Free agency report card
07/26/2007
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With eight of my list of the top 10 free agents already off the market, it’s a good time to take a look at each signing. I’ve listed my predicted asking price, the actual average salary and a grade for each contract, based on relative value and fit for the team.
1. Gerald Wallace, SF (U)
Age: 25
2006-07 stats: 18.1 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.6 apg, .502 FG%, .325 3P%
Predicted asking price: $8-$11 M per year for six years
Signed with: Charlotte for six years, $57 million ($9.5 million per year)
I was surprised that the Bobcats decided to re-sign Wallace considering he plays the same position as last year’s first round pick, Adam Morrison. But keeping Wallace is a good move. He’s a great defender and rebounder, and a capable scorer – sort of a poor man’s Shawn Marion. This is a good signing by Charlotte, especially considering that Morrison struggled in his rookie season.
Grade: B+
2. Rashard Lewis, F (U)
Age: 27 (28 in August)
2006-07 stats: 22.4 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 2.4 apg, .461 FG%, .390 3P%
Predicted asking price: $12-$15 M per year for six years
Signed with: Orlando for six years, $110 million ($18.3 million per year)
The consensus around the league is that the Magic overpaid for Lewis. There’s no doubt he’s a talented player, but he’s not a max contract guy, and that’s exactly the kind of contract Orlando gave him. Lewis had a number of suitors, but in the end, the Magic made him an offer he simply couldn’t refuse. I’m not sure what this means for Hedo Turkoglu, a 6’10” swingman who likes to shoot the ball. (Sound familiar?)
Grade: C
3. Mo Williams, PG (U)
Age: 24 (25 in December)
2006-07 stats: 17.3 ppg, 6.1 apg, 4.8 rpg, .446 FG%, .346 3P%
Predicted asking price: $7-$9 M per year for six years
Signed with: Milwaukee for six years, $52 million ($8.7 million per year)
It looked like the Bucks would be able to lock up Mo for a little bit less, but once his camp said he was seriously considering taking the Heat’s mid-level offer (~$6 million per year), Milwaukee had no choice but to sweeten the offer. Was his agent just blowing smoke? We’ll never know. But the Bucks locked in a good young player who shouldn’t have a problem earning his contract if he continues to play like he did last season. He needs to do a better job managing the game and show more focus on defense, but as the Bucks improve, Williams could become an All-Star.
Grade: B
4. Chauncey Billups, PG (U)
Age: 30 (31 in September)
2006-07 stats: 17.0 ppg, 7.2 apg, 3.4 rpg, .427 FG%, .345 3P%
Predicted asking price: $13-$16 M per year over 4-7 years
Signed with: Detroit for four years, $46 million ($11.5 million per year)
I expected Billups to hold out for a bit more money, but considering his less than stellar playoff run, his contract isn’t too inspiring. The Pistons were able to keep their core together which means they should be near the top of the East for the next few years.
Grade: A-
5. Vince Carter, SG (U)
Age: 30
2006-07 stats: 25.2 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 4.8 apg, .454 FG%, .357 3P%
Predicted asking price: $14-$16 M per year for 4-7 years
Signed with: New Jersey for four years, $62 million ($15.5 million per year)
It’s a shame that Nenad Krstic missed almost the entire season due to injury, because the Nets would’ve had a much better idea just how far this group could go before offering up $62 million to the 30-year-old Carter. He’ll help the Nets get to the playoffs for the next few years, but he’s not bringing any titles to New Jersey (or Brooklyn).
Grade: D
6. Andres Nocioni, SF (R)
Age: 27 (28 in November)
2006-07 stats: 14.1 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.1 apg, .467 FG%, .383 3P%
Predicted asking price: $7-$8 M per year for six years
Signed with: Chicago for five years, $38 million ($7.6 million per year)
The Grizzlies offered Nocioni a bit more money, but the energetic forward decided to stay put. The Bulls got a good value in Nocioni, who can score and rebound. The only issue is that he plays basically the same position as Luol Deng.
Grade: B
7. Morris Peterson, SF (U)
Age: 29 (30 in August)
2006-07 stats: 8.9 ppg, 3.4 rpg, .429 FG%, .359 3P%
Predicted asking price: $5-$6 M per year for 3-4 years
Signed with: New Orleans for years, $24 million ($6 million per year)
This is a nice signing by the Hornets. Peterson can play either wing position, but will likely start at off guard. Remember, he’s just one year removed from a 16.8 ppg season before he fell out of favor in Toronto.
Grade: B+
8. Darko Milicic, FC (R)
Age: 22
2006-07 stats: 8.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.8 bpg, .454 FG%
Predicted asking price: $8-$10 M for six years
Signed with: Memphis for three years, $21 million ($7 million per year)
Of all the guys on this list, Darko’s value was the toughest to estimate. I’m a little surprised he didn’t lock in for six years, but since he’s just 22, his camp is probably thinking that a three-year deal in Mike Iavaroni’s up-tempo offense will maximize his numbers, setting him up for a big contract in the summer of 2010. I’m not exactly sure how Iavaroni plays both Milicic and Pau Gasol at the same time in the Suns’ offense, but the kid still has a lot of upside, so this isn’t a bad signing.
Grade: C+
The two players that round out the top 10, Charlie Bell and Anderson Varejao, have yet to be signed. Both players are restricted free agents, so there’s a possibility that their respective teams – the Bucks and the Cavs – won’t sign them to new contracts right away. There is interest in Varejao around the league, but so far nobody has offered him a deal. The Cavs are nearing luxury tax territory, so if they have to match a big offer to keep him, it’s going to cost them twice as much. Even with the Mo Williams signing, the Bucks are still under the cap and have said they’d like to bring Bell back. He’s a nice combo guard and would provide steady, veteran play from the Bucks’ bench. Expect both players to stay put for the 2007-08 season.
Send questions and comments to jpaulsen@bullz-eye.com.