Fantasy Baseball Preview: Outfielders
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No matter what your team needs, you've come to the right place. If you're looking for a burner to goose your stolen base totals, check out new Dodger Juan Pierre or, for a fraction of the price, new Rockie Willy Taveras. Need some pop? Try Manny or Andruw or Godzilla. Maybe Adam Dunn, but only if you can withstand the hit to your team average.
Most of all, you're going to find some excellent five-category talent at the outfield position. The first five guys on our list can all go 20-20. More accurately, Alfonso Soriano is coming off a 40-40 season, Carl Crawford hit 18 homers and stole 58 bases, Vlad Guerrero and Carlos Beltran don't run as much as they used to but they make up for it with 40-homer potential, and Grady Sizemore nearly went 25-25 out of the leadoff spot.
Of course, these five guys aren't alone. Carlos Lee, Jason Bay, Bobby Abreu and Torii Hunter all have the same kind of statistical potential, and Alex Rios and Rocco Baldelli aren't far behind. If Coco Crisp can rebound in Boston, he could make a surprise run at 20-20. And did you see what Eric Byrnes did for the Diamondbacks last year?
Most great fantasy teams are well balanced, and the more balanced players you have on your roster, the more balanced production you're going to get. Grabbing someone like Pierre or Jermaine Dye (44 homers) to fill a need is fine, but if you make a point of targeting guys who will give you across-the-board production, you'll find you've got fewer needs to fill.
*NOTE: All analysis based on standard 5x5 roto leagues
THE STUDS
Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
.277, 46 HR, 95 RBI, 119 runs, 41 SB, 160 K, 67 BB, 647 AB
Soriano helped a ton of fantasy owners to a championship last season. Thanks to his move to the Nationals’ gaping home park and rumors that he’d rather sit out the season than play left field, Soriano’s draft stock dropped considerably. Some people said he’d run more (assuming he played) on his new team but that the power would invariably suffer. Seven months later, Soriano was the fourth member of the 40/40 club. While it’d be unfair to expect him to do it again, the 31 year old will again be one of the elite power-speed sources in the game.
Carl Crawford, Devil Rays
.305, 18 HR, 77 RBI, 89 runs, 58 SB, 85 K, 37 BB, 600 AB
Crawford hasn’t managed that 20-homer season yet, but he’s getting closer. As long as he keeps hitting .300 and stealing 50 bases, the 25-year-old Crawford will be a first-round talent. If his expected move into the third spot in the lineup (behind Rocco Baldelli and Delmon Young) results in a 20-homer campaign, you won’t find many more valuable players on draft day. In fact, with 13 homers before the break last year, we may be talking about a 25-homer season next year.
Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
.329, 33 HR, 116 RBI, 92 runs, 15 SB, 68 K, 50 BB, 607 AB
Vlad doesn’t get the respect he once did from fantasy owners, not because his numbers have suffered but because multi-talented threats like Carl Crawford and Jose Reyes have inched past him on just about everybody’s cheat sheets. At one time, owners feared that Guerrero was injury prone, but after playing an average of 151 games in each of the past three seasons, the 31 year old is about as safe as elite outfielders get.
Carlos Beltran, Mets
.275, 41 HR, 116 RBI, 127 runs, 18 SB, 99 K, 95 BB, 510 AB
Fantasy geeks got all excited this winter when Carlos Beltran mentioned something about stealing 40 bases in 2007. We’re sure the former Royal has the speed to do it, but we can’t imagine Willie Randolph setting Beltran loose on the base paths often enough for him to reach 40 steals. As far as we’re concerned, he’s fine doing what he’s doing right now: hitting for power, driving in and scoring a ton of runs, and running often enough to make a difference. It’s unfortunate that Beltran’s average seems to have settled in the .270 range, but after going deep just 16 times two years ago, we’re just happy to see him regain his power stroke.
Grady Sizemore, Indians
.290, 28 HR, 76 RBI, 134 runs, 22 SB, 153 K, 78 BB, 655 AB
At only 24, there’s still room for growth from Grady Sizemore. We’re still waiting on that first .300 season and we’re sure there are 30 homers in that quick bat of his. We don’t want to sound greedy, but when you watch this kid play, it’s hard not to think, “He’s going to get better.” Sizemore’s got the talent to hit third – he led the AL in doubles, extra base hits and runs scored – but he’s a menace for opposing teams as the Indians’ leadoff hitter. If he’s able to cut down on the strikeouts and inch closer to 100 walks, look out. This may be the last year you can draft Grady in the second round.
THE STARS
Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
.321, 35 HR, 102 RBI, 9 runs, 0 SB, 102 K, 100 BB, 449 AB
A little low? Maybe. But consider that Manny’s 34 and, while everyone above him on this list (not to mention the five guys below him) stole at least 10 bases last year, Manny’s swiped a total of three bags since 2004. A knee injury limited the slugger to 130 games and resulted in his lowest home run total since an injury shortened 2002. Now healthy and (supposedly) happy to be back in Beantown, Manny could very well approach the .292-45-144-112 line he delivered two years ago. If you’re looking for power and don’t care about speed, Manny probably ranks a bit higher on your list.
Matt Holliday, Rockies
.326, 34 HR, 114 RBI, 119 runs, 10 SB, 110 K, 47 BB, 602 AB
Holliday’s home (.373-22-78) and road splits (.280-12-36) suggest he’s somewhat of a Coors Field product, but there’s no denying his overall production. The fact that he’s good for 10-15 steals (he stole 14 two years ago) only adds to his value, and while it’d be nice to see Holliday level out those splits a bit, there’s no reason he can’t deliver again in 2007. At 27, expect him to be a top option for years.
Carlos Lee, Astros
.300, 37 HR, 116 RBI, 102 runs, 19 SB, 65 K, 58 BB, 624 AB
Did the Astros pay too much for Lee? Well, there sure are a lot of zeroes in his new six-year, $100 million deal, but keep in mind that Lee is still only 30 and his average line of .290-33-110-97-14 over the past three years will look great behind Lance Berkman. Houston was desperate to find some lineup protection for their best hitter, and they were willing to pay out the nose for it. For fantasy purposes, Lee slides into a pretty nice situation as the Astros’ cleanup hitter, and the fact that he’s never struck out more than 94 times in a single season (last year’s 65 marked a career low) is rather remarkable and bodes well for his chances at a repeat. Lee’s steals will probably settle closer to the 10-12 range but that won’t prevent him from being an elite fantasy outfielder.
Jason Bay, Pirates
.286, 35 HR, 109 RBI, 101 runs, 11 SB, 156 K, 102 BB, 570 AB
The power was there for Bay in his third full ML season, but the average dipped 20 points from 2005 and he stole 10 fewer bags. We love what Bay brings to the table but the drop in steals is a little disappointing, though not nearly as disappointing as the news that Bay will likely hit fifth for the Pirates this year behind NL batting champ Freddy Sanchez and newcomer Adam LaRoche. Huh? Your best hitters are supposed to bat third, and there’s no doubt who the best hitter in Pittsburgh is. Even as the #5 hitter, Bay will be a great fantasy option, but if logic prevails and he’s moved into the three hole, expect even more production.
Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
.322, 9 HR, 49 RBI, 110 runs, 45 SB, 71 K, 49 BB, 695 AB
Count us among those who consider Seattle’s fine right fielder to be an overrated fantasy commodity. Some publications put Ichiro in the top five among outfielders, which is just too high for a guy who may very well fall short of double-digit homers. Some argue that Ichiro’s high average, runs and stolen base totals make up for the lack of power, but those numbers are all over the map the past few years: .372, 101 runs and 36 steals in 2004; .303, 111 runs and 33 steals in 2005; and .322, 110 runs and 45 steals last year. The fact of the matter is, there are several players on this list who could top Ichiro in those three categories this year, and literally dozens who will hit more homers and drive in more runs. He’s good, but not as good as some would lead you to believe.
Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
.303, 32 HR, 106 RBI, 91 runs, 17 SB, 90 K, 54 BB, 611 AB
Wells’ 17 steals are a major reason the centerfielder sits this high in our rankings. He improved across the board in his fifth full season, though he was actually a little better in 2003 when he went .317-33-117-118 with Carlos Delgado protecting him in the lineup. The arrival of Troy Glaus helped Wells rebound from two disappointing years in 2004 and 2005, and the addition of Frank Thomas makes Wells an even stronger bet to repeat this season. Keep in mind that his career path suggests this could be Wells’ statistical peak, so don’t go crazy here.
Andruw Jones, Braves
.262, 41 HR, 129 RBI, 107 runs, 4 SB,127 K, 82 BB, 565 AB
One of the big questions facing fantasy owners last season was whether or not Andruw Jones would be able to successfully follow up his monster .263-51-128-95 line from 2005. The answer is yes…and no. Jones lost one point off his average, drove in one more run and scored 12 more last year, but he hit 10 fewer home runs. Since expecting another 50-homer campaign was unrealistic, the numbers Jones put up last season were still very good and, at 29 and playing for a contract, expect more of the same this year.
Bobby Abreu, Yankees
.297, 15 HR, 107 RBI, 98 runs, 30 SB, 138 K, 124 BB, 548 AB
Abreu is an on-base machine who should enjoy his first full season as a Yankee. The power stroke isn’t what it used to be but, at 33, that’s not entirely surprising. As long as Abreu keeps running (101 steals the past three years) and driving in big runs for the Bombers, he’ll be a very reliable fantasy asset, especially if he hits third this year. And if he manages to hit 25 homers to go along with his .290 average and 30 steals, even better.
Johnny Damon, Yankees
.285, 24 HR, 80 RBI, 115 runs, 25 SB, 85 K, 67 BB, 593 AB
He lost the beard but in his first season in Gotham, Johnny Damon found a little extra power while topping the 20-steal plateau for the first time since 2003. The 24 homers marked a career high so don’t count on that happening again, but even a dip down to 16 or 18 would keep Damon firmly in the upper crust of fantasy outfielders. Hitting leadoff in one of baseball’s best lineups certainly helps, especially when you’ve got Derek Jeter coming up behind you. Damon’s 33 now, but he’s showing no signs of slowing down anytime soon.
Hideki Matsui, Yankees
.302, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 32 runs, 1 SB, 23 K, 27 BB, 172 AB
A broken wrist ended Matsui’s consecutive-games streak and also prevented him from putting up another stellar statistical season, but don’t let that affect your view on the Yankee left fielder on draft day. In fact, savvy owners will understand that Matsui could be one of the year’s better bargains coming off the wrist injury, and while he’ll never be the pure home run threat he was during his career in Japan, Matsui should return to the .300-25-100-100 level he played at in 2004 and 2005.
Gary Sheffield, Tigers
.298, 6 HR, 25 RBI, 22 runs, 5 SB, 16 K, 13 BB, 151 AB
The Yankees lost both of their corner outfielders to wrist injuries last season, and with Bobby Abreu now in the Bronx, they dealt a reportedly healthy Gary Sheffield to the Tigers last November. Comerica Park is going to scare away more than a few potential Sheffield owners, but understand that, even at 38, Sheff remains one of the game’s best pure hitters. His 2005 line of .291-34-123-104 virtually mirrored 2004’s .290-36-121-117 performance, and while there is some cause for concern, Sheffield shouldn’t have a problem rebounding with a .290-30-100 season as the Tigers’ likely #3 hitter.
Juan Pierre, Dodgers
.292, 3 HR, 40 RBI, 87 runs, 58 SB, 38 K, 32 BB, 699 AB
It looks like Pierre’s days as a leadoff hitter are at least temporarily over. The Dodgers have said they plan on keeping shortstop Rafael Furcal at the top of the order with the newly signed Pierre occupying the second spot. That’ll likely result in a few more bunts for the speedy center fielder, but the Dodgers gave him a five-year, $44-million deal in November knowing that Pierre’s best asset is speed, so don’t expect much of a drop there. In fact, because he’s no longer dealing with the pressure of hitting leadoff, Pierre may actually be in line for his first .300 season since 2004.
THE DEPENDABLES
Adam Dunn, Reds
.234, 40 HR, 92 RBI, 99 runs, 7 SB, 194 K, 112 BB, 561 AB
All we’re asking for is .260. After going .266-46-102-105 in 2004, Adam Dunn’s power certainly hasn’t wavered, going deep 40 times each of the past two seasons, but his average has dropped from .247 in ’05 to .234 last year. We’re still high on Dunn but unless he can pull his average back up over .260, he’s going to be a liability in that category. Of course, depending on your situation you may be willing to take the hit, knowing that 40-homer guys don’t grow on trees. Dunn is still 27 so he should be a great power source for years, and if that average creeps back up, look out.
Alex Rios, Blue Jays
.302, 17 HR, 82 RBI, 68 runs, 15 SB, 89 K, 35 BB, 450 AB
We’re not the only ones harboring a man crush for Rios this year. When you consider he’s 26 and he went .330-15-53 during the first half last year, it’s easy to see why. A staph infection in his leg sent Rios’ numbers spiraling in the second half (.261-2-29) and limited him to just 128 games. Now fully healthy and expected to hit second ahead of Vernon Wells, a full season may very well result in a .300-25-100 line with 20 steals. Bump him up a few notches in keeper leagues.
Jermaine Dye, White Sox
.315, 44 HR, 120 RBI, 103 runs, 3 SB, 118 K, 59 BB, 539 AB
Dye has been a solid run producer for years but nobody could’ve seen .315-44-120 coming. He had similar success with the Royals earlier in his career, hitting .321-33-118-107 in 2000, but that was the last time Dye hit better than .300 and he hadn’t driven in more than 100 runs since 2001. In other words, even though he’s entering a contract year, it would be unwise to count on Dye as a .300-40-120 type. Be happy if he goes .290-30-100.
Delmon Young, Devil Rays
.317, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 16 runs, 2 SB, 24 K, 1 BB, 126 AB
Caution is recommended when contemplating Young’s fantasy value this season. In keeper leagues, he’s obviously a prime target but what can we expect from the 21-year-old rookie this year? Growing pains, for starters. He’s got all the tools to be a .300-30-100-30 threat, but don’t look for it this year. Even more important, don’t pay for it this year. Project conservatively with the games hottest young name (maybe .280-20-75-20) and hope for more.
Torii Hunter, Twins
.278, 31 HR, 98 RBI, 86 runs, 12 SB, 108 K, 45 BB, 557 AB
Hunter swatted a career best 31 homers last year while still managing a solid .278 average. We’d like to see more steals (he had 23 in just 98 games two years ago) but Hunter has very quietly developed into one of the most underrated five-category players in the game. Better yet, he comes at a fraction of the price of some of the other comparable 20-20 threats.
Michael Cuddyer, Twins
.284, 24 HR, 109 RBI, 102 runs, 6 SB, 130 K, 62 BB, 557 AB
This seems like a pretty good spot for Minnesota’s suddenly intriguing cleanup hitter. Big things were expected of Cuddyer from the beginning. Of course, we say that like people have been waiting on the guy since 1997. Cuddyer is still just 28 and he’s got one of the sweetest gigs in baseball: hitting between AL batting champ Joe Mauer and AL MVP Justin Morneau. Think he’s going to see any fastballs? An improved K/BB ratio could make Cuddyer a .300 hitter, and we think he could top out at 28-30 homers as early as this year.
Raul Ibanez, Mariners
.289, 33 HR, 123 RBI, 103 runs, 2 SB, 115 K, 65 BB, 626 AB
It’s not often you see a 33 year old set a career high in homers, but that’s just what Raul Ibanez did for the Mariners last year. With a two-year average of .284-26-106, Ibanez has established himself as a low-cost power source who will probably settle around .280-25-100 this year.
Rocco Baldelli, Devil Rays
.302, 16 HR, 57 RBI, 59 runs, 10 SB, 70 K, 14 BB, 364 AB
Is there a 30-homer season in Baldelli’s future? Probably not this year, but at 25, there may very well be one on the way. After returning last June from knee and elbow injuries, Rocco will reportedly slide into the leadoff spot in Tampa this year, a move that should maximize his stolen-base potential. If he is in fact ready for 500 at-bats, Baldelli could deliver a .300-23-80-100-25 season.
Jeff Francouer, Braves
.260, 29 HR, 103 RBI, 83 runs, 1 SB, 132 K, 23 BB, 651 AB
There’s a whole lot of power in Jeff Francouer’s bat, but if he doesn’t improve his plate discipline (132 strikeouts vs. 23 walks??) he may never hit higher than .265. Don’t get too down on him, though, because as long as he’s hitting 30 homers a year, we’ll take .265. The potential downside is, his patience doesn’t improve and he hits .240.
THE FALLBACKS
Barry Bonds, Giants
.270, 26 HR, 77 RBI, 74 runs, 3 SB, 51 K, 115 BB, 367 AB
Barry Bonds will pass Hank Aaron this year to become baseball’s all-time home run leader. Some people will cheer, a lot more people will boo, and almost everyone will be glad it’s over. What will it all mean in the fantasy world? Don’t count on many more than 125 games, and while that would probably translate into a 30-homer season, the average is a wild card. Bonds is just two years removed from hitting .362, but he’s also 42. To be safe, consider last year’s line to be his ceiling, but honestly, this season will go one of two ways for Bonds: either he’s healthy for the first time in two years and he proves everybody wrong, or his numbers continue to tail off.
Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks
.267, 26 HR, 79 RBI, 82 runs, 25 SB, 88 K, 34 BB, 562 AB
If we’d asked you 30 seconds ago to name all the players who hit 25 homers and stole 25 bases last year, we’re willing to bet you wouldn’t have named Eric Byrnes. He’s 31 so it’s not like we’re talking about a kid who’s finally figuring it out, but Byrnes has always had an intriguing blend of power and speed. He went .283-20-73-91-17 for Oakland in 2004, and while 2005’s final line isn’t very pretty, remember that he played for three different teams that year. Now happy and healthy in Arizona and expected to hit in the meat of the order, Byrnes may not go 25-25 again, but 20-20 seems more than reasonable.
Nick Markakis, Orioles
.291, 16 HR, 62 RBI, 72 runs, 2 SB, 70 K, 43 BB, 491 AB
At just 23, Markakis is an excellent keeper-league target. His final numbers aren’t overly impressive, but consider that he hit .311-14-41 in the second half. It looks like this kid gets it, and he also gets to hit third in front of Miguel Tejada. Sweet.
Pat Burrell, Phillies
.258, 29 HR, 95 RBI, 80 runs, 0 SB, 131 K, 98 BB, 462 AB
Pat the Bat has more closely resembled Pat the Bust, at least to his fantasy owners. Now 30 and coming off his third sub-.260 average in four years, Burrell definitely has pop, but he’s one of the more inconsistent power hitters in the game. You think .258 and .257 are bad? Burrell hit .209 in 146 games four years ago. That kind of downside makes Burrell a gamble despite his power.
J.D. Drew, Red Sox
.283, 20 HR, 100 RBI, 84 runs, 2 SB, 106 K, 89 BB, 494 AB
Drew could be a sneaky acquisition this season. He played in at least 140 games for the second time in three years, and while his 20 home runs were a bit of a disappointment, his career-high 34 doubles and .283 average suggest that may have been more bad luck than anything else. Hitting behind Big Papi and Manny, Drew has a chance to put up some very good numbers.
Coco Crisp, Red Sox
.264, 8 HR, 36 RBI, 58 runs, 22 SB, 67 K, 31 BB, 413 AB
Coco could be an excellent value pick this season. Hitting him leadoff probably wasn’t the best move, but with Julio Lugo now atop the order and Daisuke Matsuzaka eating up all the headlines, Crisp can now do his thing lower in the lineup without hearing all the Johnny Damon comparisons. Don’t forget that Coco hit .300-16-69-15 for the Indians two years ago, and he’s still just 27.
Mike Cameron, Padres
.268, 22 HR, 83 RBI, 88 runs, 25 SB, 142 K, 71 BB, 552 AB
Cameron played real well in his first year with the Padres, offering his trademark power, speed and defense in center while also hitting a respectable .268. Cameron is 34 so there’s nowhere to go but down at this point, but if he can go .260-20-80-80-20, he’ll be a very good fourth outfielder.
Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
.298, 24 HR, 104 RBI, 82 runs, 1 SB, 87 K, 45 BB, 593 AB
The numbers look fine but we’re not convinced Ordonez is anything more than a decent fantasy outfielder at this point. Having Gary Sheffield hitting in front of him should help Mags but his injury history combined with his sagging power numbers make it hard to be optimistic. At 33, it’s time to forget about the .300-30-120-100 seasons.
Corey Patterson, Orioles
.276, 16 HR, 53 RBI, 75 runs, 45 SB, 94 K, 21 BB, 463 AB
Corey Patterson owners don’t like the word ‘platoon,’ but when you hit .207-3-14 against left-handed pitching, you deserve to ride the pine every so often. The good news is, despite being limited to 135 games and 463 at-bats, Patterson shocked everyone by stealing 45 bases and adding a solid .276 average with decent pop. Even in a platoon role, Patterson has value.
Jacque Jones, Cubs
.285, 27 HR, 81 RBI, 73 runs, 9 SB, 116 K, 35 BB, 533 AB
At this point in his career, what you see is what you’re going to get from Jones. The 46-point improvement on his average sure was nice, and maybe NL pitching agrees with him more than the American League. Either way, Jones probably bumped up against his ceiling last year. Expect a slight regression toward .270-24-75.
Brad Hawpe, Rockies
.293, 22 HR, 84 RBI, 67 runs, 5 SB, 123 K, 74 BB, 499 AB
After hitting .232-3-10 against lefties in his second full season with the Rockies, Hawpe will likely lose some AB’s to Jeff Baker. Hawpe had success in the minors against LHP so there’s reason to believe he’ll eventually figure it out in Colorado. He struck out a ton last year but he also had a nice .383 OBP. If Hawpe earns more consistent at-bats, you could be looking at a .295-30-90 season.
Josh Willingham, Marlins
.277, 26 HR, 76 RBI, 62 runs, 2 SB, 109 K, 54 BB, 502 AB
Now that he won’t qualify at catcher, Willingham isn’t quite so appealing. He’s 28, so there may not be a whole lot of room for growth, but expecting a slight bump in average along with consistent power and maybe a few more RBI seems reasonable. Willingham hit both lefties and righties pretty well as a rookie so he’s in no danger of losing at-bats, and his solid second half indicates another productive season is on the way.
Willy Taveras, Rockies
.278, 1 HR, 30 RBI, 83 runs, 33 SB, 88 K, 34 BB, 529 AB
Don’t get all crazy thinking Taveras is going to become a fantasy star now that he’s in Colorado. The guy hit four home runs in two years with the Astros, so don’t expect a jump in power. But if Taveras can up the average to .290 and take a few more walks, he could look a lot like Juan Pierre, only he’ll be on the board 10 rounds after Pierre’s taken.
Ryan Freel, Reds
.271, 8 HR, 27 RBI, 67 runs, 37 SB, 98 K, 57 BB, 454 AB
Freel should play all over the place again this year, but he’ll likely earn the vast majority of his PT in right field. Fortunately, he’ll also qualify at second and third in some leagues, and while you can’t count on 500 at-bats from the speedy leadoff hitter, he’s always been a useful fantasy asset with limited playing time. There’s no reason to expect that to change this year.
Austin Kearns, Nationals
.264, 24 HR, 86 RBI, 86 runs, 9 SB, 135 K, 76 BB, 537 AB
Finally able to log 150 games, Kearns made good on some of his potential, setting a career-best with 24 homers while hitting better than .240 for the first time in three years. His home park and the Nationals’ weak lineup limit Kearns’ upside, but he is only 26 so there may be more homers on the way. He’ll have to stay healthy to do it, though.
Dave Roberts, Giants
.293, 2 HR, 44 RBI, 80 runs, 49 SB, 61 K, 51 BB, 499 AB
Roberts was fantastic for the Padres last season, setting career marks with a .293 average and 49 steals. All that in just 129 games. As with many speedsters, Roberts is a black hole in the power department, but he’s a very useful end-game addition for teams needing extra speed.
Chris Young, Diamondbacks
.243, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 10 runs, 2 SB, 12 K, 6 BB, 70 AB
Lots of hype surrounding this kid. Of course, when you have the kind of electrifying power/speed combo that Young possesses, you’re going to generate some hype. At 23, he’ll be the everyday centerfielder in Arizona and he may get a chance to lead off. Don’t expect miracles in his rookie season, but .280-15-60-18 is a possibility.
Carlos Quentin, Diamondbacks
.253, 9 HR, 32 RBI, 23 runs, 1 SB, 34 K, 15 BB, 166 AB
Quentin projects as a .300-30-100 type of player, and some say it’ll happen this year. We’re not ready to make such a bold proclamation, but if he shows enough during spring training, the D-Backs could move Quentin up in the order and give him more RBI chances. If that happens, look for something more reasonable: .280-23-85.
Andre Ethier, Dodgers
.308, 11 HR, 55 RBI, 50 runs, 5 SB, 77 K, 34 BB, 396 AB
Ethier showed why he was regarded as one of the finest outfield prospects in the game during his abbreviated rookie season with the Dodgers. He has a real shot of winning the right-field job, but it looks like even if he does, he’d hit seventh or eight. No matter. As long as he gets a chance to play everyday, the 24-year-old Ethier could quickly become one of the better young hitters in baseball.
Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
.251, 5 HR, 28 RBI, 37 runs, 4 SB, 70 K, 33 BB, 307 AB
Nobody slept on Jeremy Hermida last year, but now it appears a ton of people are willing to risk sleeping on him this season. Sure, he didn’t deliver on all the wild projections, but injuries limited him to 99 games and he never got going as a rookie. He hit .293-18-63-23 with 111 walks in only 118 games at Triple-A two years ago, so the talent is definitely there. At just 23, Hermida has plenty of time to turn that talent into production.
THE REST
Curtis Granderson, Tigers
.260, 19 HR, 68 RBI, 90runs, 8 SB, 174 K, 66 BB, 596 AB
Simply put, leadoff hitters cannot strike out 174 times. Granderson has some nice skills but he didn’t steal as many bases as some expected and his second-half slide (.238-8-25) suggests he’s not ready to be a ML leadoff hitter. If he’s going to be useful in his second full season, he’ll need to improve his plate discipline and work on his average. In the meantime, Granderson may still lead off against RHP but he’ll find himself lower in the order – or on the bench – against lefties.
Craig Monroe, Tigers
.255, 28 HR, 92 RBI, 89 runs, 2 SB, 126 K, 37 BB, 541 AB
Now 30 years old, Monroe has become a decent late-round power source. He hit .293 in 128 games three years ago and .277 in 157 games in 2005, so an improvement over last season’s .255 mark is possible. If he can do that while hovering around 30 homers, Monroe will be a nice value.
Moises Alou, Mets
.301, 22 HR, 74 RBI, 52 runs, 2 SB, 31 K, 28 BB, 345 AB
As long as you’re prepared to be without Alou for extended chunks of time, you won’t be disappointed with his output. Alou’s average line the last three years is .304-27-81 despite playing in an average of 125 games. He’ll never repeat his 2004 season (.293-39-106) but Alou should be good for another .300-20-75 performance in the bottom half of the Mets’ lineup.
Brian Giles, Padres
.263, 14 HR, 83 RBI, 87 runs, 9 SB, 60 K, 104 BB, 604 AB
Giles still doesn’t strike out very often, but long ago are the days of .300-35-110-100-15. In fact, Giles hasn’t topped 20 homers in two years after averaging 32 per season from 1999-2004. Now 36 and playing in a park that only enhances Giles’ power outage, he may be a little better than he was last year, but don’t hold your breath.
Ken Griffey, Reds
.252, 27 HR, 72 RBI, 62 runs, 0 SB, 78 K, 39 BB, 428 AB
Griffey is expected to be ready for opening day after breaking his hand wrestling with his kids during the offseason. Following 2005’s mini revival (.301-35-92 in 128 games), Griffey barely topped 400 at-bats last season and registered his third sub-.255 average in the last four years. Now 37 and with 500 homers in his rearview mirror, Junior’s career seems to be winding down.
Shane Victorino, Phillies
.287, 6 HR, 46 RBI, 70 runs, 4 SB, 54 K, 24 BB, 415 AB
It looks like Victorino will get a chance to hit second in Philly this year. We’re not sure how that’s going to work out but the 26-year-old topped 45 steals twice in the minors, so he could be a cheap speed source. Track his spring closely.
Chris Duffy, Pirates
.255, 2 HR, 18 RBI, 46 runs, 26 SB, 71 K, 19 BB, 314 AB
Like Shane Victorino, Chris Duffy looks to be a reasonable late-round addition if you’re searching for some added speed. The Pirates have talked about hitting the 26 year old leadoff, but while his 26 stolen bases from a year ago look nice, that brutal 71-19 K/BB ratio won’t stand up well at the top of the order.
Kenny Lofton, Rangers
.301, 3 HR, 41 RBI, 79 runs, 32 SB, 42 K, 45 BB, 469 AB
Lofton should lead off for the Rangers most days, though he could be benched against some lefties. The 39-year-old former Indian has held up very well, and while he’s no longer the dynamic player he was in the 1990s, Lofton can still give you a .300 average with plenty of speed and runs.
Scott Podsednik, White Sox
.261, 3 HR, 45 RBI, 86 runs, 40 SB, 96 K, 54 BB, 524 AB
There is no shortage of all-speed/no-power guys, a tag Scott Podsednik has rightfully earned after stealing 99 bases and hitting just three home runs over the past two years. There’s always talk about Pods losing his job to someone younger, more durable and more powerful, but Ozzie Guillen keeps plugging him in at the top of the order. As long as he’s playing, you can expect 40 steals and absolutely no power.
THE SHUNNED
Gary Matthews, Angels
.313, 19 HR, 79 RBI, 102 runs, 10 SB, 99 K, 58 BB, 620 AB
Sorry, but we’re not touching this guy. We doubt Matthews will be logging anywhere near 620 at-bats this year.
Sammy Sosa, Rangers
.221, 14 HR, 45 RBI, 39 runs, 0 SB, 84 K, 39 BB, 380 AB (2005)
Call us non-believers. If Sammy wins a job with the Rangers, he’d have a chance to put up decent power numbers, but we just don’t see it happening. Maybe he’ll prove us wrong, but he looked finished with the Orioles in 2005 and we’re not expecting him to look any better at 38.