Offseason Movement
08/11/2006
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Did you do your homework this offseason? Sure, you saw that Daunte Culpepper’s now in South Beach, Edgerrin James packed up for the desert, Drew Brees took his bum shoulder to the bayou and, of course, the biggest mouth in the league now resides in the biggest state in the continental US. But, as Austin Powers would say, what does it all mean, man? You’d be a fool to draft the Indy version of Edge now that he’s playing behind a far inferior line in Arizona, and don’t sleep on Chester Taylor, Jamal Lewis’ former caddy who now has a chance to start in Minnesota.
Below is a team-by-team breakdown of all the fantasy-relevant moves that were made this offseason, including trades, signings and draft picks, and how those moves should affect the players involved, both directly and indirectly.
Atlanta Falcons - no significant moves
Arizona Cardinals - Dennis Green’s boys
significantly upgraded at running back by adding perennial fantasy stud Edgerrin
James. The problem for James, though, is that he is going from an A-plus
offense to a B-minus offense. There’s no doubt he will be the man, but will
there be enough holes for him to run through in the desert? We think not, and
James has probably gone from a top-5 fantasy back to a top-10 or even 12 by
changing teams. Of course, his reputation will likely land him in the early
part of the first round in most drafts, but we won’t be targeting him there.
STOCK: down
The Cards also drafted QB Matt Leinart from USC. Leinart was said to be more NFL-ready than either Vince Young or Jay Cutler, the other two top quarterbacks in April’s draft. And that’s a good thing, because Kurt Warner is always a sack away from the injury report. Still, some reports have suggested that Leinart could be the team’s #3 QB, and contract talks have not gone well this summer, so it looks like he could be at least a year away from fantasy relevance. STOCK: promising, but not ready
Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens brought in
creaky veteran QB Steve McNair, reuniting him with his old teammate, WR
Derrick Mason. The two of them formed quite a tandem for several years in Tennessee, but there are many questions in Baltimore. Namely, can McNair show the flashes
of brilliance he showed last year with the Titans, or were those flickers of a
flame that is almost burned out. McNair can make a valuable second stringer or
bye week quarterback, but proceed at your own risk. In fact, considering
McNair’s tendency to throw to his tight ends, the player who likely benefits
most from his arrival is TE Todd Heap. STOCK: level
The Ravens also brought in veteran RB Mike Anderson from Denver. Anderson is slated to be the backup to Jamal Lewis, who tanked big-time last year. So basically, Anderson went from sharing playing time in Denver to sharing playing time in Baltimore. But this is a team that runs first, so if Lewis stinks again the Ravens have a decent backup now. Taking second stringers is always a better bet for the late rounds, but Anderson could be a decent sleeper. STOCK: down, but watch this situation throughout the season
Buffalo Bills - If you consider adding veteran RB Anthony
Thomas as significant, you should just mail in your league fees and skip
the draft entirely because you’re in trouble. Thomas adds depth to Buffalo’s backfield, but that’s about it. STOCK: does it matter?
Carolina Panthers - The Panthers had a late
first-round draft pick and surprised some by selecting RB DeAngelo Williams.
We weren’t surprised, because we’ve seen him play and, trust us, this kid is
going to be a stud. If we were an NFL GM, we would’ve even considered drafting Williams
over Reggie Bush, because he’s just that explosive. And when DeShaun Foster
goes down with an injury (and he will), Williams will become the man in Charlotte. Hell, if Nick Goings can run through that O-line, anybody can. Grab Williams as
your fourth or fifth back if you can, and get in while the gettin’s good in
keeper leagues. STOCK: very promising
The Panthers also added veteran WR Keyshawn Johnson to play alongside perennial fantasy powerhouse Steve Smith. You can triple-team Smith (and many teams did last year) and he’ll still find a way to get open, but Keyshawn will get his chances too, especially in the red zone. Still, he is a crybaby and crybabies make for inconsistent fantasy players. Of course, as long as he takes some defensive attention away from Smith, Key will be getting the job done, even if he’s not all that attractive on draft day. STOCK: level
Chicago Bears - The Bears signed QB Brian
Griese, giving them a solid backup behind oft- injured started Rex
Grossman. But it is never a good idea to draft a Bears QB in a fantasy league,
let alone a mediocre one like Griese coming off a major knee injury. STOCK:
down
Cincinnati Bengals - No significant moves, but
any fantasy owner who drafts a Bengal should check the police blotter as well
as the injury report each week. Ba-dum, CHA! Thank you.
Cleveland Browns - The Browns made some big
moves, but only one that will have any kind of fantasy impact this year. That’s
the signing of WR Joe Jurevicius. However, Jurevicius is coming from a
high-powered Seattle offense to a run-first team with a defensive-minded coach.
So don’t expect him to light things up on the shores of Lake Erie. Plus, he’s
got second-year QB Charlie Frye throwing him passes. Don’t let last year’s 10
TDs fool you - Jurevicius isn’t worth anything more than a late pick, if that.
STOCK: way down
The signing of C LeCharles Bentley looked to raise the stock of several Browns this season, including Frye, RB Reuben Droughns and TE Kellen Winslow. Unfortunately, Bentley went down with a knee injury on the first day of camp and will miss the entire season, so now everyone on the Browns’ offense is once again a crapshoot. Don’t forget about Winslow come draft day, though. He’s got the skills to be a top-5 tight end and should come at a big discount.
Dallas Cowboys - You know him as T.O., as in
stud WR Terrell Owens. The same guy who stomped on the Cowboys logo as a
‘Niner and whose attitude got him kicked out of Philly is now a member of Bill
Parcells’ offense. And if you’re smart and lucky, you’ll make him a member of
your fantasy offense, and you should be able to do so at a slight discount this
year. This dude is the most productive fantasy receiver when he’s healthy and
keeping his mouth shut, plus he’s got a decent running game and QB in Dallas, and is nearly two years removed from ankle surgery. STOCK: up
The Cowboys also picked up K Mike Vanderjagt, who is a great fantasy performer in a dome or when you don’t have a clutch kick to make. And Bill Parcells changes kickers like some people change underwear, so Vanderjagt had better not soil his. STOCK: down
Denver Broncos - The Broncos had an aging (Rod Smith)
and underachieving (Ashlie Lelie) receiving corps, so they dealt a future draft
pick for disgruntled Packers WR Javon Walker, a guy with great hands who
is going to put up some nice numbers if fully recovered from knee surgery. Plus,
with fantasy dud Lelie having one foot out the door, Walker should have no
problem stepping in as the #2 or even #1 receiver. And while QB Jake Plummer is
no Brett Favre, he’s adequate and the offensive line in Denver is more than
adequate. STOCK: up
The Broncos also drafted Vanderbilt QB Jay Cutler. While Jake Plummer is a solid fantasy QB, Cutler is the future. Still, this is Plummer’s team until further notice, so don’t bother targeting Cutler in your redraft leagues unless you know something we all don’t. STOCK: promising
Detroit Lions - The most significant move for
the Lions was adding Mike Martz as offensive coordinator. Really, does anyone
besides Rod Marinelli even know the head coach’s name? Having Martz at the
offensive helm is going to mean points for fantasy owners, because the Lions
also added WR Corey Bradford to a solid group of receivers. Bradford is fast and has good hands, but David Carr couldn’t complete passes to him while
lying on the ground. The only problem from a fantasy standpoint is that the
Lions will likely spread the ball around. STOCK: up
The Lions also added QB Jon Kitna, who almost took the Bengals to a playoff win last season when Carson Palmer went down with an injury, and former Tampa Bay and Cleveland signal-caller Luke McCown. But it’s Kitna’s job, at least for now, but that doesn’t make him anything more than an iffy fantasy option, at least until he proves he’s a capable starter. And let’s face it, this is the Lions. So even though he’s playing for Mike Martz’s offense, you should proceed with caution if you draft him. STOCK: dangerous
Going back to Martz, his presence could turn guys like WR Roy Williams, RB Kevin Jones and even WR Charles Rogers into fantasy gold. Williams has already proven to be a very good fantasy receiver when healthy, and we all know how much Martz likes to throw the ball. In fact, in this offense, even a perennial bust like Rogers needs to be monitored by fantasy owners; Martz has been talking him up this offseason and he could find his way into the starting lineup. As for Jones, who crapped out on owners that bought into the preseason hype last year, Martz envisions him being this offense’s Marshall Faulk. Grand expectations, for sure, but with his skill set and, now, the opportunity to stay on the field for all three downs, Jones could be a steal. Funny how one coach, and a coordinator at that, can change the entire outlook of a team.
Green Bay Packers - The only significant move
here is that Brett Favre is returning for at least one more year. And
while he slipped as a fantasy QB last year, Favre is still a very adequate
starter in some leagues (preferably ones that don’t count interceptions) and
more than adequate backup in others. STOCK: level
Houston Texans - WR Eric Moulds comes
over from the Bills and while the Texans supposedly have beefed up their
offensive line, Moulds was a declining talent in Buffalo and you shouldn’t
expect him to have any fantasy impact whatsoever in Houston. The Texans,
however, are hoping Moulds’ presence frees up Andre Johnson, and so are
Johnson’s fantasy owners. STOCK: way down
Indianapolis Colts - The loss of Edgerrin
James creates a huge hole in the backfield for the Colts. And while they are a
pass-oriented offense behind Peyton Manning, the Colts always used a strong
ground attack to balance its passing game and keep defenses honest. So that
will give starting RB Dominic Rhodes a shot at becoming a starting
fantasy back. But Rhodes is unproven and injury prone. STOCK: promising
The other part of the RB equation in Indy is LSU tailback Joseph Addai, whom the Colts nabbed at the end of the first round of April’s draft. Addai will compete with and probably lose the starting job to Rhodes, but watch out for this kid because he’s coming into the best offense in the league and Rhodes is still unproven. Plus, it’s no secret that the Colts want Addai to be the long-term answer, so even if he doesn’t nail down a starting role in camp and preseason, don’t forget about him. Keeper leaguers will want to take a flier this year. STOCK: promising but unproven
The Colts also signed veteran K Adam Vinatieri away from the Patriots to replace Mike Vanderjagt. This guy could have a big season because he’s coming into an offense that puts points on the board. He also has proven he can kick a winning field goal in a blizzard, and in Indy he’ll be kicking indoors for at least eight games. Mark my words; Vinatieri will lead all kickers in points this season. STOCK: up
Jacksonville Jaguars - no significant moves
Kansas City Chiefs - With Priest Holmes likely forced to retire, Larry Johnson finally gets a chance to be The Man and, as such, LJ is going #1 overall in many drafts. But the Chiefs recently traded a draft pick to the Saints for RB Michael Bennett, which means that Bennett, not Holmes or Dee Brown, will back up Johnson this season. Bennett’s production was spotty in Minnesota but just going to this offense increases his fantasy value. Of course, anything short of an LJ injury still makes Bennett a fantasy afterthought. STOCK: up
Miami Dolphins - The Dolphins upgraded at QB
by signing Daunte Culpepper away from Minnesota. But is Culpepper fully
recovered from last year’s knee injury? Luckily, he has a strong defense in Miami that will keep him on the field and let him show South Florida what he is capable
of. But this former top-3 fantasy QB is now only a top 6 or 7, and he doesn’t
have Randy Moss to throw to anymore, though admittedly Chris Chambers is no
slouch. STOCK: down or uncertain at best
Minnesota Vikings - The Vikings made three
moves to upgrade their mediocre run game. First of all, they signed Baltimore backup RB Chester Taylor, who will take over here as the main man. But
what really gives Taylor fantasy value is that the Vikings also signed G Steve
Hutchinson and FB Tony Richardson. Hutchinson is arguably the best guard in the
game and was last seen paving lanes for Shaun Alexander in Seattle. Richardson, meanwhile, was one of the main reasons Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson had the
fantasy numbers they did. That, and the loss of Culpepper will surely put more
emphasis on the run game. In other words, Taylor makes an ideal second RB with
the chance to produce RB1 numbers.STOCK: way up
The Vikings also signed K Ryan Longwell from the division rival Packers. Minnesota teams historically have good offenses, so look for Longwell to get his opportunities. And Longwell always delivered in Green Bay, so he’s definitely worth a shot as your fantasy kicker. STOCK: slightly up
New England Patriots - The Patriots signed WR Reche
Caldwell, but that doesn’t mean you should draft him or any receiver other
than Deion Branch for your fantasy squad, and that includes rookie Chad Jackson.
Caldwell was a good receiver in San Diego, but he’s coming into a
receiver-by-committee show in New England. STOCK: down
Corey Dillon is either hurt or not giving 100%, which in turn gives fantasy owners fits. So Bill Belichick drafted RB Laurence Maroney with his top selection this year. Maroney could light a fire under Dillon’s ass or, best-case scenario for Maroney owners, he’ll become the starter at some point during the season. Either way, he’s going to get a few carries. But with the situation uncertain at RB, it’s not a good idea to draft Maroney unless he’s your fourth or fifth pick or your stockpiling your keeper team for the future. STOCK: promising
New Orleans Saints - The Saints made a move
that may be even bigger than signing RB Reggie Bush. They signed QB Drew
Brees away from San Diego. Brees leaves behind the best pass receiving tight
ends in the game in Antonio Gates and one of the best running backs in LaDanian
Tomlinson. But he can’t be any more inconsistent than Aaron Brooks, and he’s
got Joe Horn as a target along with Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush to hand
off to. Still, Brees has lost some fantasy value simply by becoming a Saint,
and that doesn’t take into account his rehabbing should injury. STOCK:
down
Reggie Bush is going to be a star in this league, and
a fantasy stud eventually. But this year, he will likely split carries with
McAllister, with Deuce getting the tough yards and goal-line carries, while
spending plenty of time on the field as a receiver. He’s going to get better,
but Bush should be pretty good this year too. That said, don’t go overrating
him on draft day because the chances of him cracking 1,000 rushing yards and 10
TDs are very, very remote. STOCK: very promising
New York Giants - The only significant move
made by the Giants from a fantasy standpoint is that they drafted another
weapon for QB Eli Manning, and that is WR Sinorice Moss. Moss is a
speedster and the younger brother of Redskin Santana Moss, who made a huge
fantasy splash a year ago. Young Mr. Moss won’t really be worth drafting now
because the Giants have Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer and Jeremy Shockey to
spread the ball around to, but keep an eye on him. STOCK: promising
New York Jets - The Jets are getting tired of
Chad Pennington’s healthy/not healthy routine, so they signed veteran QB Patrick
Ramsey, who will get a chance to start while Pennington recovers from another
shoulder surgery. Ramsey was a more viable fantasy QB in Washington, where he
had more receiver options and a better running game. The Jets have no one
beyond Lavernanues Coles to throw to, and RB Curtis Martin is another year
older. Plus, Ramsey may very well not even start. You can do better. Much
better. STOCK: down
Oakland Raiders - The big move made by the men
in black was to let QB Kerry Collins go and to sign QB Aaron Brooks to
take his place. Brooks is the kind of fantasy quarterback who gives owners
anxiety attacks. He will throw for 400 yards and 3 touchdowns one week, then
throw for 170 yards and 3 interceptions the week after.
But Brooks has never had a weapon like Randy Moss before, and new HC Art Shell is committed to resurrecting this offense. STOCK: up
Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles were
desperate for receiving help after Terrell Owens left for Dallas, so they
picked up WR Jabar Gaffney from Houston. Gaffney is not going to light
it up, and there are still question marks about the health of QB Donovan McNabb
as it is. But if Todd Pinkston does not return quickly from an Achilles injury,
Gaffney might be an excellent waiver wire option. STOCK: level
Pittsburgh Steelers - No significant moves,
but all eyes are on QB Ben Roethlisberger, who messed up his face in a
motorcycle accident early in the summer. Lucky for the Steelers, Big Ben’s arms
and legs were spared, but did he lose any brain cells or will he have any
vision problems on the field? Those are big, and very real, question marks. STOCK:
down
St. Louis Rams - RB Marshall Faulk is
out for the season now with a knee injury and likely out for the rest of his
career. That means that Steven Jackson, who was already the starter,
will become more of the stud fantasy player he has shown glimpses of. He may
even develop into a top 5 RB, depending on how things shake out with the Rams
under new HC Scott Linehan. New backup Mo Williams will provide some depth for St. Louis but he doesn’t deserve any fantasy attention. STOCK: up
San Diego Chargers - Letting Drew Brees
leave as a free agent to New Orleans means that third year QB Phillip Rivers
will have a shot at running this potent offense. But this dude is greener than
Bruce Banner on his worst day, meaning he’ll get extra attention from hungry
pass rushers and could be forced into throwing a lot of interceptions. Give him
a year or two and Rivers will likely to be a fantasy standout. Could it happen
this year? Absolutely. But don’t count on it. STOCK: promising but
unproven
San Francisco 49ers - The ‘Niners picked up WR
Antonio Bryant from Cleveland, and on this awful offensive team, he’ll
have a chance to be the #1 receiver. Bryant didn’t live up to expectations in Dallas but, last year for the Browns, he delivered his first 1000-yard season playing in
another meager offense. Bryant should be a solid though inconsistent third or
fourth receiver, but in San Fran it’d be wise to keep your expectations in
check. STOCK: level
The ‘Niners also used their first pick on big TE Vernon Davis from Maryland. It may take a few years for him to develop in the pros, but Davis has the capability to be a big play guy ala Tony Gonzales or Antonio Gates. Word is he’s having a tough time picking up the offense this summer so, unless you’re in a keeper league, don’t look at Davis as anything more than a backup with immense potential that nonetheless likely won’t be realized for another year or two. STOCK: promising but unproven
Seattle Seahawks - The Seahawks signed veteran
WR Nate Burleson, who flopped big time in his attempt to fill Randy
Moss’ considerable shoes in Minnesota last season and, in the process, burned
more than a few fantasy owners. Seattle gave Burleson good money and he’ll
likely start alongside Darrell Jackson, allowing Bobby Engram to remain the
team’s third receiver. In a starting role with less pressure, Burleson could
deliver some good stats as a fourth or even third fantasy receiver. STOCK:
up, but with caution
Also worth noting is that G Steve Hutchinson signed with Minnesota, leaving a gaping hole in the line that RB Shaun Alexander used to run through. Alexander is still a top 3 back in fantasy play, but he’s going to lose more than a few yards and scoring chances this year. STOCK: slightly down
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The only real noteworthy
moves in Tampa involved the departure of two quarterbacks: Brian Griese (Chicago) and Luke McCown (Detroit). With no real competition to speak of, this is clearly Chris
Simms’ job. Is Phil’s son up to the task? We certainly wouldn’t recommend
him for your starting job, but as a promising youngster with a talented cast
around him, loads of upside and very little mileage on his tires, Simms is a
prime sleeper and an excellent target in keeper drafts. STOCK: up
Tennessee Titans - The Titans’ big move was
signing veteran WR David Givens away from the Patriots. With Drew
Bennett constantly battling injuries, Givens automatically becomes the top
target of QB Billy Volek. Givens has always been solid as a pass catcher, and
he’s got either Volek or standout rookie QB Vince Young to throw him the
ball. If OC Norm Chow’s offense clicks, it could be a breakout fantasy year for
Givens. STOCK: up
Billy Volek is the new starter in Tennessee after Steve McNair left for Baltimore. Anyone who saw Volek come in for half of the 2004 season to spell McNair saw some serious fantasy potential. But last season Volek was awful in relief, so he definitely has something to prove. He’s not worth a starting spot on your fantasy roster, but could surprise and should be selected as a QB3 or, if you’re really feeling lucky, QB2. Either way, if you’re targeting Volek, watch the rumors linking Tennessee to free agent Kerry Collins. STOCK: up
Vince Young is going to be a fantasy stud, but that probably won’t be anytime soon. That said, HC Jeff Fisher is talking about getting Young some PT this season, so keep an eye on this situation. STOCK: very promising
Also worth noting is that the Titans spent their second-round draft choice on RB LenDale White from USC. White was the man in college before Reggie Bush came along, and is an explosive back who is going to be a good fantasy option once the Titans figure out what to do with Chris Brown and Travis Henry. Until then, keep White on your radar, especially in keeper leagues. STOCK: promising with some potential this year
Washington Redskins - The Redskins shored up
their receiving corp by adding WRs Brandon Lloyd from San Francisco and
Antwaan Randle El from Pittsburgh. That gives QB Mark Brunell a few more
targets to go along with Santana Moss and a strong running game that features
RB Clinton Portis. Lloyd, who has unlimited potential and a skill set scouts
drool over, should see his fantasy stock improve after coming over from
the ‘Niners, but with all of those receivers, how many points is he really
going to net you? STOCK: level
Antwaan Randle El is coming from a run-first offense with several weapons at receiver to basically the same thing in Washington. So don’t expect any big fantasy production out of him unless Moss goes down with an injury. Even then, Randle El projects ideally as a #3 receiver. STOCK: level