Power Players: Sleepers, busts, bargains and more
08/11/2006
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Every year, certain players can and do dictate the success of fantasy owners worldwide. Whether it's the latest chic sleeper that everyone's latching onto (and therefore nudging up their draft boards), a player whose value could fluctuate on a new team, or a hot rookie who's going to produce fantasy-relevant numbers for his owners, these are the guys that will tip the balance of power in your league.
This year, we've bunched many of these Power Players into five categories: sleepers, bargains, busts, spotlight players and impact rookies. There may not seem like much of a difference between sleepers and bargains, but we tend to disagree. Whereas sleepers are players that may not be counted on for much in the coming season (someone like Santana Moss last year), bargains are those players who are on just about everybody's fantasy radar but could very easily outperform their draft status (2005's Carson Palmer or Larry Johnson). Spotlight players, meanwhile, are the guys who, for one reason or another, have major questions surrounding their 2006 seasons, whether it's Willie Parker's ability to handle the load in Pittsburgh or Terrell Owens' ability to keep his yap shut in Dallas long enough to regain his elite receiver status. As for impact rookies...well, if you need that explained to you, maybe you should take up fantasy knitting.
SLEEPERS
Chris Simms, QB, Tampa Bay
Traditionally, quarterbacks in John Gruden offenses have been quite productive. Rich Gannon was just an average journeyman before Gruden turned him into a MVP candidate. Chris Simms is a physically gifted quarterback and has reportedly been putting in a lot of time this offseason studying film and working out, a strong indication that he’s determined to improve on a so-so season in 2005.
Greg Jones, RB, Jacksonville
Do you trust Fred Taylor? Of course not. The last time Taylor played in all 16 of his team’s games? 2003. Since then, Fragile Fred has suited up for 25 of his team’s 32 regular season games: 14 in 2004 and 11 last season. On top of that, Taylor is now 30 years old. Meet Greg Jones, the back who will benefit from Taylor’s next injury. Jones was good-not-great in his second year with the Jags, getting at least 25 carries in a game twice last season and topping the century mark on both occasions. Now, let’s not get too excited here, because Jones isn’t necessarily an elite back waiting in the wings, but he could be a very good RB2 for your team, should Taylor once again find himself sidelined. Don’t draft Jones as a starter, obviously, because Jacksonville’s starting gig still belongs to Taylor, but he’s well worth adding in the late rounds for depth and potential. In TD-heavy leagues, Jones is even more intriguing since he steals most of Taylor’s goal-line carries, and for those of you ballsy enough to select Fred Taylor on draft day, Jones is a must.
Kellen Winslow, TE, Cleveland
The highlight of Kellen Winslow's career? Getting drafted. Trying a wheelie when you’ve never ridden a motorcycle before isn’t the best move in the world, and Winslow’s ADP is suffering because of it. The reports out of Cleveland indicate that he’s completely back, and if they’re accurate, he could be primed for a big season. With the absence of Braylon Edwards, the team lacks playmakers in the receiving corps, so new QB Charlie Frye will have to depend on Winslow to make catches over the middle.
Antonio Bryant, WR, San Francisco
Antonio Bryant comes to San Francisco to be the team’s #1 WR. He’s a physically gifted receiver and has all the tools to be a great player in the league, but you have to wonder why two teams have already let him go. Still, QB Alex Smith should improve as should the entire offense, so Bryant could have a top 20 year when it’s all said and done.
Cedric Houston, RB, New York Jets
Like Jacksonville’s Greg Jones, second-year back Cedric Houston isn’t all that exciting. He’s a backup with little experience and even fewer moves, but what Houston has going for him is potential opportunity. Curtis Martin is nearing the end. In fact, judging by his painfully slow recovery from "minor" knee surgery, Martin may already have reached the end. It’s been a great run for the former Pitt star but all signs point to Martin splitting carries in 2006 at the very least, and the odds of him missing a chunk of the season appear to go up every day. The Jets, meanwhile, are probably eager to turn the page under rookie head coach Eric Mangini, which would seem to translate to a long look at Houston in the starting role. As a rookie in 2005, Houston was solid in relief of an injured Martin, running for 213 yards and a touchdown in three late-season starts, and he could be even better in ’06 should the Jets need, or want, to call on him.
Alex Smith, TE, Tampa Bay
Confusion reigned last season when Alex Smith caught two touchdowns in week one. "Wait," some said, "isn’t Alex Smith a quarterback?" Fantasy owners quickly figured out that this Smith was the rookie tight end for the Buccaneers and made him one of the hottest waiver-wire additions for week two. Unfortunately, the rook never reached paydirt again and ended the season with a rather pedestrian 41 receptions and 367 yards to go along with those two lonely scores. So what’s to like this year? For starters, he’s big (6-4, 258 pounds), smart and athletic, and he’s got good hands. Add to that the reports that the Bucs are designing more plays for Smith in the red zone this season and you can see why he’s looking like a sneaky late-round pick. He and Chris Simms seem to click on the field and Jon Gruden loves the kid, so expect Smith to build on his solid though unspectacular rookie campaign. At the very least, maybe he’ll spread out his touchdowns a bit more this season.
Bargains
Kevin Jones, RB, Detroit
For many owners, hearing the name "Kevin Jones" still stings. Riding a monster wave of preseason hype and coming off a promising rookie campaign, Jones slipped into the first round in many drafts last year. Unfortunately for those who bit on the second-year back, Jones’ breakout fantasy season was just that: a fantasy. Jones finished the year with just 664 yards and five touchdowns, down from the 1,133 yards he put up during his rookie season. So what happened? For starters, Steve Mariucci grossly underutilized his starting back, giving him at least 15 touches in just seven of 13 games. In fact, Jones topped 20 carries three times in Detroit’s first six games but never once saw more than 18 from that point on. No wonder he didn’t log a single 100-yard performance. Times have changed in Detroit, though, with a rookie head coach (Rod Marinelli) and a new offensive coordinator (Mike Martz) who are reportedly drooling over Jones’ skill set and intend to use Jones as a three-down back in the mold of Marshall Faulk. Granted, the Lions don’t have the personnel that the Rams did in Martz’s "Greatest Show on Turf" heyday, and comparisons to Faulk at this point in Jones’ career are insanely lofty, to say the least, but that’s still great news for the former Virginia Tech standout. Those who pounced on Jones last season may have just been a year early. If you manage to snag Jones as your third back, congrats, you may have gotten the steal of this year’s draft.
Chris Cooley, TE, Washington
Riddle us this: Chris Cooley finishes 2005 as the #4 TE and an offensive coordinator (Al Saunders) who loves to use his tight end takes over the playcalling for the Redskins, and Cooley is currently the seventh TE off the board? Instead of drafting a diminishing Tony Gonzalez or a fragile Jeremy Shockey in the 4th/5th rounds, we’ll take the value by selecting Cooley in the 6th or 7th.
Aaron Brooks, QB, Oakland
In the movie "Bull Durham," Crash Davis describes talented but raw pitcher Nuke LaLoosh as a guy with "a million-dollar arm and a 10-cent head." Aaron Brooks may very well be football’s equivalent to Tim Robbins’ character. For years, the former New Orleans quarterback teased Saints fans and coaches by parlaying his sensational athleticism into mediocre results. The numbers have always been tantalizing, throwing for at least 3,500 yards every year from 2001 to 2004 and topping 24 touchdowns in three of those four seasons, but poor decision-making has led to a career 56.4 completion percentage and an average of 15 interceptions every year since 2001. But here’s the thing: as maddening as Brooks can be to his coaches and fans, his numbers before last season have always been very good from a fantasy perspective. In 2001 he threw for 3,832 yards and 26 TD, followed by a 3,572-yard/27-TD campaign in ’02 and a 3,546-yard/24-TD performance in ’03. A 13/17 TD/INT ratio last year got him yanked from the starting role and ultimately led to his release, but he landed on his feet in Oakland with new coach Art Shell. Brooks’ reputation will cause him to slide in drafts this season, but check out his supporting cast before dismissing him. Lamont Jordan is one of the best all-purpose backs in football and, while Joe Horn is (or was, depending on your outlook) a very good receiver, he’s no Randy Moss. If there’s one thing Brooks does exceptionally well, it’s throw the deep ball, which means Brooks-to-Moss should be a prolific fantasy tandem this season. As your QB2, you could do a lot worse than Aaron Brooks.
LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego
LT, undervalued? Believe it. Most owners agree that Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson are the top three picks in the draft, but while personal preference seems to dictate whether LJ or Alexander are #1, Tomlinson has consistently found himself low man on this Big Three totem pole in drafts this year. Why? Well, LJ’s the sexy pick, the guy who set the world on fire last year and who many think could assault the record books this season as KC’s undisputed starter, while Alexander’s the reigning MVP and the NFL’s single-season TD king. Then there’s LT, a guy who scored 15 total touchdowns in 2002, 17 in ‘03, 18 in ’04 and 20 last season, a guy whose career worst rushing total of 1,236 came during his rookie season, a guy who’s twice topped 1,600 rushing yards in a season, a guy who hauled in 100 receptions three years ago, and a guy who’s still just 27. So Drew Brees is gone and the untested Phillip Rivers is behind center? Big deal. Johnson lost his best tackle, Willie Roaf, to retirement and Alexander watched his best guard, Steve Hutchinson, sign with the Vikings. LJ and Alexander will be great this year, but so will LT, and while a case can be made for all of them going #1, you may wind up with fantasy’s top back if you’re "stuck" with Tomlinson at #3.
Donald Driver, WR, Green Bay
With the departure of Javon Walker, Donald Driver becomes the #1 WR in Green Bay and the only dependable receiver for Brett Favre. His current ADP of 4.06 makes him WR16 in recent mock drafts and he’ll almost certainly outperform that draft position. He’s not physically imposing, but he’s got great hands, can make space for himself and has a great rapport with Favre. The entire Packer offense will benefit if another WR can step up, but Driver will have a good year regardless, and should be vying for a spot in the top 10 by the end of the season.
Corey Dillon, RB, New England
Once the Patriots drafted Laurence Maroney, the rumors started flying about Corey Dillon fighting for his job. He laughed them off, saying that he’s not worried about Maroney. Dillon is a known quantity and unless he’s horribly injured, he’s the starting RB for New England. He’s currently RB25 off the board and barring something bizarre, he’ll finish in the top 15-20.
BUSTS
Domanick Davis, RB, Houston
When Domanick Davis is healthy, he's one of the best all-round backs in football and, in turn, one of the top fantasy RB available. Going as a low-first/high-second round pick in most drafts, though, Davis has more potential to break fantasy owners' hearts than just about anybody else in the league. His recovery from offseason knee surgery has been alarmingly slow, and he's been spending more time on the sidelines than on the field during camp. For a guy whose durability has always been a major question mark, this is bad, bad news. Feel free to take Davis if you simply can't pass up his well-rounded game, but we'd recommend crossing your fingers when you do.
Willis McGahee, RB, Buffalo
We can’t argue with where Willis McGahee is being drafted amongst RBs (after Brian Westbrook, but before Kevin Jones), but we take issue with taking McGahee ahead of some of the WRs that are going later -- Torry Holt (2.06), Larry Fitzgerald (2.08), Randy Moss (2.10), Marvin Harrison (2.10) and Anquan Boldin (2.12). He was the #40 RB over the last half of the season and the team lost Eric Moulds to the Texans. The QB situation isn’t any better than last season, so why the uptick in McGahee’s value? One note: if third string QB Craig Nall wins the starting job, it might give the Bills’ pass offense the boost that McGahee needs to find some running room.
Marvin Harrison, WR, Indianapolis
It’s unfair to lump Marvin Harrison into this group of busts when, in reality, it’d be more accurate to label him as simply overrated. The days of 110 catches of 1,500 yards are long gone for Harrison, and yet some owners still insist on drafting the retro version of the diminutive receiver out of Syracuse. We’re not suggesting he’s not a very good fantasy receiver -- his 1,146-yard, 12-TD performance last season would immediately prove us wrong -- but he certainly doesn’t belong in the elite class of fantasy wide outs anymore. If not for the presence of Reggie Wayne, we may be singing a different tune but the fact of the matter is, since Wayne became the bona fide #2 receiver Indy had been craving for years, Harrison’s numbers have suffered. Of course, Colts coaches and fans aren’t complaining because having another talented receiver at Peyton Manning’s disposal makes them a much better team, but there’s no denying it depresses Harrison’s fantasy worth. Don’t pass him up once the cream of the WR crop has been selected, because Harrison is a near lock for 1,100 yards and 10 TD, but don’t jump the gun expecting a rebound to his 2002 levels. Unless Wayne goes down with an injury, it just ain’t happenin’.
Tom Brady, QB, New England
Tom Brady is a great quarterback that has already proved all that he has to prove on the field. But last year’s big numbers were an aberration. The team was dealing with all sorts of injuries to their defense and had to throw a ton to stay in games. Brady will still get his share of yards and touchdowns, but don’t expect numbers like last year. The Patriots want to run the ball and with a healthy Corey Dillon (and Laurence Maroney to back him up) they should be able to control the line of scrimmage and win games on the ground. Brady will still be a good fantasy QB, but better value can be had in later rounds.
DeShaun Foster, RB, Carolina
Don’t get us wrong: if DeShaun Foster starts the entire season, he’ll have a great year. We just don’t see it happening. Foster has had an injury-riddled career and it seems unlikely that he’ll make it through a season where he gets 250+ carries. The team’s selection of DeAngelo Williams in the first round of the draft doesn’t inspire confidence either. Proceed with caution.
Curtis Martin, RB, New York Jets/Ahman Green, RB, Green Bay
For the same reasons that Cedric Houston and Samkon Gado earned a spot on our list of sleepers, veterans Ahman Green and Curtis Martin find themselves among the other potential fantasy busts. Back in the day, you couldn’t do much better than Green or Martin as your RB1. Steady, reliable, multi-dimensional and durable, these two epitomized the term "workhorse" for years. Well, it’s time to put the horses out to pasture. Sure, there’s a chance Green and Martin could rebound from their respective surgeries and deliver quality seasons in 2006, but do you really want to be the guy rolling the dice on them? And while it likely wouldn’t take more than a fourth- or even fifth-round pick to secure their services, a wasted pick in the fourth round is still a wasted pick. There are better gambles out there, including Gado and Houston, who will come at a much lower price. Let the loyal, daring or uneducated take Green and Martin on draft day.
Plaxico Burress, WR, New York Giants
This kid’s got all the tools to be a dominant receiver and, in his first season with the Giants, he finally showed flashes of realizing his potential, delivering his first 1000-yard season since 2002 and tying his career high with seven touchdowns. Plax developed good chemistry with Eli Manning early on, notching five catches in each of his first six games and hauling in five TDs in that stretch. In a week-four win against St. Louis, Burress was a beast, abusing the Rams’ secondary for 10 catches, 204 yards and two touchdowns. So what’s not to like? Well, we’re not the only ones wondering if this kid will ever grow up. One day after catching one pass in the Giants’ 23-0 playoff loss to the Panthers, Burress skipped a mandatory meeting with HC Tom Coughlin, and he declined to workout with Manning (as did Jeremy Shockey) during the offseason. He’s a good receiver, but he’s certainly not a #1. Unfortunately, that’s likely where he’ll be drafted this year, and that’s too steep of a price to pay for a guy whose numbers have never matched his talent.
SPOTLIGHT PLAYERS
Terrell Owens, WR, Dallas
Was there a more publicized offseason move than the Cowboys’ acquisition of Terrell Owens? You knew that Bill Parcells would make a run at him -- his ego wouldn’t accept anything less. After Owens’ relationship with Andy Reid imploded, the general consensus was that Parcells was the only coach in the league that could rein in the troublesome Owens. If T.O. can keep it together, Dallas has a chance to have a very good season and Owens could be on of your draft's bigger bargains. The Cowboys’ offense made great strides last season and Owens is a giant upgrade over Keyshawn Johnson. He just needs to understand that Drew Bledsoe can’t throw to him every play, and he has to hope that Dallas fans have forgotten about his trips to the midfield star a few years ago.
Edgerrin James, RB, Arizona
Just typing "Edgerrin James, RB, Arizona" is weird. Ever since Indy passed on Ricky Williams to select James in the 1999 draft, his face has been nearly as synonymous with the Colts as Peyton Manning’s. But now Edge is in Arizona, toting the rock for a Cardinals team that ranked dead last in rushing yards last season. Of course, much of that had to do with the dudes lining up in the Arizona backfield last season, but the main culprit was the Cards’ weak offensive line. Can James make up for his line’s deficiencies? We shall see. The good news for Edge is that, with Kurt Warner chucking the ball downfield to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, defenses won’t be able to key on the run. Whether or not that’s enough to help James maintain his status as a mid-first-round pick remains to be seen.
Willie Parker, RB, Pittsburgh
So can FWP (Fast Willie Parker) handle it? That’s the question fantasy owners must ask themselves this season. Parker became a household name during his record-setting 75-yard touchdown run in Super Bowl XL, but fantasy owners knew about him long before that. With Duce Staley out for most of the season, Parker became the Lightning to Jerome Bettis’ Thunder, scampering for 1,202 yards on 255 carries during his breakout season. But with the Steelers feeding the Bus near the goal line, FWP only scored four times, a paltry number for a starting fantasy running back. With Bettis now enjoying retirement, though, the door should be open for Parker to assume full-time duty, right? Nope. Parker is a homerun threat whenever he touches the ball but the Steelers still don’t trust him enough to make him The Guy, instead relying on Staley and Verron Haynes to get the tough yards, and they’re also reportedly talking to the Falcons about a potential TJ Duckett deal. That said, Parker is still in line to see more carries than the 255 he got last year. The question, again, is can he handle it? Considering many owners will draft him as a RB2 or even a RB1, that’s a very important question.
Thomas Jones/Cedric Benson, RBs, Chicago
One of these guys is going to have plenty of fantasy value this year. The question, of course, is who? One look at Jones’ numbers from last season tells us two things: First, when given the opportunity, Jones can be a very good fantasy back, and second, whoever wins the starting job in Chicago will put up numbers. Despite drafting Benson fourth overall last season, the Bears gave the starting gig to Jones (in large part due to Benson’s lengthy holdout) and he never looked back, racking up 1,335 yards and 9 TD. This season, though, the job’s open to competition and Jones isn’t happy. He reported late and is currently sitting out with a hamstring injury. The Bears still say that, once Jones returns, he’ll have a chance to win the job outright but we wouldn’t count on it. Both backs are somewhat risky propositions this season but, given the choice, we’d rather roll the dice on Benson. The Bears, after all, took him #4 for a reason. That said, be careful here because Benson seems to be going pretty high despite the uncertainty and, even if he wins the job, Jones will likely get plenty of work in relief and on third down.
Randy Moss, WR, Oakland
It’s been a year since Randy Moss was traded to the Raiders and the team continues to change around him. Norv Turner is out and Art Shell is in. Kerry Collins is out and Aaron Brooks is in. LaMont Jordan was acquired to keep defenses honest. He’s got a good #2 WR, Jerry Porter, starting opposite of him. It’s time to make some progress; it’s time to win some games. Since John Gruden’s departure, the Raiders have been perennial underachievers, and it’s up to Moss to lead them. Sure, Shell has the opportunity to bring some discipline (that’s been lacking since Gruden left), but Moss has to lead with his play and regain his status an an elite receiver, on the field and in fantasy circles.
Donovan McNabb, QB, Philadelphia
Donovan McNabb is still in Philadelphia, picking up the pieces after the Owens debacle. He’s left without a true #1 WR, and will have to stay patient with Reggie Brown as he tries to fill that role. He’s got the dynamic Brian Westbrook to take the pressure off, but he’ll need another dependable target or two to help carry the load and earn his status as a top fantasy QB. Luckily for him, no self-respecting Philly fan blames McNabb for the Owens implosion but he’s only built up so much capital and if the Eagles don’t start winning again soon, he’ll be hearing the Boo Birds on a regular basis.
Brett Favre, QB, Green Bay
Brett Favre took a long time to make his decision to return for another season. As longtime Favre admirers, a part of us wants him to return to improve on a miserable 4-12 season. Another part is worried that this season could be as bad or worse. But there is reason for optimism. The Packers had a good draft, bolstering a defense that needed bolstering. Unfortunately, it’s their offense that is in transition. They lost Javon Walker due to last summer’s contract dispute and there is a lot of uncertainty at running back, with Ahman Green, Najeh Davenport and Samkon Gado vying for the job. Even more than John Elway, Favre deserves to ride off into the sunset, only he doesn’t have a Terrell Davis-type or a good defense to lean on. Favre's probably nothing more than a fantasy backup at this point, though the possibility of a rebound season can never be completely dismissed, making #4 an intriguing pick this year.
IMPACT ROOKIES
Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans
Everyone thought that the Texans were going to take Reggie Bush with the #1 pick, but the team decided to roll the dice on a defensive end. The Saints were the beneficiary of the decision and snatched up Bush as soon as they had the chance. There's no doubting that he's a dynamic impact player, but he’s not very big, so the team would be wise to use him in the same way that the Eagles use Brian Westbrook. They need to feed him the ball in space, where he can use his speed and cutback ability to make people miss. It’s tough to predict how many rushing yards he’ll put up this season, especially with the presence of Deuce McAllister. Regardless, Bush should get plenty of touches, whether they’re rushes or catches.
Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis
Many questioned the Colts’ decision to let Edgerrin James hit free agency. He produced at least 1,800 yards in each of the last two seasons, and someone has to fill that role. The team selected Joseph Addai at the end of the first round for that reason. He’ll have to beat out Dominic Rhodes for the job, which is tougher than it sounds. Rhodes has been pretty good when he’s had the opportunity to play -- 1,328 total yards and 9 TDs in 2001 -- but thus far he hasn’t shown anything to indicate that he’s a special back. The key for Addai will be to pick up the blitz protections as soon as possible, because he won’t be on the field if he doesn’t know how to protect the team’s franchise player.
DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina
DeShaun Foster has had an injury-riddled career thus far, and though he’s been productive when he’s played, the team was looking for some insurance this offseason and found it in first round draft pick DeAngelo Williams. Williams is a talented back and will probably have the opportunity to start at some point this season. Oftentimes, during training camp position battles, the favorite is overvalued while the underdog is undervalued, so don’t sleep on Williams. The Panthers drafted him in the first round for a reason.
Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco
Vernon Davis is an explosive athlete with the skills to contribute immediately. Considering that the 49ers are desperate for playmakers on the offensive end, Davis has a golden opportunity to have a productive season. The difficulty of learning how to play the tight end position in the NFL is working against him, but Jeremy Shockey was fairly productive in his first season, so there’s no reason Davis can’t be as well.
Lendale White, RB, Tennessee
Don't forget about this guy. Sure, he likely has to climb over Chris Brown and Travis Henry to get a chance to start, but we're not exactly talking about scaling Everest here. Besides, White should get a fair amount of goal line carries at some point this season. He may not have much fantasy value in the early going, but keeper league owners should take notice because he's the future in Tennessee. And if Chris Brown is traded (or injured...again), the future may be sooner than we think.