The Value Draft
08/15/2007
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Every August, I like to highlight a few players that have a good chance to outperform their draft position. Using the Average Draft Position (ADP) data from 12-team mock drafts (using Antsports’ high performance scoring system) that were conducted between 7/23 and 8/13, I’ll identify a value player or two that should be available in each round. To qualify, the player has to have an ADP of the 10th pick or later in that round. For example, to be eligible to be drafted in the second round, the player must have an ADP of 2.10 or later.
I will draft a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE as well as at least one backup at each position.
Round 1 – Steve Smith, Panthers (2.03)
This is a case where you’re zigging when everyone else is zagging. There appears to be a dropoff after the first nine RBs - LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook, Joseph Addai, Shaun Alexander, Reggie Bush and Willie Parker – so if you’re left to consider guys like Laurence Maroney, Rudi Johnson and Travis Henry, you might want to jump on Smith. He’s going to get a ton of targets and will be the focal point of the Carolina attack. Plus, while everyone else is playing catch up at RB, you’re able to get a jump on the league’s best WR.
Alternate: Laurence Maroney, Patriots (1.10)
Round 2 – Thomas Jones, Jets (2.11)
The Jets basically stole TJ from the Bears, and the vet should provide nice production for his new team. He’s a shifty runner and a good receiver. If you have one of the top picks, Jones also makes a nice backfield partner for Tomlinson or Jackson. (Be sure to check Jones’ leg injury before pulling the trigger, though.)
Alternate: Reggie Wayne, Colts (3.01)
Round 3 – T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals (3.11)
Who doesn’t love Housh? While Chad Johnson seems to be either hot or cold, Housh is a steady producer on the other side of the field. He has a great rapport with Carson Palmer and as long as CJ stays healthy, he’ll never have to deal with being double-teamed.
Alternate: Javon Walker, Broncos (3.12)
Round 4 – Ahman Green, Texans (4.10)
The Houston offense has a reputation for being a mess, but the running game is actually pretty good. Green had a nice 2006 for the Packers, and definitely showed that he still had some juice left. The Texans threw a lot of money at him, so expect the team to give him every opportunity to succeed.
Alternate: Jerious Norwood, Falcons (5.05)
Round 5 – Tatum Bell, Lions (5.12)
I know, Kevin Jones’ pending return puts Bell’s RB1 job at serious risk, but the news out of Detroit is mixed and right now, it doesn’t look like KJ will be ready to go at the start of the season. Bell might take the starting job and not let go.
Alternate: LaMont Jordan, Raiders (6.09)
Round 6 – Chris Cooley, Redskins (7.10)
It’s seems a little early to draft Cooley, but the guy is in line for a big year. He had a nice finish last season (after Jason Campbell took over) and finished as a top-five TE for the second straight season. A third appearance is well within reach.
Alternates: Vernon Davis, 49ers (7.04); Kellen Winslow, Browns (7.07)
Round 7 – Jerricho Cotchery, Jets (8.02)
In 2006, Cotchery finished as the WR19 in most PPR formats. He is a hard worker and has the trust and confidence of Chad Pennington. Another top-20 finish is a distinct possibility, which makes him a great value in the seventh round.
Alternate: Jay Cutler, Broncos (8.04)
Round 8 – Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (9.02)
Big Ben rebounded from a very tough offseason to finish as QB10 last season. There’s a new regime in town that is promising to focus more on the passing game, so Roethlisberger is a good bet to at least match (if not improve on) his output from last season.
Alternates: D.J. Hackett, Seahawks (9.03); Santonio Holmes, Steelers (9.04)
Round 9 – Ben Watson, Patriots (10.03)
Yes, the Patriots brought in a lot of receiving help, but that should help to take the pressure off of Watson to be the team’s main playmaker. He’ll benefit from fewer double-teams, so while his targets will probably decrease, his efficiency should increase, especially around the endzone.
Alternate: Kevin Curtis, Eagles (10.3)
Round 10 – Brandon Jones, Titans (10.11)
Jones is the Titans’ new WR1 and has virtually no competition for targets. He heads into the season as a very nice sleeper that should be available in the later rounds.
Alternate: Randy McMichael, Rams (11.03)
Round 11 – J.P. Losman, Bills (11.10)
Losman had a strong finish in 2006 and it seems like the light has finally gone on. He has a speedy WR and an upgraded offensive line, so his prospects look good for 2007.
Alternate: Chad Pennington, Jets (11.11)
After 11 rounds, here’s how the team looks:
QB – Ben Roethlisberger
QB – J.P. Losman
RB – Thomas Jones
RB – Ahman Green
RB – Tatum Bell
WR – Steve Smith
WR – T.J. Houshmandzadeh
WR – Jerricho Cotchery
WR – Brandon Jones
TE – Chris Cooley
TE – Ben Watson
Here’s the alternate team:
QB – Jay Cutler
QB – Chad Pennington
RB – Laurence Maroney
RB – Jerious Norwood
RB – LaMont Jordan
WR – Reggie Wayne
WR – Javon Walker
WR – D.J. Hackett / Santonio Holmes
WR – Kevin Curtis
TE – Vernon Davis / Kellen Winslow
TE – Randy McMichael
Neither team is going to set the world on fire, but they’ll compete. Remember, this is basically a worst-case scenario and you’re bound to have a shot at better players throughout the draft. Sure, you might hear a few chuckles from your league owners as you make a reach here or a reach there, but you’ll get the last laugh when those value players help to bring home a title.
Send questions and comments to jpaulsen@bullz-eye.com.