Top 10 keeper league targets
08/22/2007
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Keeper leagues are becoming more and more popular in fantasy football. In this format, every owner in the league decides on a certain number of players to keep from year to year. The number can range from one keeper to an entire roster, which is called a dynasty league. However, three- or four-player keeper leagues seem to be the most common.
In a keeper league, a fantasy owner is not only concerned with a player’s short-term fantasy value, they must also take into account the player’s long-term prospects. Every year, there are players whose values increase (or even skyrocket) as the year wears on. They might benefit from an injury or retirement of a player on their current team, or end up with a completely new team the following season. Those fantasy owners that targeted guys like Joseph Addai, Maurice Jones-Drew, Travis Henry, Cedric Benson and Brandon Jacobs last season were rewarded with top 40 fantasy talent this summer.
Owners in keeper leagues should always be looking to upgrade their keepers, so to that end, here are ten guys who should see their value increase as the year wears on. If you’re wondering where all the QBs are, it’s best to focus on the RBs and WRs when selecting your keepers. With the depth at QB, you should only keep the very best (and most proven) signal callers.
1. Michael Turner, Chargers
There was a lot of speculation that Michael “The Burner” Turner was going to be traded in the offseason, but the Chargers elected to sign the restricted free agent to a one-year deal, keeping him in San Diego for the 2007 season. In his brief, three-year career, Turner has averaged an impressive 6.0 ypc while spelling LaDainian Tomlinson, but he’ll be an unrestricted free agent after the season and will almost certainly change teams. Depending on where he lands, he could be a top 10 or top 15 back next summer. If you’re in a keeper or dynasty league, this is the guy who looks to have the biggest upside over the next 12 months. (Besides, it’s fun to mess with the bastard in your league that was lucky enough to land LT, right?)
2. Calvin Johnson, Lions
Everyone knows that Johnson is a physical specimen playing in a pass-friendly offense. The only thing standing between him and the second round is Roy Williams. The Lions could end up with a WR duo as good as the Colts, Bengals and Cardinals, which means that both Williams and Johnson could be third-round talents in 2008. Wideouts usually struggle in their first season, so if Johnson doesn’t get off to a good start, it doesn’t mean that he won’t be a dominant force by the end of the decade.
3. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
Peterson has all the running talent in the world, but he just needs to stay healthy and wrest the starting job away from Chester Taylor, who still sits atop the Vikings’ depth chart. Taylor is also talented, so this RBBC might linger for a while as the team tries to keep Peterson upright. Whoever has Peterson in your keeper league is already aware of his talent, so you may have to wait for an injury or a string of bad games before making an offer.
4. Marshawn Lynch, Bills
Lynch has had a good camp, but HC Dick Jauron has depressed his draft day value by statements indicating that he intends to run the ball by committee this season. Lynch will eventually take over; it’s just a matter of time. If the Bills do indeed go the RBBC route, the longer it goes into the season, the better chance you’ll have to snag Lynch from his owner.
5. Jerious Norwood, Falcons
Norwood’s star is likely to rise this season as he begins to take the reins from Warrick Dunn. If he becomes entrenched as the feature back, he’ll have an ADP in the first two or three rounds next summer. He dances too much, but he’s one of the fastest RBs in the league and the Falcons would be dumb not to give him the ball as much as they can.
6. Vernon Davis, 49ers
Davis is a star waiting to happen. He has all the physical tools to be the best at his position, but he needs to learn the pro game. Many expect Davis to have a breakout year and if that’s true, he might have keeper value next summer. Since Antonio Gates is a borderline third-round pick, Davis will need to contend for the league’s TE1 title to have keeper value.
7. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
Everyone is waiting for Williams to take over the RB1 duties, yet DeShaun Foster still sits atop the Panthers’ depth chart. Is Foster really the better runner? He isn’t a free agent until 2009, so we may have to wait a while for Williams to become the main man in Carolina.
8. Lendale White, Titans
Did Tennessee draft Chris Henry as a viable option at RB or did they just want to create some competition? White is talented and should be the man in Nashville. He’s going in the middle rounds, so he presents nice value this season and even better value in keeper leagues. He has been criticized for his lazy attitude at times, but if he gets his act together, his value could potentially jump into the first four rounds in 2008.
9. Brandon Jackson, Packers
The rookie has struggled in camp with his pass protection, but with Vernand Morency out with an injury, it looks like Jackson will start Week 1. Pay attention to Jackson’s progress early in the season. If he doesn’t have a solid year, Green Bay is a possible destination for Michael Turner.
10. Vincent Jackson, Chargers
Jackson had a nice run last season and is in line to be WR1 in San Diego. Unfortunately, as long as Antonio Gates is around, he will always be (at best) the second option in the passing game. Still, with a nice 2007, he could creep into the third or fourth round next season. He’s a physical specimen and has all the tools to be a dominant wideout.
Send questions and comments to jpaulsen@bullz-eye.com.