Fantasy Baseball Preview: Second Basemen
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There's a common misconception that second base is a weak position this year. While it's true that Chase Utley stands as far and away the best option on draft day (and hence sits alone in the "Stud" tier), what the position lacks in top-end talent it makes up for with some nice depth.
First of all, if you want Utley, you're going to have to pay out the nose for him -- likely a mid- to late-first round pick. Is he worth it? With very tangible production across the board, we say yes. But after Utley, there's a huge gap before the next tier of players, led by Baltimore's Brian Roberts and the Yankees' Robinson Cano. While neither player is a superstar, they're both very good at what they do: Roberts scores runs and steals bases, Cano hits for a high average with good pop. Even after those two guys (and Utley), there are still, by our count, nine more starter-quality second basemen, led by veterans like Tadahito Iguchi and Jeff Kent, and youngsters like Howie Kendrick and Ian Kinsler. Granted, handing a starting job to somewhat unproven commodities like Kendrick and even Florida's Dan Uggla can be a bit of a gamble, but the players featured in "The Future" tier have all shown enough to merit your attention on draft day.
What about the rest of the list? Guys like Marcus Giles and Orlando Hudson make for solid middle infield types while Jose Lopez and Chris Burke could enjoy breakout seasons. National League batting champ Freddy Sanchez is down there too, and while he doesn't offer a whole lot of power, he should qualify at several different infield positions and hit well over .300. So don't believe what you hear: you may not have a superstar manning second base for you, but as long as you pay attention, you shouldn't have any problem getting reliable production from the position.
*NOTE: All analysis based on standard 5x5 roto leagues
THE STUD
Chase Utley, Phillies
.309, 32 HR, 102 RBI, 131 runs, 15 SB, 132 K, 63 BB, 658 AB
If you pay the premium to get Utley, you know you’re getting the unquestioned best second baseman in the game. In fact, there may not be a bigger discrepancy at any position between the first-ranked player and the second. Utley followed up a big 2005 with an even bigger 2006, topping 200 hits for the first time and scoring nearly 40 more runs. At only 28 and cemented in the three-hole ahead of MVP Ryan Howard, Utley will be great for years to come.
THE STARS
Brian Roberts, Orioles
.286, 10 HR, 55 RBI, 85 runs, 36 SB, 66 K, 55 BB, 563 AB
Once Utley’s off the board, there’s no real consensus on who the next-best second baseman is, but Baltimore’s Brian Roberts is certainly in the discussion. In his first season under manager Sam Perlozzo, Roberts’ stolen base total inched up to 36, good for fifth in the AL and first among full-time second basemen. The homers dropped from 18 to 10 and he seems to always be banged up, but at 29 an even better season could be on the way from Roberts.
Robinson Cano, Yankees
.342, 15 HR, 78 RBI, 62 runs, 5 SB, 54 K, 18 BB, 482 AB
With only 18 walks in 482 AB’s, it’s safe to say another .342 average from the young Yankee second baseman is a bit of a long shot. That’s not to say the 24-year-old Cano will be a bust in his third season, but considering his low stolen base totals and his merely decent pop, a lower average would likely make Cano one of the more overvalued players on draft day. Then again, he could improve his power stroke as he gets older, and 20-plus homers would help offset the expected drop in average.
Julio Lugo, Red Sox
.278, 12 HR, 37 RBI, 69 runs, 24 SB, 76 K, 39 BB, 435 AB
Batting leadoff for the Sox should result in plenty of runs scored for Lugo. He probably won’t run as much in Boston but the average should be closer to .290. Lugo’s not going to wow anybody with his stats but with solid production across the board and dual eligibility at second and short, he should provide nice value.
Tadahito Iguchi, White Sox
.281, 18 HR, 67 RBI, 97 runs, 11 SB, 110 K, 59 BB, 555 AB
Word is Ozzie Guillen is set on hitting Darin Erstad second and dropping his consistent second baseman to sixth or seventh in the lineup. We don’t get it. Iguchi has averaged 17 homers, 69 RBI and 13 steals in two seasons with the Pale Hose while hitting .280, and Ozzie wants to drop him in the lineup? Then again, considering how consistent Iguchi’s been, we don’t see the potential move affecting his numbers much, and since this all hinges on Darin Erstad being healthy, we’ll probably see Iguchi hitting second more often than not anyway.
Jeff Kent, Dodgers
.292, 14 HR, 68 RBI, 61 runs, 1 SB, 69 K, 55 BB, 407 AB
Kent probably won’t give you 30 homers and 110 RBI anymore, but assuming he’s healthy – and excluding last season’s oblique injury, Kent’s been good for 140 games a year since 1997 – Kent should be one of the position’s better power options. Now 39, the chance of a breakdown is certainly there, but last year’s .292 average and .385 OBP suggest there’s more than enough left in Kent’s tank to help fantasy owners.
THE FUTURE
Rickie Weeks, Brewers
.279, 8 HR, 34 RBI, 73 runs, 19 SB, 92 K, 30 BB, 359 AB
We admit we’re just like everybody else: we’ve fallen in love with Weeks’ potential and skill set. This 24-year-old kid could be an annual 30-30 threat…if he could just stay healthy. That, of course, is the problem with Weeks after playing in a combined 191 games the past two years. He’s set to bat leadoff in a formidable Brewers lineup so the opportunity will be there for a .280-20-60-30 kind of season. Whether or not Weeks will be healthy enough to take advantage remains to be seen.
Howie Kendrick, Angels
.285, 4 HR, 30 RBI, 25 runs, 6 SB, 44 K, 9 BB, 267 AB
Talk about potential: whenever you read or hear about Kendrick, the phrase “future batting champion” almost always pops up at some point. Kendrick hit .362 with 13 homers and 62 RBI in 69 Triple-A games last season, and in 292 career minor league games he hit .359. With second base all his right from Opening Day, expect the 23-year-old Kendrick to deliver on some of that potential in his first full big league season, and while the power numbers may lag a bit, he should still be good for at least .300-12-60-15. That said, we wouldn’t at all be surprised to see him trump that line.
Brandon Phillips, Reds
.276, 17 HR, 75 RBI, 65 runs, 25 SB, 88 K, 35 BB, 536 AB
A lot of people may be surprised to know Phillips is only 25 since he bounced around the Cleveland organization for a couple years before getting shipped south to Cincinnati last spring. Once considered one of the top prospects in the game, Phillips flashed that potential in his first real shot in the bigs. A second-half fade overshadowed Phillips’ excellent first half and has clouded his ’07 outlook a bit, but with true 20-20 potential and as much upside as anyone at the position, the former Cleveland washout should be a solid investment on draft day.
Josh Barfield, Indians
.280, 13 HR, 58 RBI, 72 runs, 21 SB, 81 K, 30 BB, 539 AB
From the Indians’ former “second baseman of the future” to their current one. On the heels of his sensational rookie campaign with the Padres, Barfield is one of the more intriguing players in drafts this year. In a stacked Tribe lineup, there’s no reason to think he won’t top his rookie numbers, and while a 20-20 season may be a tad optimistic, there also are plenty of reasons for optimism here.
Ian Kinsler, Rangers
.286, 14 HR, 55 RBI, 65 runs, 11 SB, 64 K, 40 BB, 423 AB
When the dust settles following the 2007 season, Ian Kinsler’s numbers will probably look eerily similar to Josh Barfield’s. Both are just 24, both have pop and speed, and both play in potent lineups. The one advantage Kinsler may have is the possibility that he’ll hit second for the Rangers ahead of Michael Young and Mark Teixeira. Talk about the sweet spot. Assuming he avoids the injury bug in his second season, expect more solid production across the board from Kinsler.
Dan Uggla, Marlins
.282, 27 HR, 90 RBI, 105 runs, 6 SB, 123 K, 48 BB, 611 AB
Yes, we know Uggla went deep 27 times as a rookie, and yes we know the young Florida lineup is filled with some of the best young talent in baseball. Still, we can’t help but be nervous about Uggla this season. Maybe it’s because he came out of nowhere to break the MLB record for home runs by a rookie second baseman, or maybe it’s the way his average petered out in the second half. Then again, maybe we’re just being too hard on the guy. The bottom line is, with a line like that, Uggla’s going to go for a pretty penny this year, and we’d rather spend that penny on someone a bit more proven.
THE FALLBACKS
Marcus Giles, Padres
.262, 11 HR, 60 RBI, 87 runs, 10 SB, 105 K, 62 BB, 550 AB
Marcus Giles is finally going to deliver that season everybody’s been waiting for because he’s going to play in San Diego with big brother Brian. Right? Right…? We’ll admit that there’s a possibility, however slight, that the younger Giles will enjoy a rebound season playing alongside his older brother, but let’s not get crazy here. The Padres are talking about putting Marcus in the leadoff spot even though he’s proven to be a liability there time and again. Once considered a future 25-25 candidate, the luster is off this fading star, but if he’s out there for 140 games, Giles will still be a useful fantasy second baseman.
Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
.287, 15 HR, 67 RBI, 87 runs, 9 SB, 78 K, 61 BB, 579 AB
When you’re looking for value at this point in the draft, a guy like Hudson should be near the top of your list. He’s not going to blast 25 homers and he won’t steal 30 bags, but he will give you a solid average with decent pop and a bit of speed. At 29, that breakthrough season people had been waiting on will likely never materialize, but a repeat of his 2006 line would make Hudson a fine fantasy middle infielder.
Jose Lopez, Mariners
.282, 10 HR, 79 RBI, 78 runs, 5 SB, 80 K, 26 BB, 603 AB
At just 23, Lopez has a chance to develop into one of the AL’s better offensive second baseman. Fewer strikeouts and more walks would help, and his lack of steals at a position loaded with speed is a detriment, but even slight improvement in his second full season would make Lopez a solid buy.
Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
.344, 6 HR, 85 RBI, 85 runs, 3 SB, 52 K, 31 BB, 582 AB
We’re not going to pretend to know what to do with NL batting champ Freddy Sanchez this year. There’s very little chance he tops .340 again, and with virtually no power or speed to speak of, a steep decline in average would virtually wipe Sanchez’s value out. Then again, he should qualify at second, third and short in most leagues, and if he hit .344 once, logic says he could do it again. Realistically, if you draft Sanchez, look for something closer to .315, a hollow number with single-digit homers and steals backing it up.
Ray Durham, Giants
.293, 26 HR, 93 RBI, 79 runs, 7 SB, 61 K, 51 BB, 498 AB
Nobody – not even Ray Durham – saw a .293-26-93 line coming from Durham when the 2006 season started. Of course, the relevant question now is, can he do it again? Considering the 35-year-old’s previous career high of 20 homers came with the White Sox in 2001, we’ll go out on a limb and say the chances are remote. And since Durham is no longer the speed threat he was in his prime, a return to the 12- to 15-homer level means he’ll go back to being merely an average option this year.
Luis Castillo, Twins
.296, 3 HR, 49 RBI, 82 runs, 25 SB, 58 K, 56 BB, 584 AB
Much like Freddy Sanchez, Castillo’s value is virtually tied to one category: stolen bases. Then again, it’s not like the former Marlin swiped 40 bases last year. The 25 steals were nice, and Castillo has always been good for a .300 average, but with absolutely no power to speak of and a history of leg problems, the 31 year old projects as a poor buy come draft day.
THE REST
Chris Burke, Astros
.276, 9 HR, 40 RBI, 58 runs, 11 SB, 77 K, 27 BB, 366 AB
Burke will man center field for the Astros this year and should hit second ahead of Lance Berkman, making him a fine sleeper. With the potential to reach double-digit totals in homers and steals, there’s a lot to like about Burke, but he’ll have to stay healthy to be a real fantasy asset.
Mark Ellis, A’s
.249, 11 HR, 52 RBI, 64 runs, 4 SB, 76 K, 40 BB, 441 AB
Ellis was one of the hotter second-base sleepers last season but his expected breakthrough never came to fruition thanks in part to a broken thumb in May. It would be unwise to forget about his .316-13-52 line from 2005, but it would also be unwise to draft Ellis as anything more than an end-game middle infielder.
Jorge Cantu, Devil Rays
.249, 14 HR, 62 RBI, 40 runs, 1 SB, 91 K, 26 BB, 413 AB
Speaking of disappointing seasons, Cantu followed up his staggering .286-28-117 line from 2005 with a bona-fide dud last season. The power was still there for the 25 year old but horrible discipline and a broken foot virtually ruined Cantu’s season. The Rays aren’t real sure where Cantu will play in 2007, but expect him to get one more shot to prove ’05 wasn’t a fluke.
Mark DeRosa, Cubs
.296, 13 HR, 74 RBI, 78 runs, 4 SB, 102 K, 44 BB, 520 AB
DeRosa is one of those trap players. He parlayed a breakout season with the Rangers at the age of 31 into a multi-year deal and a starting job with the Cubs. Some fantasy owners may expect continued improvement from DeRosa, but we’re not among them.
Craig Biggio, Astros
.246, 21 HR, 62 RBI, 79 runs, 3 SB, 84 K, 40 BB, 548 AB
Biggio will still give you some pop, but he doesn’t (or is it can’t?) run anymore and his average, thanks to a .201-13-27 second half, is a real problem. He’s 70 hits short of 3,000, so here’s hoping this is the last time we have to rag on the once-great Biggio.
Jose Castillo, Pirates
.253, 14 HR, 65 RBI, 54 runs, 6 SB, 98 K, 32 BB, 518 AB
Castillo’s final numbers look fine, but that’s in large part due to a scorching month of May that saw the 26 year old hit .366 with seven of his 14 total home runs. Castillo has promise, but a questionable work ethic and poor strike-zone judgment have held him back thus far.