Fantasy Baseball Preview: Third Basemen
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Once upon a time, third base was one of the toughest positions to fill on draft day. Not anymore. Aside from the five players listed in the "Studs" tier, there are anywhere from five to 10 other guys who would look great manning the hot corner for your fantasy squad.
Alex Rodriguez has ruled the roost at the position ever since he came over to the Yankees, and rightfully so, but you're still getting a superstar if you take any of the four players listed below him. While we admit including Colorado's Garrett Atkins in that first tier may seem a bit premature after just one year of elite production, so many factors play to his advantage (age, lineup protection, home park) that he just may have a better shot at repeating his 2006 line than Aramis Ramirez. A-Rod, Miguel Cabrera and David Wright, meanwhile, are the kinds of guys that championship keeper-league teams are built on and they should be topping this list for a very long time.
But beyond those first five players, you'll find a top-flight base stealer (Chone Figgins), the National League's Rookie of the Year runner-up (Ryan Zimmerman), two MVP-caliber players (Scott Rolen and Chipper Jones) and a flat-out masher (Troy Glaus). Even the guys listed in the "Fallbacks" tier are very good fallback options, including 30-homer man Joe Crede, bounceback candidates Aubrey Huff and Morgan Ensberg, and promising youngster Edwin Encarnacion. In fact, what was once one of the thinnest positions on draft day now looks to have one of the deepest talent pools in the game.
*NOTE: All analysis based on standard 5x5 roto leagues
THE STUDS
Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
.290, 35 HR, 121 RBI, 113 runs, 15 SB, 139 K, 90 BB, 572 AB
Don’t fall into the trap: Alex Rodriguez is still an easy top-five pick. People love to crack on A-Rod, and his crunch-time numbers warrant some of the abuse, but this is fantasy baseball. In a down year, Rodriguez gave his owners a .290-35-121 line with 15 steals; this after a .321-48-130-21 performance in 2005. And did you know he’s still just 31? Expect that average to creep back up over .300 and look for big power numbers once again.
David Wright, Mets
.311, 26 HR, 116 RBI, 96 runs, 20 SB, 113 K, 66 BB, 582 AB
A second-half power outage left Wright four homers shy of 30 after going deep 20 times before the break. The average remained constant, though, and while the 24-year-old Wright may only be the second-best third baseman in New York, he also happens to be the second-best third baseman in the league. Wright should top the 30-homer plateau in 2007 while stuffing the boxscore in every other category, making him an ideal guy to build your team around.
Miguel Cabrera, Marlins
.339, 26 HR, 114 RBI, 112 runs, 9 SB, 108 K, 86 BB, 576 AB
Some people question Cabrera’s work ethic and commitment to the game, but nobody can question his talent. With an average line of .318-31-114-106 over the last three years, Miggy is one of the game’s bona fide studs. His home run total dropped by seven last year but his average shot up 16 points and he set a career high with 86 walks. The Marlins’ young lineup is impressive, and the 23-year-old Cabrera is one of the main reasons why. Expect more of the same from him in 2007.
Garrett Atkins, Rockies
.329, 29 HR, 120 RBI, 117 runs, 4 SB, 76 K, 79 BB, 602 AB
As a 26-year-old rookie, Atkins delivered a solid .287-13-89 line for the Rockies two years ago, but even the most optimistic projections heading into last season didn’t have Atkins sniffing the numbers he put up in ’07. Some will be tempted to attribute his breakout to Coors field, but Atkins hit 14 of his 29 homers on the road. Is there room for more? Maybe a few extra homers, but come on, let’s not get greedy!
Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
.291, 38 HR, 119 RBI, 93 runs, 2 SB, 62 K, 50 BB, 594 AB
Once traveling the road to Bustville, Ramirez revived his career after coming to Chicago from Pittsburgh. Still just 28, a .290-33-110 season is practically a given for Ramirez if he can avoid the DL. After signing a huge extension in the offseason, some worry that Ramirez could disappoint now that he got his payday, but we’ll give the guy the benefit of the doubt. With power production like that, we’d be foolish not to.
THE STARS
Chone Figgins, Angels
.267, 9 HR, 62 RBI, 93 runs, 52 SB, 100 K, 65 BB, 604 AB
Figgins wasn’t quite the fantasy force he was in 2005, losing 23 points off his average and stealing 10 fewer bases. That said, Figgins is a career .285 hitter and he’s one of the surest bets to steal 50 bases this year. Losing second-base eligibility is a bummer for his owners, but he still qualifies as an outfielder, and while hitting ninth may deflate his value a bit, Figgins is a fine mid-round target for owners looking for steals.
Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
.287, 20 HR, 110 RBI, 84 runs,11 SB, 120 K, 61 BB, 614 AB
The stage was set for Zimmerman to crap out in his rookie season. The hype surrounding the 22-year-old third baseman was deafening last spring, and in turn his fantasy stock soared as he climbed up draft boards. How did the youngster respond? By driving in 110 runs, flashing more power than was expected of him, stealing 11 bases and finishing second in the NL ROY voting to Florida’s Hanley Ramirez. Zimmerman appears primed for a fantastic career, so don’t expect a sophomore slump in ’07. In fact, an uptick in average and homers is a real possibility.
Scott Rolen, Cardinals
.296, 22 HR, 95 RBI, 94 runs, 7 SB, 69 K, 56 BB, 521 AB
It wasn’t a vintage Scott Rolen season, but 2007 proved to be a very promising bounce-back year for the 31-year-old Gold Glover. After a superb 2004 campaign (.314-34-124-109), a sore back limited Rolen to 56 games two years ago. He rebounded by hitting .331-14-57 in the first half last season but then tailed off to the tune of .253-8-38 after the break. Now two years removed from his back problems, expect a more consistent performance from Rolen with numbers approaching his 2004 line.
Chipper Jones, Braves
.324, 26 HR, 86 RBI, 87 runs, 6 SB, 73 K, 61 BB, 411 AB
You can’t count on more than 110 games from Chipper these days (110 last year, 109 in 2005) thanks to some chronic foot problems, but you can count on those 110 games being highly productive. Following 2004’s dreadful .248 average, Jones has bounced back with numbers more in line with his .304 career mark. His days of double-digit steals are long gone but Chipper, now 34, obviously has plenty of pop left in his bat.
Troy Glaus, Blue Jays
.252, 38 HR, 104 RBI, 105 runs, 3 SB, 134 K, 86 BB, 540 AB
Speaking of pop, Glaus followed up 2005’s .258-37-97 line with even more power production in his first season with the Jays. Even better is the fact that, after playing in a combined 149 games for the Angels in 2003-04, Glaus has logged an average of 151 games the past two years. The average is a bit of a downer but Glaus plays in a potent lineup and, for some lucky owners, he may even qualify at short.
THE FALLBACKS
Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
.281, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 91 runs, 5 SB, 129 K, 54 BB, 597 AB
That’s not what anybody was expecting from Tracy following his promising 2005 season of .308-27-72. He’s still just 26, though, and he’s healthy after dealing with a knee injury during the second half last season. As the projected #3 hitter in Arizona’s improving lineup, expect numbers more aligned with Tracy’s 2005 season, with a 30-homer campaign in a best-case scenario.
Joe Crede, White Sox
.283, 30 HR, 94 RBI, 76 runs, 0 SB, 58 K, 28 BB, 544 AB
After several disappointing seasons for the South Siders, Joe Crede finally delivered on some of his perceived potential, not only smacking 30 homers but also topping a .280 for the first time in his four full seasons. Recurring back problems could limit him a bit, but he managed to play 150 games last year despite the injury. We’re not ready to say Crede has arrived, so be careful on draft day, but last year was certainly encouraging.
Aubrey Huff, Orioles
.267, 21 HR, 66 RBI, 57 runs, 0 SB, 64 K, 50 BB, 454 AB
Back in the American League, Huff could be a nice little bargain this year. He was never an elite fantasy option but in 2003-04, the 30 year old averaged .304-31-105, and in 2005 he hit 22 homers and drove in 92 runs despite a .261 average. He sputtered a bit after last year’s trade to Houston but he should be in a nice position to drive in runs as the Orioles’ starting left fielder. Even better, Huff also qualifies at third.
Adrian Beltre, Mariners
.268, 25 HR, 89 RBI, 88 runs, 11 SB, 118 K, 47 BB, 620 AB
That’s a little better, anyway. Remember that .334-48-121-104 season Beltre had with the Dodgers three years ago? Well, forget about it. Since parlaying that monster contract year into a monster contract with the Mariners, Beltre’s hit a total of 44 homers and driven in 176 runs, all with a tidy .262 average. There’s no reason to expect anything more from Beltre than what he provided last year, which is fine assuming you’re not counting on 48 homers and 121 RBI from him.
Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
.276, 15 HR, 72 RBI, 60 runs, 6 SB, 78 K, 41 BB, 406 AB
At just 24, Encarnacion is loaded with upside. Whether he makes good on that upside remains to be seen, but last season’s .276-15-72 line was a good first step. With Rich Aurilia in San Francisco, Encarnacion should have third base all to himself, and if his plate discipline continues to improve, he could deliver a .280-20-85 season with close to double-digit steals.
Morgan Ensberg, Astros
.235, 23 HR, 58 RBI, 67 runs, 1 SB, 96 K, 101 BB, 387 AB
The roller coaster ride continues for Morgan Ensberg. He hit .291 with 25 homers in 2003 but then managed just 10 home runs the following year. In 2005, Ensberg broke out with a .283-36-101 season only to stumble again last year. So what can we expect from Ensberg in 2007? Who the hell knows? There’s obviously some pop in his bat, he takes a ton of walks and the Astros say he’s their third baseman, so the opportunity will be there. We wish we could tell you he was worth the risk, but your guess is as good as ours at this point.
Eric Chavez, A’s
.241, 22 HR, 72 RBI, 74 runs, 3 SB, 100 K, 84 BB, 485 AB
Chavez played in 137 games last year, but all sorts of back, hip, arm and leg troubles hampered him at the plate. There was a time that a future .300-40-120 season seemed like a forgone conclusion for Chavez, but now 29 and sporting a .262 average over the past three seasons, it’s safe to assume that the lefty will never be a superstar. If he’s relatively healthy, Chavez could hit .280-30-100, but at this point even that may be a stretch.
Hank Blalock, Rangers
.266, 16 HR, 89 RBI, 76 runs, 1 SB, 98 K, 51 BB, 591 AB
Talk about a sudden fall from grace. Blalock went .276-32-110-107 in 2004 and looked to be one of the best young sluggers in the game. A slightly disappointing .263-25-92 line came in ’05, and Blalock took another step backward last season. A shoulder injury partially contributed to his struggles, but he also can’t hit lefties (.216-3-23 in 2006). New manager Ron Washington says Blalock won’t be platooned, so he should have the chance to revive his career.
Mark Teahen, Royals
.290, 18 HR, 69 RBI, 70 runs, 10 SB, 85 K, 40 BB, 393 AB
It looks like Teahen will be moved to the outfield to make room for prized prospect Alex Gordon at the hot corner. As long as the Royals give the 25-year-old Teahen a chance to prove last year was no fluke, we’re happy. Teahen slugged 18 home runs in just 109 games, and if given a full season’s worth of work, we should be looking at 25-30 homers and a solid average. Of course, RBI may be tough to come by in Kansas City.
THE REST
Melvin Mora, Orioles
.274, 16 HR, 83 RBI, 96 runs, 11 SB, 99 K, 54 BB, 624 AB
Melvin Mora came out of nowhere a couple years ago to become one of fantasy’s most underrated commodities, and now it appears he’s on his way back to nowhere. He’s still a decent bat to stash on your bench but now 35 years old, it certainly would seem Mora’s .340-27-104-111-11 performance in 2004 was a one-time deal.
Wilson Betemit, Dodgers
.263, 18 HR, 53 RBI, 49 runs, 3 SB, 102 K, 36 BB, 373 AB
We can’t wait to see what Betemit can do with a full-time job. Granted, his struggles against LHP (.189-3-13) and his poor plate discipline likely mean he’ll be on a short leash, but the switch hitter was solid in limited action last season and could be a cheap power source in 2007.
Brandon Inge, Tigers
.253, 27 HR, 83 RBI, 83 runs, 7 SB, 128 K, 43 BB, 542 AB
Speaking of cheap power sources, that’s about the only thing Inge brings to the table, and even that’s debatable. Considering his previous career high was 16 homers and he’s a career .241 hitter, don’t look for a repeat.
Akinori Iwamura, Devil Rays
.311, 32 HR, 77 RBI, 84 runs, 8 SB, 128 K, 70 BB, 546 AB (Japan)
Iwamura, 28, was a career .300 in Japan and he hit 106 homers in his final three seasons with the Yakult Swallows, but his high strikeout rate likely won’t translate well in the bigs. He’ll be given every opportunity to lock up the third base job, but we wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him struggle in his first ML season.
THE FUTURE
Alex Gordon, Royals
.325, 29 HR, 101 RBI, 111 runs, 22 SB, 113 K, 72 BB, 486 AB (AA-Wichita)
Gordon absolutely tore up Double-A last season and, at 22, the Royals are ready to shift Mark Teahen to the outfield and hand the third-base job to Gordon, assuming he proves he’s ready during spring training. We think he’s here to stay, but until it’s official, it’s tough to use anything more than a late-round pick on him.
B.J. Upton, Devil Rays
.246, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 20 runs, 11 SB, 40 K, 13 BB, 175 AB
The Rays will give Upton regular at-bats this year, but they’ll give them to him in a super-utility role. The upside is, the 22-year-old Upton should have eligibility all over the diamond, but the downside is he may have a hard time adjusting to all the defensive uncertainty. That speed is tantalizing, so we’d recommend rolling the dice and seeing what happens.
Andy Marte, Indians
.226, 5 HR, 23 RBI, 20 runs, 0 SB, 38 K, 13 BB, 164 AB
Cleveland’s third base job is Andy Marte’s to lose. Times have been tough recently for the former Atlanta blue-chipper, having been traded twice in the past year and struggling in his first audition with the Indians. Don’t give up on the 23 year old, though, because if he settles in during his rookie campaign, big power could be on the way.