The Saints' woes are historically offensive, New Orleans Saints struggling, Deuce McAllister injured

The Saints' woes are historically offensive

By: John Paulsen (jpaulsen@bullz-eye.com)

10/05/2007

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In 2006, the New Orleans Saints led the league in total offense, which is generally measured by total yards from scrimmage per game (391.5). In the previous season, the team finished 20th with 314.4, but the offseason additions of Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Reggie Bush and Sean Payton led to a tremendous turnaround last year.

Through their three games of 2007, the Saints are 25th in total offense and, as a result, are off to a winless start. They are averaging just 12.7 points per game after finishing fifth (with 25.8 ppg) in that category in 2006. Aside from Joe Horn (who wasn’t much of a factor last season), the team had no major losses on the offensive side of the ball, so this impotency is very surprising.

It made me wonder: when was the last time a team led the league in total offense and then took a nosedive the following season? The table below shows the league leaders in total offense over the last 25 seasons along with their performance the following season. The results are interesting.

Over that span, the league leader in total offense has finished, on average, in sixth place the following year. Also, the league leader has only fallen out of the top 10 five times in the following season, and out of the top 20 just once. In 1986, the Chargers started 1-7 and head coach Don Coryell was fired midseason. In 1996, the Lions went 5-11 (after going 10-6 the previous season) and Wayne Fontes was fired. In 2002, the Rams fell to 13th as a result of the switch at QB from Kurt Warner to Marc Bulger. The following year, Charlie Garner’s departure led to the Raiders’ fall to 25th, the biggest drop in the last quarter century. Head coach Bill Callahan was subsequently fired. In 2006, the Chiefs fell to 16th after the offensive-minded Dick Vermeil gave way to Herm Edwards.

So what’s the point? Whenever a team falls out of the top 10, there’s usually a good reason for it. If not, the head coach gets canned. This doesn’t seem to be the case in New Orleans.

But it’s early. The Saints’ bye couldn’t have come at a better time, and they’ve had two weeks to adjust to the idea of life without Deuce McAllister. I expect Payton and the rest of the coaching staff will make the necessary adjustments to improve the team’s offensive production. The Saints don’t have the easiest schedule, but looking forward, every single game is winnable. They’ll probably get the ship righted and finish somewhere in the top 15 in total offense, but it’s going to take some work.

PARTING SHOTS

Those who criticized Brett Favre for being indecisive over the last few years have a legitimate point, but those who wrote his skills off are currently eating some serious crow. He is averaging 301 yards per game, is completing 66% of his passes and has thrown eight touchdowns against just two interceptions. And he’s doing it all with one of the league’s worst running games. The Packers are lining up three- or four-wide on just about every down and letting Favre’s quick hitters act as the team’s running game. He’s making great decisions and has had no discernable loss of arm strength. Are the Packers legit Super Bowl contenders? Probably not, but if the defense continues to progress, they’re just a good running back away from being in the conversation...Fantasy owners waiting on Lee Evans to finally start his season got a treat on Sunday. Evans turned eight targets into six catches for 72 yards. He gave up on an errant bomb from Trent Edwards, but otherwise he looked pretty good. After a pretty rough schedule, Evans has three great matchups in the next five weeks – Cowboys, Ravens and Bengals, all at home – so he may become startable again over that span...If the Bucs don’t add a back, expect Earnest Graham and Michael Pittman to split time in place of Carnell Williams. Jon Gruden utilized a RBBC in Oakland, and if not for Williams’ initial success in his rookie season (434 yards and two scores in his first three games), he may have not been classified as a “feature” back. Pittman has always been a good receiver and Graham has shown a knack around the goal line, so the Bucs will probably rotate the two to keep both guys fresh...The X-rays on LaMont Jordan’s back were negative, which is very good news for his owners. The Raiders have a bye this week, so it will be interesting to see who Oakland starts in week 6. If Jordan can’t go, Dominic Rhodes is probably the frontrunner, but Justin Fargas is coming off a 22-carry, 179-yard effort against the Dolphins. Don’t get too excited about Fargas; he has been a career underachiever and Miami has the worst rush defense in the league...Expect Larry Johnson to build off his nice game against the Chargers, where he turned 28 touches into 158 total yards. LJ has had a brutal schedule thus far, facing the Bears, Vikings, Texans and Chargers, who are all in the top 12 in the league in rush defense. Over the next seven games, he faces the Jaguars (26th), the Bengals (28th), the Raiders (24th) twice, the Packers (15th), the Broncos (31st) and the Colts (22nd).

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