Fantasy Baseball Preview: Shortstops
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We debated for quite some time about whether or not the Mets' Jose Reyes deserved his own tier. As good as the kid is at such a young age, the guys listed below him aren't exactly slouches.
Cross-town shortstop Derek Jeter had a sensational season for the Yankees, and while you can't necessarily count on him repeating that .343 average, he's always been a consistent (and often prolific) contributor across the board. Jimmy Rollins mixed in some power to go with all that speed and it's true that Miguel Tejada isn't the slugger he was a few years ago, but we're sure his owners will take the .300 average with 25 homers and 100 RBI/runs. Rounding out the second tier are Michael Young and Rafael Furcal, two guys who have become very reliable early round selections on draft day.
Then there's reigning NL Rookie of the Year Hanley Ramirez. What kind of year did he have? How good would 17 homers, 119 runs and 51 steals look on your team? Compare those numbers to what Reyes put up last season, then consider that Reyes and Ramirez are both just 23. In the end, we felt Reyes earned his own tier, but next year he may have company at the top.
Scroll a little farther down the list and you'll see some interesting names. Bill Hall led all shortstops with 35 homers, Felipe Lopez stole 44 bases and Carlos Guillen nearly went 20-20. You want upside? Try Stephen Drew or the Rockies' Troy Tulowitzki. Edgar Renteria, meanwhile, is one of the most underrated five-category players in the game. Shortstop is a position loaded with speed, but more than that, it's a position loaded with talent. And it all starts at the top.
*NOTE: All analysis based on standard 5x5 roto leagues
THE STUD
Jose Reyes, Mets
.300, 19 HR, 81 RBI, 122 runs, 64 SB, 81 K, 53 BB, 647 AB
What if he gets better? Imagine that. What if Jose Reyes hits 25 homers and steals 70 bases this year? What if he hits .315 and scores 140 runs? Admittedly, those are all optimistic numbers, and we’re not suggesting Reyes will do all of those things this year. But what if he does one? Or what if he dips down to .290 and only steals 55 bases, but he hits 25 homers? The fact is, at just 23, Reyes has the potential to improve across the board, but even a slight regression in 2007 means he’s still one of the most dynamic players in baseball. He’ll be a top-five pick in most leagues, but we say he’s top-three.
THE STARS
Derek Jeter, Yankees
.343, 14 HR, 97 RBI, 118 runs, 34 SB, 102 K, 69 BB, 623 AB
If you miss out on Reyes, you may have to settle for Jeter. Bummer, huh? The Yankee captain’s home run totals have dropped from 23 to 14 the last two years but the average is up and last year’s 34 steals marked a career high. Expect Jeter to settle a little closer to the mean this year, something along the lines of .320-16-80-28.
Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
.277, 25 HR, 83 RBI, 127 runs, 36 SB, 80 K, 57 BB, 689 AB
He’s got to do it again to prove it was legit, but it certainly looks like Jimmy Rollins is developing into one of baseball’s most exciting players, and at age 28, he’s just now entering his prime. Rollins would be more valuable to the Phillies and his fantasy owners if he bumped the average up to .290 and settled into the 18-20 home run range. Either way, it seems the days of Jimmy Rollins being an overrated fantasy commodity are long gone.
Miguel Tejada, Orioles
.330, 24 HR, 100 RBI, 99 runs, 6 SB, 79 K, 46 BB, 648 AB
Tejada may not be the 35-homer threat he once was, but he is one of fantasy’s most reliable big bats. If the power dip has you questioning Tejada’s value, keep in mind his average season the last three years is .315-28-116-98. That kind of stable production from your shortstop is fantasy gold.
Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
.292, 17 HR, 59 RBI, 119 runs, 51 SB, 128 K, 56 BB, 633 AB
So is Hanley Ramirez another Jose Reyes? Those sparkling rookie numbers certainly say he is, but will that success carry over into Ramirez’s sophomore season? The 6-3 Ramirez is one of the toughest players to get a read on. After putting up a line like that as a 22-year-old rookie, you’ll have to pounce early to get him on draft day. If he can’t deliver an encore performance, you likely paid too much to get him. Then again, if he repeats or even improves, Ramirez could be a top-five pick next year.
Michael Young, Rangers
.314, 14 HR, 103 RBI, 93 runs, 7 SB, 96 K, 48 BB, 691 AB
Something must’ve been in the water in Arlington last year. After clubbing 81 homers in 2004 and 2005, Mark Teixeira managed just nine home runs before the break and finished with 33, and fellow All Star Michael Young fell to 14 homers on the year after hitting 46 the previous two seasons. Young did, however, set a career mark with 103 RBI, and if Teixeira parlays a strong second half into a big 2007 season, Young should ratchet the power up a bit in turn.
Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
.300, 15 HR, 63 RBI, 113 runs, 37 SB, 98 K, 73 BB, 654 AB
All signs are pointing to Rafael Furcal hitting leadoff ahead of newcomer Juan Pierre in the Dodgers’ lineup. Of course, with two proven leadoff options to choose from, manager Grady Little could always flip the two; some rumors even have the Dodgers considering batting Furcal third. While that seems unlikely, such a move probably would result in better run production but fewer steals. Regardless of where he hits, the 29-year-old shortstop will again be an excellent fantasy option who can give you a bit of everything.
THE DEPENDABLES
Bill Hall, Brewers
.270, 35 HR, 85 RBI, 101 runs, 8 SB, 162 K, 63 BB, 537 AB
Hall’s only 27, and while he topped his previous career high by 18 home runs, his power production increased the previous two seasons too. Hall hit .291 two years ago, and he may continue to sacrifice some points off his average for a few extra homers. The Brewers are saying Hall will be their center fielder this year, but he’ll also qualify at short and, in some leagues, third base.
Felipe Lopez, Nationals
.274, 11 HR, 52 RBI, 98 runs, 44 SB, 126 K, 81 BB, 617 AB
Lopez couldn’t duplicate the 23 homers he hit in 2005, but while splitting time between the Reds and Nationals, the 26 year old jumped from 15 to 44 steals. Playing in Washington should keep Lopez’s home run totals in check but he’ll be counted on to be the team’s catalyst from the leadoff spot, which means he should run just as much in 2007.
Carlos Guillen, Tigers
.320, 19 HR, 85 RBI, 100 runs, 20 SB, 87 K, 71 BB, 543 AB
This is probably a year you’ll want to avoid Guillen. We’re not saying the guy’s not good – his career stats would say otherwise – but Guillen is coming off a career year at the age of 31. In all fairness, we should note that he went .318-20-97-97-12 in 2004, so it’s not like he’s never done this before. But if you take out the 2004 and 2007 seasons, his best line probably came in 2003: .276-7-52-52-4. It’s all or nothing with Guillen, and coming off an “all” season, we may be in store for a “nothing” one.
Orlando Cabrera, Angels
.282, 9 HR, 72 RBI, 95 runs, 27 SB, 58 K, 51 BB, 607 AB
Orlando Cabrera settled in to become a fine #2 hitter for the Angels last year, upping his average 25 points, drawing 13 more walks and driving the ball more consistently (45 doubles). With youngster Howie Kendrick also projecting as a promising #2 hitter, Cabrera could be dropped in the order if he regresses back to his 2005 levels. He’s 32 now, so don’t expect any significant improvement.
Edgar Renteria, Braves
.293, 14 HR, 70 RBI, 100 runs, 17 SB, 89 K, 62 BB, 598 AB
Renteria enjoyed life back in the National League, and while his numbers don’t jump out at you, he should again provide very tangible production in every fantasy category. If he can keep the average and power steady while topping 20 steals for the first time since 2003, Renteria will likely be undervalued.
THE FALLBACKS
Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
.316, 5 HR, 23 RBI, 27 runs, 2 SB, 50 K, 14 BB, 209 AB
J.D.’s kid brother is brimming with upside, and at 24 the Diamondbacks are ready to hand the keys to Drew and see what he can do. Word is he’ll start the year in the bottom half of the lineup but if he gets off to a good start, don’t be surprised if he’s bumped up a few spots. There will be some growing pains in his first full season, but Drew should manage a .285-13-70 line.
Omar Vizquel, Giants
.295, 4 HR, 58 RBI, 88 runs, 24 SB, 51 K, 56 BB, 579 AB
How does Omar keep doing it? Sure, there’s no power to speak of but at 39, Vizquel’s contributions in steals, average and runs are quite impressive. Consider that he’s stolen 24 bases in each of his two seasons with the Giants after last swiping more than 22 bases in 1999. Expect more of the same from the steady shortstop.
Jason Bartlett, Twins
.309, 2 HR, 32 RBI, 44 runs, 10 SB, 46 K, 22 BB, 333 AB
The only thing separating Omar Vizquel and Jason Bartlett is age: Omar’s 39, Barlett’s 27. (Well, and Vizquel’s won 11 Gold Gloves, but we’re talkin’ fantasy here, people.) Bartlett’s plate discipline and excellent speed likely will help him win the starting job this spring. Assuming that happens, there’s no reason he can’t at least replicate Vizquel’s 2006 line.
Jhonny Peralta, Indians
.257, 13 HR, 68 RBI, 84 runs, 0 SB, 152 K, 56 BB, 569 AB
Another case of a breakout season not carrying over into the following year. Peralta smacked 24 homers in 2005 while hitting .292 and driving in 78 runs, but his numbers dropped across the board in his second full ML season. Still just 24, Peralta has time to regain his status as one of baseball’s best young shortstops. The Indians will keep him in the bottom half of the lineup this year but they’ll also continue to be patient with Peralta in hopes that what they saw two years ago wasn’t a mirage.
Khalil Greene, Padres
.245, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 56 runs, 5 SB, 87 K, 39 BB, 412, AB
The ROY runner up to Jason Bay three years ago, Khalil Greene has been banged up since, playing in just 121 games each of the last two seasons. The power has remained steady but Greene’s average has dropped from .273 to .245. There’s definitely some potential here, but Greene needs to stay healthy if he’s ever going to deliver on it.
THE REST
Bobby Crosby, A’s
.299, 9 HR, 40 RBI, 42 runs, 8 SB, 76 K, 36 BB, 358 AB
Crosby’s another guy whose seemingly limitless potential has been offset by a rash of injuries and an inability to stay on the field. Some analysts were hyping Crosby as an MVP candidate last spring; you can see how that turned out. He’s certainly talented, but after playing in a combined 180 games the last two years, it’s starting to look like that talent may never translate into big numbers.
Juan Uribe, White Sox
.235, 21 HR, 71 RBI, 53 runs, 1 SB, 82 K, 13 BB, 463 AB
Uribe was cleared of all charges in a shooting case in the Dominican Republic and reported to camp February 23. Unfortunately, his average has dropped nearly 50 points since 2004 and while the power is nice, it’s not worth the potential hit in average.
Aaron Hill, Blue Jays
.291, 6 HR, 50 RBI, 70 runs, 5 SB, 66 K, 42 BB, 546 AB
Reports say Hill will lead off for Toronto after delivering a solid season as a second-year player. It’s good news for Hill’s fantasy value, but he looks to be one of those guys who’s more valuable on the field than he is on your roster.
Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
.240, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 15 runs, 3 SB, 25 K, 10 BB, 96 AB
Tulowitzki probably isn’t worth drafting in mixed leagues, but keeper leaguers and those in NL-only leagues should consider the 22-year-old rookie. He has good on-base skills and a bit of pop, so if he beats out Clint Barmes for the starting job at second, he’s worth tracking.