Fantasy Baseball Preview: Starting Pitchers
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How unreliable is starting pitching? Johan Santana will be a first-round pick in every league this season, and in some he'll go #1 overall. But once he's off the board, you may not see another starter go for the next three rounds. That's not to say there's no life after Johan, there just aren't many sure things after Johan.
Most of the seven starters we listed in the "Stars" tier will be drafted as fantasy aces this year. We'll stop short of calling Jake Peavy and Jeremy Bonderman surefire fantasy aces, but they could both perform as such in 2007. The "#2's" tier is littered with guys who provided (or could provide) ace numbers but will nonetheless be drafted by most owners to slot in behind a more reliable #1, "The Could-Be-Great's" all have a chance to exceed their draft prices, and "The #3's" are either veterans who provide excellent rotation depth or younger starters who should be solid values this year. Heck, a lot of the guys in the "Fallbacks" tier could deliver very good numbers for fantasy owners too.
And yet, with all that talent, nothing but bats fill the board in rounds two and three of most drafts. Some owners like to take advantage of this trend by snagging a couple of aces in the early rounds before anybody notices, but by the time they turn their attention back to the hitters, they're left picking through the scraps and often wind up trading an arm or two for more offense during the season. Either that, or one of those so-called aces wins 11 games with a 4.09 ERA (Jake Peavy) or makes 17 starts because of a shoulder problem (Ben Sheets). Meanwhile, guys like Aaron Harang, Brett Myers and Dan Haren are still sitting on the board in the eighth round.
Do yourself a favor: don't buck the trend. If you want to take Santana in the first, go for it, but make sure you get the bats while they're available and stock up on starters a bit later. As you can see, there are plenty to choose from.
*NOTE: All analysis based on standard 5x5 roto leagues
THE STUD
Johan Santana, Twins
19-6, 2.77 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 245 K, 47 BB, 34 GS, 233.2 IP
Santana’s three year average of 18 wins, 2.75 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 249 strikeouts in 231 innings is absolutely filthy. Since 2004, he’s allowed 522 hits in 693 innings while striking out 748 batters and walking just 146. Simply put, there’s nobody even remotely close to Santana on this list, and considering he’s just 28, he may be all alone atop this list for a long, long time. We always prefer offense in the early part of the first round but if you feel compelled to lock up baseball’s most dominant starting pitcher, we certainly wouldn’t fault you.
THE STARS
Roy Oswalt, Astros
15-8, 2.98 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 166 K, 38 BB, 32 GS, 220.2 IP
For the second-straight year, Oswalt’s ERA checked in under 3.00, but his strikeouts fell for the third consecutive season and he won fewer than 20 games for the first time since 2004. However, as most successful owners know, wins are the toughest category to project from one year to the next, so don’t hold Oswalt’s 15-8 record against him, especially since six other pitchers led the National League with just 16 wins. Oswalt has been one of baseball’s most durable and reliable pitchers for three years now, and while the tumbling K rate is a bit of a concern, there’s very little reason to worry about the Astros’ 29-year-old ace in 2007.
Chris Carpenter, Cardinals
15-8, 3.09 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 184 K, 43 BB, 32 GS, 221.2 IP
Carpenter failed to recapture the NL’s Cy Young award but another stellar season placed him third in the voting behind Brandon Webb and runner-up Trevor Hoffman. As good as Carpenter was in 2006, he fell short of the heights he enjoyed two years ago, winning six fewer games, striking out 29 fewer batters and registering a slightly higher ERA. He’s only 31, though, and he has a solid offense backing him up, so expect similar output from Carpenter this year with maybe a few more wins.
Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
16-7, 3.41 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 210 K, 115 BB, 33 GS, 214.0 IP
Zambrano keeps defying those predicting arm troubles for the 25-year-old right hander, registering 200 innings for the fourth-consecutive season while setting career-highs in strikeouts and wins (he also won 16 in 2004). Opposing batters hit just .208 off Zambrano last year, a mark that bettered even Johan Santana’s .216, but he also topped 100 walks for the first time in his career. He’s logged a ton of innings at a very young age so there are legitimate reasons to be concerned about Zambrano’s long-term health, but as long as he’s on the mound, he remains one of baseball’s finest starting pitchers and a true fantasy ace.
Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
16-8, 3.10 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 178 K, 50 BB, 33 GS, 235.0 IP
A case can certainly be made for Webb being higher on this list – he beat out the three guys directly above him for the NL Cy Young award – but whereas Oswalt, Carpenter and Zambrano all could strike out 200 batters this year, Webb’s settled in between 164 and 178 in each of his four ML seasons. Of course, 178 strikeouts is nothing to sneeze at, and at 27, it’s safe to assume that more excellence is on the way for the right hander. The D-Backs offense will likely limit his win potential, but that won’t stop Webb from again being one of baseball’s best in 2007.
Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
16-5, 3.19 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 132 K, 34 BB, 32 GS, 220.0 IP
Halladay is a prime example of a pitcher’s real-world worth not matching his fantasy value. The 6-6 right hander is without question one of the finest pitchers in all of baseball, and many AL hitters say he’s the toughest pitcher they face all year. But now that Halladay relies more on his sinker than his cut fastball, his ground-ball frequency has exploded while his strikeout rate has faded. Couple that with his checkered injury history – there were whispers that he was experiencing forearm soreness already this spring – and it’s clear that, while you’d love to have Halladay pitching for your hometown team, there are several more valuable pitchers to select on draft day.
Jake Peavy, Padres
11-14, 4.09 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 215 K, 62 BB, 32 GS, 202.1 IP
Coming off stellar seasons in 2004 (15-6, 2.27 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 173 K) and 2005 (13-7, 2.88 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 216 K), Peavy frustrated his fantasy owners to no end last year. A shoulder injury hampered him in his third full season and yet the 25 year old still managed to top 200 innings for the second-straight year. He says he had the shoulder thoroughly examined in the offseason and no structural damage was found, so there’s hope for a rebound in 2007. The Padres will have to score more runs if Peavy’s ever going to approach 18 wins, but as long as he’s healthy, he’ll be a major contributor in every other fantasy category.
Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers
14-8, 4.08 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 202 K, 64 BB, 34 GS, 214.0 IP
Another season, another step forward for the 24-year-old Bonderman. His ERA has dropped from 4.89 to 4.57 to 4.08 the last three years, but with a WHIP of 1.32 over that span, some may be surprised to know that Bonderman only yielded 64 free passes in 2006. The main culprit behind the right hander’s somewhat elevated WHIP is the fact that he gave up 214 hits in 214 innings, an unusually high hit rate for a kid who also struck out 202 batters. With slightly improved luck, expect the WHIP to drop and the ERA to keep improving. The sky’s the limit for Bonderman, and Detroit’s improved offense should push him over 15 wins. There’s also been talk that he’s working on a changeup this spring, and if that turns into a quality third pitch, this may be Bonderman’s best season yet.
THE #2's
Aaron Harang, Reds
16-11, 3.76 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 216 K, 56 BB, 35 GS, 234.1 IP
The 6-7 Harang has quietly developed into one of the NL’s steadiest starting pitchers, notching a sub-4.00 ERA for the second straight year and matching 2006’s 1.27 WHIP while tying for the league lead with 16 wins and leading the NL with 216 strikeouts. All of that, and he probably will still be drafted outside of the top-10 starting pitchers in most leagues. Harang is just 28 and, like Jeremy Bonderman, a high hit rate prevented him from being even better last season. Not surprisingly, Harang struggled at home (4.61 ERA) but he was consistently effective before and after the break, which suggests another solid season is on the way.
John Smoltz, Braves
16-9, 3.49 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 211 K, 55 BB, 35 GS, 232.0 IP
He’s 39, but you sure couldn’t tell last year. Since moving back into the rotation in 2005 after spending three years as Atlanta’s full-time closer, John Smoltz has won 30 games with a 3.27 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and 380 strikeouts in 431 innings of work. Last year marked the first time since 1997 that the 18-year veteran topped 200 K’s, and after going 10-4 with a 3.36 ERA in the second half, it looks like Smoltz is primed for another workhorse season in 2007. Expecting another 200-plus strikeouts may be a bit optimistic, but 15 wins, 185 K’s and solid ratios would be just fine.
John Lackey, Angels
13-11, 3.56 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 190 K, 72 BB, 33 GS, 217.2 IP
A rough second half (6-6, 4.41 ERA) prevented the 28-year-old Lackey from busting out in a big way last year. His numbers ended up being very similar to the line he produced in 2005, only with a slightly higher ERA (3.44 vs. 3.56) and an improvement on his WHIP (1.33 vs. 1.26). His 2.88 ERA and seven wins in the first half demonstrate the upside Lackey possesses and if he’s able to string together two good halves in 2007, we could be looking at one of the AL’s next great pitchers.
Brett Myers, Phillies
12-7, 3.91 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 189 K, 63 BB, 31 GS, 198.0 IP
After a promising 2005, Myers took a small step back last year, posting slightly higher ratios and giving up more hits in fewer innings. Off-field problems likely had something to do with it, and at the age of 26 this could be the year we’ve been waiting for from the 6-4 right hander. He struck out 208 batters in 215.1 innings two years ago, so if he can drive his ERA and WHIP back down, Myers has a chance to be an excellent #2 fantasy pitcher with the upside to be an ace.
Scott Kazmir, Devil Rays
10-8, 3.24 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 163 K, 52 BB, 24 GS, 144.2 IP
Woo boy. If this kid avoids injury, he’s got a chance to be something special. In the last two years, Kazmir’s tallied 337 strikeouts in 330.2 innings. Even better, after issuing 100 walks two years ago, the 23-year-old Kazmir nearly cut that number in half last season while striking out 10.2 batters per nine innings and notching a nifty 3.24 ERA. Considering he’s a slight 6-0 and 170 pounds, his shoulder problems are definitely cause for concern; in fact, there’s talk that the Rays may keep Kazmir on a pitch count to avoid further complications. But if you’re willing to assume that risk, there aren’t many pitchers out there who offer Kaz’s upside.
C.C. Sabathia, Indians
12-11, 3.22 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 172 K, 44 BB, 28 GS, 192.2 IP
Now 26, Sabathia dramatically improved his ERA and WHIP while also enjoying an uptick in strikeouts, but on an underachieving Indians team, the hefty lefty failed to match the 15 wins he registered in 2005. Still, after allowing a career-best 44 walks last year, there’s plenty of reason for optimism here. Sabathia should get more help from his offense in 2007 and if he’s able to ride the momentum he built while compiling a 2.97 ERA during the second half last year, he should exceed his draft position.
Dan Haren, A‘s
14-13, 4.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP 176 K, 45 BB, 34 GS, 223.0 IP
Haren didn’t quite have the kind of season we were hoping for last year. He matched his 2005 win total while striking out 13 more batters, but he gave up better than a hit per inning and his ERA jumped from 3.73 to 4.12. He also coughed up five more homers (31) and while his walks dropped from 53 to 45, he plunked 10 batters. But Haren is just 26 and is already a very good pitcher. He has his flaws, sure, but he also has the time and ability to improve, and we expect he will. Look for 16 wins, a 3.70 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 180 strikeouts.
Felix Hernandez, Mariners
12-14, 4.52 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 176 K, 60 BB, 31 GS, 191.0 IP
During his first full season, Hernandez served as yet another reminder of why it’s dangerous to expect big things from young pitchers. And when we say young, we mean it: Hernandez will turn 21 shortly after Opening Day. With that in mind, his 2006 season looks a whole lot better than the numbers would seem to indicate. His ERA stood at 4.95 at the All Star break but a 4-6/4.02 second half offered a glimpse of what could be in store this year. Obviously, the kid still has a lot to learn but, along with Jeremy Bonderman and Scott Kazmir, Hernandez is among the AL’s best young hurlers, and he could approach 200 strikeouts with an ERA right around 4.00 this year.
Jason Schmidt, Dodgers
11-9, 3.59 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 180 K, 80 BB, 32 GS, 213.1 IP
Schmidt could be a sneaky selection this season. His dominant days are likely over, but if he’d been able to win three or four more games last year, Schmidt probably would be a hotter draft commodity. Good for you, then, because with a price tag that’ll fall short of his production, the 34-year-old Schmidt will be an excellent value this year. His high walk totals will prevent Schmidt from posting a sparkling WHIP, but batters hit just .238 off him last season and he’s always been a great source of strikeouts. There are some injury concerns here, but Schmidt held up relatively well for the Giants last season and the move to Dodger Stadium should keep his numbers steady.
Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
17-5, 2.13 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 200 K, 34 BB, 25 GS, 186.1 IP (Jpn)
Where or where should Dice-K be drafted? Some eager owners have jumped on him as early as the fourth or fifth round, while other less optimistic leagues still have him on the board after 10 rounds. We think Matsuzaka will be very good in his first ML season as U.S. hitters try to figure him out. Rumor has it he throws at least six different pitches, all of them for strikes, and he’s always been a strikeout pitcher, fanning 1,355 batters in 1,402.2 career innings in Japan. The heavy workload and slight build (6-0, 187 pounds) are cause for concern, but he’s only 27, his stuff is electric and he has pinpoint control. Expect Matsuzaka to be strong out of the gate before hitting an adjustment period and finishing with 15 wins, 185 strikeouts and solid ratios.
Curt Shilling, Red Sox
15-7, 3.97 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 183 K, 28 BB, 31 GS, 204.0 IP
Schilling enjoyed a fine bounceback season after being limited to 93.1 innings in 2005. Now 40 years old and entering his 19th season, Schilling’s talking about pitching beyond this year. While he may not have the stuff to match the obscene numbers he posted during his heyday, it’s clear the 6-5 right hander has enough left to be a very good #2 or #3 fantasy starter. We don’t expect much deviation from his 2006 line, though we wouldn’t be surprised if the strikeouts fall a bit as Schilling relies more on his smarts to get hitters out.
THE COULD-BE-GREAT's
Ben Sheets, Brewers
6-7, 3.82 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 116 K, 11 BB, 17 GS, 106.0 IP
Ben Sheets was a beast in 2004, striking out 264 batters in 237 innings with a 2.70 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Since then, injuries have limited Milwaukee’s 28-year-old ace to just 39 starts, but the strikeouts have still been there (257 in 262.2 IP) and his control (36 walks) has never wavered. Sheets made 13 of his 17 starts after the break last year, and he proved that he can still dominate when healthy, winning five games with a 3.15 ERA. Sheets epitomizes high-risk/high-reward pitchers, but while that reward may tempt you into building your staff around him, understand that the risk makes that a very dangerous plan.
Dontrelle Willis, Marlins
12-12, 3.87 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 160 K, 83 BB, 34 GS, 223.1 IP
After winning 22 games with a 2.63 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 2005, Willis was plagued by wildness last season, walking a career-high 83 batters after averaging 58 free passes the previous three years. The 25-year-old lefty may have been worn out after pitching in the WBC prior to the season, or he simply may have had an off year. Regardless, this is a good time to buy Willis, especially in keeper leagues. He won’t win 22 games again, but with Florida’s young lineup backing him, expect much better than 12-12 with a 1.42 WHIP.
Matt Cain, Giants
13-12, 4.15 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 179 K, 87 BB, 32 GS, 190.2 IP
The 22-year-old Cain recently signed an extension through 2010, a move that will surely pay off for the Giants. After winning 13 games with solid ratios and plenty of strikeouts, Cain’s star is on the rise. Don’t be surprised to see the youngster struggle somewhat in his sophomore year as opposing batters study up on him, but he shouldn’t have too much trouble replicating last year’s success with his big breakthrough perhaps coming in 2008.
Cole Hamels, Phillies
9-8, 4.09 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 145 K, 48 BB, 23 GS, 132.1 IP
Things didn’t start out so well for the highly touted Hamels last season, posting a 5.44 ERA in 44.2 innings before the break. Fortunately, something clicked in the second half as the young lefty went 7-4 with a 3.39 ERA and 101 strikeouts in 87.2 innings of work. Hamels has a history of arm troubles so there is reason for some caution, but if he can stay healthy and hone his control a bit, expect the 23 year old to put up some great numbers in his second season.
Erik Bedard, Orioles
15-11, 3.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 171 K, 69 BB, 33 GS, 196.1 IP
It took some time, but Bedard finally blossomed under pitching coach Leo Mazzone last year. The 28-year-old lefty went 1-3 with a 7.85 ERA in May before rattling off 19 quality starts in his next 22 outings. Credit Bedard’s improved control for his breakthrough season, and if he can keep locating his pitches he should top 200 innings of work and win another 15-plus games with plenty of strikeouts.
Rich Harden, A’s
4-0, 3.07 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 49 K, 26 BB, 9 GS, 46.2 IP
In terms of pure talent, Rich Harden ranks near the very top of this list. But along with Ben Sheets and Mark Prior, Harden is one of the most tantalizingly dangerous pitchers available on draft day. If – if – he could just stay healthy enough to pitch 200 innings, Harden, like Sheets and Prior, would have sensational numbers across the board. But since throwing 189.2 innings three years ago, Harden’s been limited to 128 innings in ’05 and just 46.2 in ‘06. An elbow injury was the malady last year, which is anything but encouraging. Because of his upside, Harden is still a very popular commodity, so it may be best to let someone else overpay for potential.
Chris Young, Padres
11-5, 3.46 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 164 K, 69 BB, 31 GS, 179.1 IP
In his first season with the Padres, the 6-10 Chris Young was a nice surprise. Of course, calling him a surprise isn’t entirely accurate since many people had Young tabbed as a sleeper last year after going 12-7 with a 4.26 ERA for the Rangers in 2005. Young’s success with the Padres can be partially credited to his home park – he went 6-0 with a 2.41 ERA at Petco Park – but don’t sell him short. He’s only 27 and if he can figure out a way to pitch later into games (he’s averaged 172 innings the last two years), Young could be a very nice value pick.
Josh Beckett, Red Sox
16-11, 5.01 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 158 K, 74 BB, 33 GS, 204.2 IP
There’s only one number in the line above that stands out: 5.01. The other number that stands out from Beckett’s first year in Boston is 36 home runs. The 26-year-old right hander surrendered just 14 homers with the Marlins in 2005 (albeit in almost 30 fewer innings), and the 16 wins, 1.29 WHIP and 158 strikeouts indicate Beckett was better than that 5.01 ERA. If he keeps it in the yard more often and puts in another 200 innings (a career high), the 26-year-old Beckett could easily duplicate his numbers from last year, only with an ERA under 3.50.
THE #3's
Barry Zito, Giants
16-10, 3.83 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 151 K, 99 BB, 34 GS, 221.0 IP
Zito’s long been a tad overrated in the fantasy world. Like Roy Halladay, San Fran’s new lefty is more valuable to his teammates than he is to his fantasy owners. He’s always given up a lot of walks – an average of 90 over the last three years – but along with a shaky WHIP come consistent wins and a fair amount of strikeouts. In a new league, we’re betting the 28-year-old Zito starts strong before struggling a bit more in the second half, but he should be better in 2007 than he was in his last few years with the A’s.
Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
17-11, 5.00 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 172 K, 60 BB, 33 GS, 205.0 IP
Talk about a wild card. Will his back hold up? Will the league change help his numbers? Will he grow his hair long again? Randy Johnson could be the best third or even fourth starter in all of fantasy this season, but there are so many questions surrounding him this year that it’s impossible to accurately gauge his value. Looking at his solid strikeout rate and 1.24 WHIP, we’ve got a hunch that all of his numbers will remain relatively steady except for the ERA, which could hover around 4.00. Johnson’s going back to where he’s comfortable, back to a league that he thoroughly dominated three years ago. If his back holds up, he could be very good.
Mike Mussina, Yankees
15-7, 3.51 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 172 K, 35 BB, 32 GS, 197.1 IP
Well, that was unexpected. Mussina won 15 games for the first time since 2003, which was also the last time he struck out more than 145 batters and recorded an ERA under 4.00. The 38-year-old right hander threw just 344.1 innings in 2004 and 2005, so there’s a chance Mussina’s rebound was a result of being relatively healthy for the first time in three years. Then again, it was also a contract year – the Yankees gave him two years and $23 million – so maybe he was just a little more…um, motivated. To be safe, take the midpoint between 2005 and 2006, which would be something like 14 wins, 4.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 150 K.
Ervin Santana, Angels
16-8, 4.28 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 141 K, 70 BB, 33 GS, 204.0 IP
At just 24, there’s more to Santana than we’ve seen yet. Of course, he’s already coming off a solid year, topping 200 innings and winning 16 games in just his second season. He went 10-3 with a 3.96 ERA in the first half, but a 4.68 ERA after the break tainted an otherwise fine season. The strikeouts were a bit low, and he needs to improve his control, but Santana’s career is starting to take off.
Chris Capuano, Brewers
11-12, 4.03 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 174 K, 47 BB, 34 GS, 221.1 IP
The fact that Capuano still gets very little respect can be attributed to two things: he plays for the Brewers and he only won 11 games last year. Even worse, he lost more games than he won. But every other number in his line looks great, right down to the tidy K/BB ratio. The strikeouts aren’t a surprise – Capuano totaled 176 in 219 innings two years ago – but the improved control (91 walks in 2005) is very encouraging. Last year’s second-half fade (1-8, 5.17 ERA) tempers our expectations a bit, but Capuano is someone to watch.
Bronson Arroyo, Reds
14-11, 3.29 ERA, 1.19 WHIP 184 K, 64 BB, 35 GS, 240.2 IP
Funny what switching leagues can do for some guys. Arroyo matched his 14 wins from 2005 while tacking on 84 more strikeouts, but he also did that in 35 more innings of work. On the plus side, he displayed improved control and followed his 3.12 first-half ERA with a 3.50 mark after the break. Still, after striking out just 100 batters in 205.1 innings two years ago, we have our doubts that Arroyo’s legit. He’ll likely be a good pitcher for the Reds, but we’d be surprised if the 30 year old put up similar numbers in 2007.
Dave Bush, Brewers
12-11, 4.41 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 166 K, 38 BB, 32 GS, 210 IP
That 1.14 WHIP could be a sign of good things to come. Bush isn’t a power pitcher but his excellent command led to a nice strikeout rate. As is the case with any Milwaukee pitcher, Bush’s value is deflated a bit by his shaky win potential. If he continues to improve, though, the wins will come naturally.
Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
4-2, 35 saves, 0.92 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 75 K, 13 BB, 0 GS, 68.1 IP
Toss the above numbers out the window. The starter-turned-closer-turned-starter has a big adjustment ahead of him, and there’s no way he’ll be as dominant in the rotation as he was out of the bullpen. Papelbon has plenty of potential as a starter, but be careful where you select him because his name alone will likely bump up his price tag.
Jered Weaver, Angels
11-2, 2.56 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 105 K, 33 BB, 19 GS, 123.0 IP
DANGER! DANGER!! When the words “shoulder and biceps soreness” are paired with “MRI”, it’s usually bad news. If you’re talking about a 24-year-old rookie coming off a 200-inning season, it may in fact be horribly rotten news. Weaver was diagnosed with tendonitis in January and while there’s been a lot of talk about him missing Opening Day, there’s still a chance he’ll be ready to go. Either way, understand you’re taking on significant risk if you select Weaver. He’s got loads of potential but he’s also a near lock to be overrated after such a magnificent rookie season.
Rich Hill, Cubs
6-7, 4.17 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 90 K, 39 BB, 16 GS, 99.1 IP
Instead of reaching for Jered Weaver this year, we’d much rather wait an hour and take Rich Hill. Yes, we understand we’ve ranked Weaver ahead of Hill, the reason being Weaver’s already proven he can dominate at the ML level whereas Hill had a wildly uneven rookie season. The 27-year-old lefty was awful in five May starts, going 0-4 with a 9.42 ERA, but impressed after a July recall by going 6-3 with a 2.58 ERA and 78 strikeouts in 76.2 innings. Hill will either be the Cubs’ third or fourth starter, and if his command is there, he’s got 200 K potential.
THE FALLBACKS
Javier Vazquez, White Sox
11-12, 4.84 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 184 K, 56 BB, 32 GS, 202.2 IP
Vazquez once had a very promising career ahead of him. That’s not to say the 30-year-old right hander has been bad, but he certainly hasn’t been as good as he looked in 2003, going 13-12 with a 3.24 ERA and 241 strikeouts in 230 innings. Vazquez logged a lot of innings at a young age, which could explain the dip in production, but he’s still a good source of strikeouts who’s capable of winning 15 games with decent ratios.
Freddy Garcia, Phillies
17-9, 4.53 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 135 K, 48 BB, 33 GS, 216.1 IP
The 6-4 Garcia saw his ERA rise to a career high and his strikeouts fall to a career low last year. A change to the National League, where the 30-year-old right hander has enjoyed success during interleague play, could goose his numbers a bit, but don’t get him hoping for a big bounceback.
Andy Pettitte, Yankees
14-13, 4.20 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 178 K, 70 BB, 35 GS, 214.1 IP
Pettitte was fantastic for the Astros in 2005, winning 17 games with a 2.39 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, but he regressed across the board last year. The fact that the 34-year-old left hander walked 29 more batters in eight fewer innings certainly had something to do with that, so if he has better command in his return to the Bronx, Pettitte could realistically win 18 games with 180 strikeouts. That’s the high end, obviously, with a more realistic expectation being 16 wins, a 4.00 ERA and 165 strikeouts.
Kelvim Escobar, Angels
11-14, 3.61 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 147 K, 50 BB, 30 GS, 189.1 IP
It was another injury plagued year for the 30-year-old Escobar. Since striking out 191 batters in 208.1 innings three years ago, Escobar hasn’t been able to stay healthy, logging just 59.2 innings two years ago. He made 30 starts, but elbow and knee soreness cut several outings short and held him out of a couple more. The talent is there, and as long as you’ve got the rotation depth to back him, Escobar is a solid late-round addition.
Scott Olsen, Marlins
13-11, 4.04 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 166 K, 75 BB, 31 GS, 180.2 IP
At this point, Olsen looks like the safest bet of all the Florida starters. With fellow 23-year-old teammates Anibal Sanchez and Josh Johnson experiencing arm problems this spring, the talented Olsen should be the first of the trio selected on draft day. A 6-6 record in the second half with a 3.83 ERA suggests he could be on the verge of significant improvement in 2007, but he’ll need to limit the free passes to be a major contributor.
Kevin Millwood, Rangers
16-12, 4.52 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 157 K, 53 BB, 34 GS, 215.0 IP
Many people thought Millwood was in for a down year after signing with the Rangers, but while he tacked almost a full two runs onto his ERA and gave up more than a hit per inning, he also won 16 games and topped 150 strikeouts for the first time since 2003. At 32, we’re not going to see any major turnaround from Millwood, but he should again be a useful starter to plug in at the back end of your rotation.
A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
10-8, 3.98 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 118 K, 39 BB, 21 GS, 135.2 IP
More elbow woes limited Burnett to six first-half starts and 135.2 innings on the year. He rebounded in time to go 9-5 with a 3.86 ERA after the break and finish with solid numbers, but it was another case of “what could have been” for the 30-year-old right hander. You’ll always get good strikeout totals from Burnett, but you’ll also be lucky to get 25 starts.
Roger Clemens, Astros
7-6, 2.30 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 102 K, 29 BB, 19 GS, 113.1 IP
Feeling lucky? One minute everyone in Medialand thinks it’s a given that the 44-year-old Clemens is coming back for his 400th season, and the next it sounds like the Rocket is ready to hang ‘em up. Play it safe and only roll the dice on Clemens if you have a deep bench and you can safely stash him for a couple months without hurting your team.
Derek Lowe, Dodgers
16-8, 3.63 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 123 K, 55 BB, 34 GS, 218.0 IP
Lowe has been very effective for the Dodgers since signing a free-agent deal in 2005, but while his numbers may have been slightly better two years ago, Lowe won four more games last season in four fewer innings. You’ll never get a lot of strikeouts from the 33-year-old right hander, but assuming his run with the Dodgers continues, Lowe will be a good guy to round out your rotation.
Justin Verlander, Tigers
17-9, 3.63 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 124 K, 60 BB, 30 GS, 186.0 IP
You thought we forgot to list him, didn’t you? We try not to buy into propaganda about this player or that player, but we think all the people worrying about Verlander’s workload have a very valid point. He was sensational in the first half, going 10-4 with a 3.01 ERA, but he had a 4.54 ERA after the break and, even more noteworthy, the Tigers skipped several of his late-season starts because of arm fatigue. Oh, then he went on to toss another 21.2 innings in the postseason. That’s 207.2 total innings for a 24-year-old kid whose previous career high of 118.2 innings came at Double-A a year earlier. With his expected price tag, Verlander is someone we’re avoiding.
Mark Prior, Cubs
1-6, 7.21 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 38 K, 28 BB, 9 GS, 43.2 IP
Maybe one of these years, the much maligned Prior will string together 30 starts and remind everyone why we were so excited about him a few years ago. Thinking about his 2003 line (18-6, 2.43 ERA, 245 strikeouts) is so tempting, but it’s also futile. Now 29 (really?), Prior is running out of time and fantasy owners are running out of patience. Take a shot in the later rounds if you think this is THE year, but don’t be surprised if it’s not.
Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees
19-6, 3.63 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 76 K, 52 BB, 33 GS, 218.0 IP
How does the AL co-leader in wins wind up all the way down here? Well, he strikes out 3.14 batters per nine innings and allows 15 more hits than innings pitched. Wang’s 1.31 WHIP tells us that his record could’ve easily been 13-12 with a little less run support, and since wins are the toughest stat to project for a starter, Wang just doesn’t inspire much confidence in us this year.
Tom Glavine, Mets
15-7, 3.82 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 131 K, 62 BB, 32 GS, 198.0 IP
Now just 10 wins shy of 300, this may very well be Glavine’s final season. Then again, if he pitches like he did last season, maybe the 41-year-old lefty will stick around a while longer. You know you’re not getting many strikeouts when you select Glavine, but his ERA has been under 4.00 in each of the last three years and he’s still winning games, so there’s definitely some value to be found here.
Jason Jennings, Astros
9-13, 3.78 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 142 K, 85 BB, 32 GS, 212.0 IP
Some are calling Jennings a big sleeper, but be careful here. Sure, the 28-year-old right hander is out of Colorado, but he moved on to Houston, which means his new home park isn’t all that much friendlier to pitchers than his old home park was. Plus, before posting a 3.78 ERA last year, Jennings checked in at 5.51 in 2004 and 5.02 in 2005. He may be a little more reliable on his new team, but unless he cuts way down on his walks, Jennings won’t be more than a decent end-game starter.
Anthony Reyes, Reds
5-8, 5.06 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 72 K, 34 BB, 17 GS, 85.1 IP
The highly touted Reyes was hot and cold during his rookie season but he showed good strikeout potential and, at 25, his career is only beginning. He’ll need to be much more consistent in his second season, but Reyes showed that he knew how to pitch during his start in Game 1 of the World Series. Plus, he's got some cool socks. Take a flier on him, especially in a keeper league.
Brad Penny, Dodgers
16-9, 4.33 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 148 K, 54 BB, 33 GS, 189.0 IP
Penny is another former Marlin hurler who’s enduring arm troubles throughout much of his career. Even during a relatively healthy year, the 28-year-old right hander logged just 189 innings, and while he won 16 games, he allowed better than a hit per inning and saw his ERA and WHIP rise for the second-consecutive season. Penny’s days as a strikeout threat are apparently over, and there’s no guarantee he’ll be any better this year than he was last. We would like to know how the hell he got the smoking hot Eliza Dushku, though. She must not care to much about his deteriorating ratios and low K's.
Cliff Lee, Indians
14-11, 4.40 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 129 K, 58 BB, 33 GS, 200 IP
For the second-straight season, Lee topped 200 innings of work, and while the results weren’t as encouraging as 2005’s 18 wins, 3.79 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, the 28-year-old lefty was still a useful fantasy starter. Lee has run hot and cold in his brief career, and if he continues to follow that pattern, 2007 should be a hot year. Anything better than a 4.40 ERA and 1.41 WHIP would be useful.