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Okay, so it’s not an NCAA bracket, but admit it, Oscar pools are fun. If nothing else, you can pretend that you’re watching to see how many you get right, then place additional wagers along the way, like First Winner to Cry, First Winner to Thank Their Agent Before Their Spouse, and of course, First Winner to Spout off about What a Horrible Job Bush Is Doing as President. Actually, Jon Stewart will probably win that last one before a single name is read.

Resident BE movie critics David Medsker and Jason Zingale tag-teamed the major categories – along with a couple minor categories that we enjoy – and created a handicapper to help you through the longest dog and pony show the world has ever known. Good luck.

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Best Supporting Actor

George Clooney, “Syriana”
Matt Dillon, “Crash”
Paul Giamatti, “Cinderella Man”
Jake Gyllenhaal, “Brokeback Mountain”
William Hurt, “A History of Violence”

"That's it, Jake! Left, left, RIGHT, knock that Clooney bastard out! It's my only chance!"

The Best Supporting Actor category could, and usually does, go any which way, but the two leading candidates have to be Hollywood poster boy George Clooney and Academy Award reject Paul Giamatti. For two years running, Giamatti has been robbed of a nomination in the Best Actor category (in 2003 for “American Splendor” and in 2004 for “Sideways”), and he would have won last year’s award had he been nominated. This year, the Academy may be looking to make up for their past mistakes, but I wouldn’t put it past them to give the Oscar to George. The dark horse in all of this craziness is Jake Gyllenhaal, who deserves the award just as much as the other two men, while both Matt Dillon and William Hurt have been honored with a nomination at the wrong time, and would have had a much stronger run any other year.

And the Oscar goes to… George Clooney
And the Oscar belongs to…Paul Giamatti (Jason). Anyone but William Hurt (David).


Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, “Junebug”
Catherine Keener, “Capote”
Frances McDormand, “North Country”
Rachel Weisz, “The Constant Gardener”
Michele Williams, “Brokeback Mountain”

We hate to admit, but the first question we had when looking at this list was, “Who’s Amy Adams, and what is ‘Junebug’?” Likewise, it’s intriguing that both Charlize Theron and Frances McDormand were nominated for their performances in a movie that no one liked. Rachel Weisz gets her first nod, but joking about how stupid Americans are isn’t going to help her cause. This looks like a battle between the hard-working indie queen (Keener) and the “Dawson’s Creek” eye candy (Williams). And more often than not, the one with the bigger box office wins. That’s what happens when you try to limit the number of screeners that go out to Academy voters out of fear of piracy, Jack Valenti. You’re squashing the little man. How do you sleep at night?

And yet, a major upset seems to be afoot here. Sorry, Michele ma belle, but despite your great scene with Heath and the fishing pole, you’re going home empty handed.

And the Oscar goes to… Rachel Weisz (Jason). Catherine Keener (David).
And the Oscar belongs to… Michele Williams


Best Screenplay (Original)

Woody Allen, “Match Point”
Noah Baumbach, “The Squid and the Whale”
George Clooney and Grant Heslov, “Good Night, and Good Luck”
Stephen Gaghan, “Syriana”
Paul Haggis, “Crash”

"So what do I need to do to prepare for this role? Uh huh, eat a lot, can do. What? Shave my head? Get out of my office."

One of two very difficult Oscar races to call, the Best Screenplay categories are almost always a toss up. This year, four excellent original stories are being represented, as well as a fifth adapted story (“Syriana”), which has somehow snuck into the mix. Maybe the Academy thought that it gave “Syriana” a better chance of winning, but I’d bet my lucky stars on either Paul Haggis’ “Crash” or Noah Baumbach’s “The Squid and the Whale,” who already have a combined thirteen Best Screenplay awards this year. The other nominees (“Match Point” and “Good Night, and Good Luck”) feel like long-shots, but don’t count them out until the winner is announced.

And the Oscar goes to… “Crash”
And the Oscar belongs to… “Crash” (Jason). “The Squid and the Whale.” (David - Note: I haven’t seen the movie. I just can’t bring myself to root for “Crash.”)


Best Screenplay (Adapted)

Jeffrey Caine, “The Constant Gardener”
Dan Futterman, “Capote”
Tony Kushner & Eric Roth, “Munich”
Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana, “Brokeback Mountain
Josh Olson, “A History of Violence”

"Who's the king?"

The other screenplay category has just as much potential to disappoint, but I have little doubt that “Brokeback Mountain” won’t take home the honors. Both “Capote” (based on the author’s own novel “In Cold Blood”) and “A History of Violence” (based on the graphic novel of the same name) have equal chances of prevailing over the favorite, but the adaptation of Annie Proulx’s short story is virtually bulletproof. And while Steven Spielberg’s “Munich” will most definitely go home empty handed, Jeffrey Caine’s screenplay for “The Constant Gardener” has a slim chance of stealing all of the glory.

And the Oscar goes/belongs to… “Brokeback Mountain”


Best Actor

Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Capote”
Terrence Howard, “Hustle & Flow”
Heath Ledger, “Brokeback Mountain”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Walk the Line”
David Strathairn, “Good Night and Good Luck”

"Capote? Ennis? Murrow? Dey all bitches. Cash is cool, though."

This is easily the finest collection of performances in any single category this year. Any one of them could win the statue, and it would be perfectly okay with us. Strathairn has been doing quality work for years, and this is his first (!) Oscar nomination. Joaquin Phoenix’s metamorphosis into Johnny Cash, particularly his singing, was uncanny. Terrence Howard blew up all over the place, landing the sweet role in “Hustle & Flow” and a different role altogether in “Crash.” Ledger was the front-runner in this category pretty much since “Brokeback” hit the theaters, but the tide, it appears, is turning…

When my wife and I saw “The Talented Mr. Ripley,” we joked that those in the cast that hadn’t yet won Oscars soon would. The cast, as you may recall, featured Gwyneth Paltrow (winner, “Shakespeare in Love”), Matt Damon (winner, “Good Will Hunting”), Cate Blanchett (won last year for “The Aviator”), Jude Law (nominated for “Ripley”)…and Philip Seymour Hoffman. The “Ripley” cast is about to make it four out of five.

And the Oscar goes/belongs to… Philip Seymour Hoffman


Best Actress

Judi Dench, “Mrs. Henderson Presents”
Felicity Huffman, “Transamerica”
Keira Knightley, “Pride & Prejudice”
Charlize Theron, “North Country”
Reese Witherspoon, “Walk the Line”

Remember: Johnny Cash could get chicks even when drunk and amped up to his eyelids on pills. You can't.

By far one of the more straightforward races of the night, the competition for Best Actress is really just a face-off between Reese Witherspoon (“Walk the Line”) and Felicity Huffman (“Transamerica”), both of whom won Best Acting honors at this year’s Golden Globes. Typically, I’d favor the nominee who took home the gold for Best Actress in a Drama, but it’s hard to resist Witherspoon’s enchanting biographical portrayal of the late June Carter. The other women (Keira Knightley, Charlize Theron and Judi Dench) are just filler nominees for the remaining three slots, and have no real chance of winning, so don’t expect any surprises with this one.

And the Oscar goes to… Reese Witherspoon (Jason). Felicity Huffman (David).
And the Oscar belongs to… Reese Witherspoon (Jason). Felicity Huffman (David).


Best Director

George Clooney, “Good Night, and Good Luck”
Paul Haggis, “Crash”
Ang Lee, “Brokeback Mountain”
Bennett Miller, “Capote”
Steven Spielberg, “Munich”

I’ve had enough with Ang Lee being paraded around the award shows as if he’s some kind of saint. That being said, he still deserves the award, because despite the fact that it didn’t take any special courage to direct this project, his masterful work on the film is one that should be applauded. The other two hopefuls are, of course, Paul Haggis (“Crash”) and George Clooney (“Good Night, and Good Luck”), but I wouldn’t expect an upset unless there was another Florida Voting Incident where half of the Academy punched “Clooney” instead of “Lee.” What could be even more confusing for these old farts (and let’s face it, most of these Academy voters are ancient), is the possibility that they think they’re voting for Clooney in the Best Supporting Actor category, rather than Director.

And the Oscar goes/belongs to… Ang Lee


Best Picture

"Brokeback Mountain"
"Capote"
"Crash"
"Good Night, and Good Luck"
"Munich"

You’re all thinking it, so let’s just go out and say it: this is the most overrated bunch of Best Picture nominees we’ve seen in years. Usually it’s just one movie, maybe two, that spoils the bunch, but each one of these movies is flawed in one regard or another. Now look back to 1994. The nominees were “Pulp Fiction,” “Four Weddings and a Funeral,” “The Shawshank Redemption,” “Quiz Show,” and “Forrest Gump,” which won the Oscar. We may never see another batch of movies that good in one year ever again.

So anyway, the Gay Cowboy Movie wins, hands down. It’s already a part of the pop culture lexicon, and that will not soon be taken away.

And the Oscar goes to… “Brokeback Mountain”
And the Oscar belongs to… “Brokeback Mountain” (David). “Crash” (Jason).


Best Documentary

“Darwin’s Nightmare”
“Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room”
“March of the Penguins”
“Murderball”
“Street Fight”

Usually this category is a slam dunk, with one movie clearly standing head and shoulders above the others. This year, however, it is at least a three-horse race (and possibly four, I haven’t seen two of them). “Enron” will boil your blood but will also blow you away, while “Murderball” was one of the best action movies of 2005. But this is going to go to the little penguin movie that outgrossed such summer slam dunks as “The Island,” “Bewitched,” “Stealth,” and every single movie nominated for Best Picture (though “Brokeback Mountain” is hot on its heels). I hope the award is accepted by those brave cameramen who stayed for months in Antarctica to shoot that incredible footage.

And the Oscar goes/belongs to… “March of the Penguins”


Best Animated Feature

“Howl’s Moving Castle”
“Tim Burton’s Corpse Bride”
“Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit”

Maybe Gromit can catch a woman for Wallace that for once is not hideously ugly.

Forget about “Howl’s Moving Castle,” that doesn’t have a prayer. This comes down to American Gothic versus Bumbling Brits. “The Curse of the Were-Rabbit” was the far better movie, but that alone isn’t enough to take the prize, not in a category where the insufferable “Shrek” can beat out “Monsters, Inc.,” which is its superior in every way. To Burton’s credit, “Corpse Bride” is stunning to look at, and if the Academy voters are anything like my mother, that will settle it, picking “Corpse Bride” over “Were-Rabbit” because those Wallace & Gromit people are just so damn ugly. Still, every time Aardman was nominated in the Best Animated Short Feature category, they won. That streak doesn’t look to end here.

And the Oscar goes/belongs to… “Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit”


~David Medsker & Jason Zingale
dmedsker@bullz-eye.com / jzingale@bullz-eye.com