Which guards had the best statistical seasons?
05/02/2007
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People like to argue about who’s the best point guard or shooting guard in the league, but since this is mostly opinion (or based on a player’s potential) there’s no real way to prove anyone right or wrong, which is a shame because that’s the purpose of any good sports debate.
I thought it would be interesting to take a statistical look at the 2006-07 season and try to determine which players had the best overall season. I decided to attack this question from a rotisserie (fantasy) basketball perspective, using the nine major statistical categories used in roto leagues: points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, FG%, 3PT%, FT% and turnovers. For the shooting percentages, I weighted each player by the number of attempts per game, so that there is some consideration given to the impact on that player’s team (i.e. it’s more impressive if a player shoots a high percentage from three point range and has a lot of attempts than it is if a player shoots a high percentage from long range and only has a few attempts).
For each category, I calculated the per game average of the top 200 players (using Efficiency Per Game as my criteria) and then determined how each player did in each category relative to that average, coming up with a point system to help determine the league’s top statistical players. A “+10” will represent the leader, while a “–10” will represent the worst player in each category, but all other players will fall somewhere in between. A positive number means that the player is better than average in that category, while a negative number means he’s below average. Summing up the nine categories gives us a final number (SUM), which allows us to compare players within a particular position.
This method isn’t infallible, but it should give us a pretty good picture of who’s putting up the best numbers.
Point Guard
| Player | Team | EPG | Pts | Rbs | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | FG% | 3% | FT% | SUM |
| Steve Nash | PHO | 24.5 | 2.8 | -5.0 | 10.0 | -1.9 | -8.7 | -8.0 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 7.6 |
| Leandro Barbosa | PHO | 16.5 | 2.5 | -7.4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | -6.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 8.0 | 2.3 | 3.4 |
| Jason Terry | DAL | 16.8 | 1.7 | -6.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | -6.4 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Kirk Hinrich | CHI | 17.5 | 1.6 | -5.3 | 3.8 | 2.6 | -5.1 | -2.0 | -2.4 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.2 |
| Chris Paul | NOR | 21.2 | 2.0 | -2.7 | 6.9 | 7.5 | -9.2 | -2.6 | -3.6 | -1.3 | 2.9 | -0.1 |
| Gilbert Arenas | WAS | 24.2 | 8.3 | -2.1 | 3.5 | 7.8 | -7.0 | -5.5 | -9.1 | -4.4 | 7.5 | -1.0 |
| Jason Kidd | NJN | 22.2 | -0.6 | 3.8 | 7.2 | 5.4 | -5.1 | -3.2 | -6.1 | -3.7 | 0.4 | -1.8 |
| Chauncey Billups | DET | 19.6 | 1.9 | -5.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | -5.9 | -0.3 | -4.2 | -3.5 | 7.1 | -3.1 |
| Tony Parker | SAN | 18.1 | 2.7 | -5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | -8.7 | -2.4 | 5.0 | 0.3 | 0.8 | -3.9 |
| Baron Davis | GSW | 21.4 | 3.6 | -2.6 | 5.9 | 10.0 | -2.2 | -4.9 | -4.2 | -10.0 | -0.4 | -4.8 |
| Andre Miller | PHI | 17.5 | -0.2 | -2.6 | 5.6 | 3.7 | -7.9 | -3.7 | -0.3 | -3.5 | 0.7 | -8.2 |
| Shaun Livingston | LAC | 12.3 | -4.1 | -5.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | -0.9 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -8.2 |
| Delonte West | BOS | 12.8 | -1.3 | -6.4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | -1.6 | -0.4 | -3.7 | -0.1 | 2.4 | -8.3 |
| Mo Williams | MIL | 17.6 | 2.0 | -1.4 | 3.7 | 2.6 | -8.5 | -4.5 | -3.0 | -2.4 | 2.4 | -9.0 |
| Allen Iverson | DEN | 21.2 | 7.1 | -6.5 | 4.9 | 7.9 | -6.6 | -9.5 | -4.5 | -5.6 | 2.8 | -10.0 |
Players with fewer than 41 games played were removed from consideration. There’s no sense in including guys that missed more than half the season with one ailment or another.
It’s no surprise that Steve Nash is at the top of the list, but it’s a bit of a shock to see Leandro Barbosa, the Sixth Man of the Year, running second. He is more of a scoring guard, so his assists aren’t that strong, but his turnovers are exceptional for a guy who attacks the hole so relentlessly. Chauncey Billups (#8) and Mo Williams (#14) are going to be free agents this summer, so it will be interesting to see how Detroit and Milwaukee handle those negotiations. It’s surprising to see that just below Williams (at #15) is Allen Iverson. His turnovers and shooting efficiency really hurt his overall numbers.
Notice any big names missing? That’s right – T.J. Ford, Monta Ellis and Deron Williams failed to crack the top 15, while Mike Bibby, Stephon Marbury and Raymond Felton failed to crack the top 30.
On a side note, since Phoenix, Boston, Dallas, Houston, Toronto and Golden State each had two point guards in the top 30 and Milwaukee had three, it means that eight teams didn’t have any: the Cavs, Kings, Heat, Hawks, Magic, Bobcats, Timberwolves and Grizzlies.
Shooting Guard
| Player | Team | EPG | Pts | Rbs | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | FG% | 3% | FT% | SUM |
| Dwyane Wade | MIA | 27.1 | 7.7 | -1.8 | 5.3 | 9.6 | 2.3 | -10.0 | 2.9 | -5.6 | 4.4 | 14.8 |
| Kobe Bryant | LAL | 27.6 | 10.0 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 4.2 | -2.0 | -6.0 | -1.1 | -4.1 | 10.0 | 14.2 |
| Manu Ginobili | SAN | 17.3 | 1.6 | -2.7 | 0.7 | 4.3 | -3.9 | -0.7 | -0.5 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 6.2 |
| Ray Allen | SEA | 21.6 | 7.1 | -2.3 | 1.4 | 4.6 | -6.6 | -3.8 | -5.5 | 1.0 | 7.5 | 3.5 |
| Andre Iguodala | PHI | 20.1 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 8.8 | -2.6 | -6.5 | -2.4 | -4.1 | 3.9 | 3.3 |
| Kevin Martin | SAC | 18.2 | 3.7 | -2.9 | -2.8 | 2.4 | -7.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 5.5 | 1.7 |
| Vince Carter | NJN | 22.7 | 6.5 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | -3.8 | -3.1 | -2.4 | -1.8 | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| Michael Redd | MIL | 20.1 | 7.3 | -4.5 | -2.1 | 2.1 | -7.1 | -1.6 | -0.5 | 2.0 | 4.9 | 0.4 |
| Anthony Parker | TOR | 13.2 | -1.2 | -4.0 | -3.0 | 0.6 | -7.4 | 6.7 | 0.6 | 5.7 | 1.4 | -0.7 |
| Brandon Roy | POR | 16.5 | 1.7 | -2.6 | 1.3 | 2.0 | -7.0 | -0.5 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 3.0 | -2.9 |
| Jason Richardson | GSW | 15.2 | 1.3 | -0.7 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 2.2 | -6.4 | 0.0 | -1.2 | -3.0 |
| Ricky Davis | MIN | 16.5 | 1.9 | -4.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | -5.2 | -2.9 | -0.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | -3.0 |
| Joe Johnson | ATL | 19.8 | 6.3 | -3.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | -6.7 | -5.0 | 0.3 | 1.8 | -0.3 | -4.1 |
| Richard Hamilton | DET | 17.2 | 3.4 | -4.4 | 1.0 | -1.5 | -6.6 | -0.8 | -0.1 | -1.6 | 5.0 | -5.6 |
| Ben Gordon | CHI | 16.5 | 4.3 | -6.0 | 0.8 | -1.7 | -6.5 | -4.8 | -1.9 | 4.6 | 5.1 | -6.1 |
It’s not surprising to see D-Wade and Kobe topping this list. Bryant’s high free throw percentage coupled with his number of attempts has a huge impact on the Lakers’ scoring. Andre Iguodala (#5) and Kevin Martin (#6) are two of the league’s top up-and-coming shooting guards. Likely Rookie of the Year winner Brandon Roy checks in at #10 with some good all around play. Other than blocks, Roy is very solid across the board. The rankings of Joe Johnson (#13) and Richard Hamilton (#14) seem low, but Rip is a no show on the boards and JJ’s turnovers hurt his overall numbers.
The biggest name missing from this list is Tracy McGrady, who came in at #18. He’s strong in points, assists and steals, but his shooting percentages drag his team down across the board.
Since the Spurs, Kings, Clippers and Sonics each have two players in the top 30 and the Warriors have three, six teams didn’t have any: the Mavs, Magic, Pacers, Celtics, Jazz and Grizzlies.
Two teams (Orlando and Memphis) don’t have a player at either position in the top 30. Ouch! These teams better find some guard help, and fast.
Which teams have the best backcourts?
Phoenix (Nash and Barbosa, 11.0)*
San Antonio (Parker and Ginobili, 2.3)*
New Jersey (Kidd and Carter, -0.2)
*Neither Barbosa nor Ginobili starts regularly, but each guy gets a ton of minutes alongside the starting point guard.
Check back next week to find out who is the top small forward, power forward and center.
Questions or comments? Send them to jpaulsen@bullz-eye.com.