2006 Fantasy Football Tiered Rankings: Quarterbacks
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It’s wise to wait on picking your starting quarterback until the middle rounds. After the top few players, there are a lot of guys that will put up similar numbers, and there's more of a fall off at the other positions. You need a good QB to compete for your league’s title, but you certainly don’t need a great one.
If you're intent on picking up a QB early, Peyton Manning is the only one even worth considering in the first two rounds. The Colts will open the season with a gaping hole in their backfield, but how exactly that affects Manning is up for debate. He'll probably be asked to throw the ball even more this year, at least early on while the team figures out if either Dominic Rhodes or rookie Joseph Addai can carry the load. Whether that'll lead to more yards and touchdowns for Manning or just more forced throws and interceptions remains to be seen.
The three guys after Manning also have questions that need answered. Will Carson Palmer be fully recovered from that devasting postseason knee injury? How much will the loss of David Givens affect Tom Brady, and when will Deion Branch report to camp? Can Donovan McNabb stay healthy and, more important, can he return to elite status without having an elite receiver to throw to? This kind of uncertainty at the top would suggest that you'd almost be foolish to burn an early pick on one of the big guns when you can wait for guys like Marc Bulger, Jake Delhomme, Eli Manning and Drew Bledsoe. Meanwhile, guys like Aaron Brooks, David Carr and Ben Roethlisberger could easily outproduce their draft positions. Sure, they've all got their issues but so does just about every other QB on this list, including the #1 guy.
NOTE: Numbers in parentheses represent Average Draft Position (ADP) from AntSports.com for drafts conducted 7/1-7/17. Any player rankings based on AntSports.com's High Performance Scoring system.
THE STUD
Peyton Manning, IND (2.05)
16 games, 3,747 passing yards, 28 TD, 10 INT; 45 rushing yards, 0 TD
The Colts lost Edge, so Peyton will have to throw a little more...needs one of his untested RBs to step up and keep the Indy running game a threat. (MORE: BE's athlete profile)
ONE NOTCH BELOW
Carson Palmer, CIN (4.07)
16 games, 3,836 passing yards, 32 TD, 12 INT; 41 rushing yards, 1 TD
Palmer would be right there with Manning if not for the knee injury he suffered during last year’s playoffs...the news out of Cincy has been good, meaning he could be starting in week one. (MORE: BE's athlete profile)
Tom Brady, NE (4.09)
16 games, 4,110 passing yards, 26 TD, 14 INT; 89 rushing yards, 1 TD
Going as the #2 QB in some drafts but Brady doesn't have the upside that Palmer does...for years, Brady was a much better NFL QB than fantasy QB but these days, he's a near lock for 3,800 yards and 25 TD...along with Manning, one of the most durable QBs around. (MORE: BE's athlete profile)
Donovan McNabb, PHI (6.01)
9 games, 2,507 passing yards, 16 TD, 9 INT; 55 rushing yards, 1 TD
Once again, the Eagles don’t have any WRs of note...will McNabb still be as productive without T.O.? Not quite, but he’s still a top 10 guy...injuries are becoming more of a concern for him. (MORE: BE's athlete profile)
SOLID STARTERS
Matt Hasselbeck, SEA (5.07)
16 games, 3,459 passing yards, 24 TD, 9 INT; 124 rushing yards, 1 TD
Hasselbeck really came into his own last season, finishing as the #5 QB...has a tougher schedule, but he should still have a productive season.
Eli Manning, NYG (6.04)
16 games, 3,762 passing yards, 24 TD, 17 INT; 80 rushing yards, 1 TD
The "other" Manning has progressed faster than anyone had suspected, finishing as the #4 QB last season...with all of his weapons back and another year under his belt, he should continue to improve.
Drew Bledsoe, DAL (7.07)
16 games, 3,639 passing yards, 23 TD, 17 INT; 50 rushing yards, 2 TD
Bledsoe was a big surprise in 2005, finishing as the #6 QB...has clearly found new life in Dallas with Bill Parcells...Terrell Owens will be the best WR he’s ever played with.
Trent Green, KC (8.09)
16 games, 4,014 passing yards, 17 TD, 10 INT; 82 rushing yards, 0 TD
Green was steady last season, but was terrific down the stretch, putting up #3 QB numbers...the departure of his offensive coordinator will hurt, but all of his other weapons are back.
Marc Bulger, STL (6.05)
8 games, 2,297 passing yards, 14 TD, 9 INT; 29 rushing yards, 0 TD
This will be Bulger’s first year playing for someone other than Mike Martz...will the Rams offense be as productive as it has been in years past? If Torry Holt and Steven Jackson have anything to say about it, it will.
Jake Plummer, DEN (8.12)
16 games, 3,366 passing yards, 18 TD, 7 INT; 151 rushing yards, 2 TD
The arrival of Javon Walker will give Plummer one of the best starting WR tandems in the league, so he shouldn’t have a problem matching his stats from 2005, when he finished as the #11 QB.
FRINGE STARTERS
Kurt Warner, ARI (7.11)
10 games, 2,713 passing yards, 11 TD, 9 INT; 28 rushing yards, 0 TD
In Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and the newly acquired Edgerrin James, Warner has tremendous weapons to work with...also has Matt Leinart looming behind him...if he stays healthy and plays reasonably well, there’s no reason to think that Warner won’t be the starter all season.
Daunte Culpepper, MIA (7.01)
7 games, 1,564 passing yards, 6 TD, 12 INT; 147 passing yards, 1 TD
Culpepper has been overrated for some time now, but he’s joining a Miami team on the rise...they’ve got some weapons (Chris Chambers, Ronnie Brown, Randy McMichael) so if Culpepper plays well, Miami’s offense should be productive.
Jake Delhomme, CAR (7.04)
16 games, 3,421 passing yards, 24 TD, 16 INT; 31 rushing yards, 1 TD
Delhomme finished as the #12 QB last season, helping Steve Smith to have the best year of any WR...Keyshawn Johnson has been added to the mix and it looks like DeShaun Foster will be the featured back...could crack the top 10, but he probably won’t set the world on fire.
Michael Vick, ATL (8.08)
15 games, 2,412 passing yards, 15 TD, 13 INT; 597 rushing yards, 6 TD
Vick isn’t a very accurate passer, but he was pretty effective last season, finishing as the #9 QB...his favorite target is his TE, Alge Crumpler, and he really needs a WR to step up his game...injury is always a concern with rushing QBs. (MORE: BE's athlete profile)
Drew Brees, NO (9.10)
16 games, 3,576 passing yards, 24 TD, 15 INT; 49 rushing yards, 1 TD
Brees starts his tenure in New Orleans with several good weapons: Joe Horn, Donte Stallworth, Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister...how quickly he gets acclimated will determine if he’ll be able to put up top 10 numbers again in 2006.
UNCERTAINTY LOOMS
Brett Favre, GB (10.02)
16 games, 3881 passing yards, 20 TD, 29 INT; 62 rushing yards, 0 TD
The loss of Javon Walker is going to hurt the Packers passing game, so Favre is going to have to make due with the likes of Robert Ferguson and Rod Gardner...this close to retirement, Favre is still starter caliber. (MORE: BE's athlete profile)
Aaron Brooks, OAK (9.11)
13 games, 2882 passing yards, 13 TD, 17 INT; 281 rushing yards, 2 TD
Brooks has a gun for an arm, but he’s never been a very cerebral player...should be a good fit for the vertical passing game that Al Davis wants to run in Oakland...having Randy Moss and Jerry Porter (assuming he’s not traded) doesn’t hurt either.
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (10.06)
12 games, 2385 passing yards, 17 TD, 9 INT; 69 rushing yards, 3 TD
Coming off a Super Bowl victory, things were looking good for Big Ben, but a motorcycle accident changed all of that...looks like he’ll be fine to start the season, but it’s not a sure thing that he’ll hold up. (MORE: BE's athlete profile)
Steve McNair, BAL (11.03)
14 games, 3,161 passing yards, 16 TD, 11 INT; 139 rushing yards, 1 TD
After a strange offseason, McNair lands in Baltimore, giving them a good quarterback for the first time in years...he loves throwing to his tight ends, and Todd Heap will help him get settled.
YOUNG GUNS WITH UPSIDE
David Carr, HOU (11.09)
16 games, 2,488 passing yards, 14 TD, 11 INT; 308 rushing yards, 1 TD
Carr had to be hoping that the Texans would have taken Reggie Bush, but he’s got to be happy about the addition of Eric Moulds, who finally gives the team a good #2 WR to pair with Andre Johnson.
Chris Simms, TB (12.01)
11 games, 2,035 passing yards, 10 TD, 7 INT; 31 rushing yards, 0 TD
Simms has been working hard this season and appears to be poised for a breakout year...John Gruden’s QBs are usually productive, but Simms could use a bounce-back year from Michael Clayton.
Byron Leftwich, JAX (10.07)
11 games, 2,123 passing yards, 15 TD, 5 INT; 67 rushing yards, 2 TD
The loss of Jimmy Smith is going to hurt Leftwich, who seems to perennially be on the verge of a breakout season.
THE WILY VETS
Jon Kitna, DET (12.05)
3 games, 99 passing yards, 0 TD, 2 INT; 14 rushing yards, 0 TD
Kitna was great for Cincy before Carson Palmer stepped in, so he should be effective in Mike Martz’ offense...Martz is known for trading blitz protection for extra receivers, so don’t be surprised if Kitna misses a few games.
Mark Brunell, WAS (13.09)
16 games, 3,050 passing yards, 23 TD, 10 INT; 111 rushing yards, 0 TD
Don’t sleep on Brunell, who will make a very good fantasy backup as part of Al Saunders’ offense.
THE REST
Philip Rivers, SD (12.07)
2 games, 115 passing yards, 0 TD, 1 INT; -1 rushing yards, 0 TD
Although it’s a mistake to call yourself “Philip” instead of “Phil” when you are a professional football player, the news out of San Diego this summer has been mostly good...Rivers is lucky because he’s had a couple of years to develop and he’s got two great weapons in Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson.
Billy Volek, TEN (13.07)
6 games, 474 passing yards, 4 TD, 2 INT; 3 rushing yards, 0 TD
Volek has been pretty good when he starts and already has a nice rapport with Drew Bennett...has to produce early, because Vince Young is breathing down his neck...also, look out for reports that the Titans could sign Kerry Collins.
Brad Johnson, MIN (14.04)
15 games, 1,885 passing yards, 12 TD, 4 INT; 53 rushing yards, 0 TD
Johnson was pretty effective after taking over for Daunte Culpepper in the middle of 2005...a good spot starter.
Charlie Frye, CLE (14.08)
7 games, 1,002 passing yards, 4 TD, 6 INT; 52 rushing yards, 1 TD
Browns fans are hoping that Frye is the guy that will finally provide some consistency at the QB position...loss of C LeCharles Bentley certainly hurts Frye’s ’06 prospects.
Matt Leinart, ARI (14.05)
No Stats
Leinart has to be eager to play with Fitzgerald, Boldin and James, but he’ll have to wait for a Kurt Warner injury, meltdown or departure. (MORE: BE's athlete profile)
Vince Young, TEN (14.12)
No stats
Young might have a tough time transitioning to the pro level, but he’ll probably get his chance sooner rather than later with only Billy Volek ahead of him...again, though, pay attention to the Kerry Collins rumors. (MORE: BE's athlete profile)
Kerry Collins, FA (N/A)
15 games, 3,759 passing yards, 20 TD, 12 INT; 39 rushing yards, 1 TD
Obviously not worth a draft pick unless he signs...reports say he's negotiating with Tennessee, and word is he'd have the inside track on the starting job.