Fantasy Baseball Preview: First Basemen
Fantasy Preview Home / Sports Channel / Bullz-Eye Home
What are you going to find at first base? Gobs of power. The first four guys on the list topped 40 homers, and two of them topped 50. Rightfully so, Albert Pujols, David Ortiz, Ryan Howard and Travis Hafner fill out our "Studs" tier. (Note: In some leagues, Hafner and Ortiz will only qualify at DH/Util.)
Of course, the position is anything but top heavy. After Hafner, eight of the next nine first basemen eclipsed 30 home runs on the year, and the ninth player, Derrek Lee, likely would have if not for a broken wrist. But on the off chance that you miss out on all of those guys -- and really, what the hell kind of draft plan did you have if you failed to land any of those 13 sluggers? -- there are still plenty of boppers to choose from, including youngsters Prince Fielder (28 HR), Adam LaRoche (32 HR) and Nick Swisher (35 HR), and veterans like Lyle Overbay (22 HR) and Frank Thomas (39 HR).
Unfortunately, along with the power boost that some of the guys below offer comes a hit in average. Carlos Delgado and Richie Sexson came in at .265 and .264 respectively while Jason Giambi and Nick Swisher failed to even crack .255. All of which makes .300 hitters like Paul Konerko, Lance Berkman and AL MVP Justin Morneau that much more valuable. Still, with so many mashers to choose from, it's not like you need to reach for a first baseman early. In fact, some of the guys in the first three tiers could fall into your lap in rounds six or seven while value sluggers like LaRoche and the Marlins' Mike Jacobs will be there even later. So don't panic if you miss out on Pujols and Papi. There's plenty of run production to go around.
*NOTE: All analysis based on standard 5x5 roto leagues
THE STUDS
Albert Pujols, Cardinals
.331, 49 HR, 137 RBI, 119 runs, 7 SB, 50 K, 92 BB, 535 AB
Fifty strikeouts. Forty-nine home runs…and 50 strikeouts. Seriously? Look at the next 15 players (ignoring Derrek Lee for the moment) on this list. All but one of them whiffed more than 100 times last season, and the only one in double digits was AL MVP Justin Morneau with 93. The average for those 15 players: 125.6 strikeouts. We left the Cubs’ Lee out of the equation since he only logged 175 at bats, but even he was on pace for 125.5 before breaking his wrist. And then there’s Pujols, with one more strikeout than home run. Slacker. We love Jose Reyes, but when you take Albert Pujols, you’re locked in for at least .330-40-120-120. He’ll even give you a few steals (16 in 2005). Not many strikeouts, though.
David Ortiz, Red Sox
.287, 54 HR, 137 RBI, 115 runs, 1 SB, 117 K, 119 BB, 558 AB
There aren’t many sure things in fantasy baseball, but Papi is one of the few. In fact, while Pujols holds the edge over Ortiz in average (.331 vs. .296) the last three years, Papi’s been the more prodigious run producer (142 HR, 424 RBI vs. 136 HR, 377 RBI). As long as Manny’s in Beantown, Ortiz will continue to post gaudy numbers, and while logic says he can’t possibly set a career high in homers for an eighth consecutive season, would it really surprise you if he did?
Ryan Howard, Phillies
.313, 58 HR, 149 RBI, 104 runs, 0 SB, 181 K, 108 BB, 581 AB
Someone suggested to us last year that Ryan Howard would be better than Mark Teixeira. Who knew? Granted, we’ve got a long way to go before we can pass final judgment on that comparison, but the fact that Howard currently holds the edge is a tribute to just how great the NL MVP was in his first full season. Keep in mind that Howard is 27, which means he likely doesn’t have much more room to develop. Then again, who says he needs to?
Travis Hafner, Indians
.308, 42 HR, 117 RBI, 100 runs, 0 SB, 111 K, 100 BB, 454 AB
After belting a career-best 42 homers in only 129 games, Pronk is finally getting the respect he deserves. He’s only averaged 135 games a year since 2004, but the injuries (a broken hand last season) have all been fluky. Hafner will be gone by round three in most leagues, so the secret is out. If he can avoid the DL, there’s no reason he can’t go .300-45-125.
THE STARS
Mark Teixeira, Rangers
.282, 33 HR, 110 RBI 99 runs, 2 SB, 128 K, 89 BB, 628 AB
We wouldn’t fault you for taking Mark Teixeira ahead of Travis Hafner. That potential .300-45-125 season we just projected for Pronk? Teixeira did that two years ago: .301-43-144. People will be down on the switch-hitter after 2006’s ugly first half (.275-9-49), but those in the know understand that one poor half doesn’t erase the massive numbers Tex has put up in his brief but brilliant career. Forget about that ugly half and grab Teixeira in the second or third.
Justin Morneau, Twins
.321, 34 HR, 130 RBI, 97 runs, 3 SB, 93 K, 53 BB, 592 AB
It still seems strange: Justin Morneau, AL MVP. Don’t get us wrong, the 25-year-old slugger had a sensational season but…come on, MVP-worthy? Ortiz, Hafner and Paul Konerko all had similar numbers, as did several AL outfielders. The point here is, don’t by swayed by the hardware: Morneau’s an excellent fantasy first baseman who plays in a solid lineup, just don’t fall all over yourself trying to get him on draft day.
Lance Berkman, Astros
.315, 45 HR, 136 RBI, 95 runs, 3 SB, 106 K, 98 BB, 536 AB
Healthy again, the switch-hitting Berkman delivered a career year for Houston, topping his .292-42-128 line from 2002. Just 31 and with newcomer Carlos Lee now protecting him in the lineup, the stage is set for Berkman to repeat in 2007, although a slight dip would hardly be surprising. Of course, when you’re dipping from 45 homers and 136 RBI, chances are you’re still going to make a lot of fantasy owners happy.
Paul Konerko, White Sox
.313, 35 HR, 113 RBI, 97 runs, 1 SB, 104 K, 60 BB, 566 AB
It’s hard to think about Konerko without that nightmarish 2003 season (.234-18-65) coming to mind, which is strange considering the lefty sports an average of 39 homers, 110 RBI and 93 runs since ‘03, all while hitting .291 and playing in 155 games a year. At this point, you know exactly what you’re going to get from Konerko, and it won’t be a .234 average. Being sandwiched in the lineup between a healthy Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye makes Konerko that much more appealing.
Derrek Lee, Cubs
.286, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 30 runs, 8 SB, 41 K, 25 BB, 175 AB
Lee will undoubtedly be one of your draft’s biggest wild cards. We were all anxious to see if the 6’5” slugger could match 2005’s unreal .335-46-107-120-15 line last season, but after breaking his wrist last April we’re still waiting to find out. Consider that, prior to ’05, Lee’s single-season highs were 32 homers, 98 RBI and a .282 average, and you can see why we’re a little nervous about the former Marlin. If healthy, he’ll be good. The question is, how good?
Carlos Delgado, Mets
.265, 38 HR, 114 RBI, 89 runs, 0 SB, 120 K, 74 BB, 524 AB
Since 1998, Carlos Delgado has driven in more than 100 runs every year but 2004, when he totaled 99. During that stretch, the massive lefty hit an average of 37 homers a year, never finishing below 32 in a single season. The average is somewhat hit or miss (.302-.269-.301-.265 the past four years), but the power never is.
THE MUSCLE
Jason Giambi, Yankees
.253, 37 HR, 113 RBI, 92 runs, 0 SB, 106 K, 110 BB, 446 AB
After logging 68 of his 139 games at first base last year, Giambi looks to be spending most of his time as a DH in ’07. The effect that has on his numbers is directly related to the effect it will have on his health. Giambi’s logged 139 games in each of the past two seasons after playing in just 80 the year before. Now that he seems to have fully regained his power stroke, a 150-game season could result in a .270-40-115 line as the Yanks’ #5 hitter. Don’t forget about him.
Jim Thome, White Sox
.288, 42 HR, 109 RBI, 108 runs, 0 SB, 147 K, 107 BB, 490 AB
A case could certainly be made for Thome deserving a bump in our rankings, but we just can’t shake the feeling that his health will be a problem again soon. Maybe it’s the aftertaste of that lost 2005 season (.207-7-30), or the fact that Thome’s now 36. Whatever the reason, Thome seems likely to be overvalued this year after such a successful return to the American League. Can he do it again? Absolutely. Will his cranky back cooperate? That’s the million dollar question.
Richie Sexson, Mariners
.264, 34 HR, 107 RBI, 75 runs, 1 SB, 154 K, 64 BB, 591 AB
Some may be surprised to see Sexson’s year-end average so high. Of course, we use ‘high’ in a relative sense considering the 6’8” Sexson hit .218 in the first half. A .322-18-48 finish helped him close with a line similar to 2005’s (.263-39-121), but unless Sexson can offer more consistent production throughout the season, he’ll remain a frustrating player to own.
THE FUTURE
Prince Fielder, Brewers
.271, 28 HR, 81 RBI, 82 runs, 7 SB, 125 K, 59 BB, 569 AB
Prince Fielder stole five more bags in his rookie season than his daddy did during his 13-year career. Prince may not have Cecil’s wheels, but thankfully the family slugging gene was passed down. Just 22, Fielder could be a lethal power source for years to come, especially if he continues to hone his on-base skills. Look for at least 30 homers and a bump in RBI.
Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
.304, 24 HR, 82 RBI, 83 runs, 0 SB, 113 K, 52 BB, 570 AB
Gonzalez seems to be flying under the radar this year, which is great for those who stumble upon the 24 year old in the middle rounds of their drafts. In his first real shot at playing time, the former top prospect didn’t disappoint, and while his gaping home park may slightly depress his value, there’s little doubt that Gonzalez has a .300-30-100 season in his future, perhaps as early as this year.
Adam LaRoche, Pirates
.285, 32 HR, 90 RBI, 89 runs, 0 SB, 128 K, 55 BB, 492 AB
A roaring second half propelled the 27-year-old LaRoche to a career year and, in turn, helped the Braves score lefty reliever Mike Gonzalez from the Pirates. LaRoche should move into a prime spot in the batting order, hitting cleanup behind Jason Bay, which means he’ll have the opportunity to match last year’s production. Whether or not he will is up for debate, but we say he comes close.
Nick Swisher, A’s
.254, 35 HR, 95 RBI, 106 runs, 1 SB, 152 K, 97 BB, 556 AB
Mr. Moneyball improved across the board in his second full season, slugging 14 more homers and driving in 21 more runs than he did in 2005 while also upping his average nearly 20 points. Of course, .254 ain’t exactly Tony Gwynn-like, but if the 26-year-old Swisher continues to trend upward, he’ll be a big bargain this year.
Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
.291, 15 HR, 79 RBI, 75 runs, 1 SB, 73 K, 54 BB, 485 AB
At just 24 years old, Jackson has about as much upside as anyone on this list. He has yet to develop big-time power, but at 6’2”, 225 pounds, there’s little reason to doubt that it’ll come. Jackson hit .354 in Triple-A two years ago and better than .300 in every minor league stop along the way, so in his second full season we’re expecting .300-22-90.
THE FALLBACKS
Todd Helton, Rockies
.302, 15 HR, 81 RBI, 94 runs, 3 SB, 64 K, 91 BB, 546 AB
How the mighty have fallen. Todd Helton backed up his .372-42-147 line in 2000 with a .336-49-146 performance in 2001, numbers that helped lock the Rockies’ first baseman in as an annual first-round selection. These days, it appears Helton is little more than a mediocre fantasy option whose best asset is a solid average. Injuries have virtually zapped the 33-year-old’s power and he hasn’t driven in more than 100 runs since 2003. Ignore the name.
Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays
.312, 22 HR, 92 RBI, 82 runs, 5 SB, 96 K, 55 BB, 581 AB
Overbay won’t contend for any home run derby titles but there’s still some value here, even at a position dominated by sluggers. When he’s at his best, Overbay is racking up doubles and driving the occasional mistake over the fence while carrying a .300 average. He won’t give you 30 homers and we doubt he’ll top 100 RBI, but Overbay remains a very solid CI type.
Frank Thomas, Blue Jays
.270, 39 HR, 114 RBI, 77 runs, 0 SB, 81 K, 81 BB, 466 AB
The Big Hurt is a dangerous proposition this season. The power numbers look fantastic, but keep in mind that last season was the first time since 2003 that Thomas was able to log more than 74 games, having averaged 54 games in 2004-05. Of course, that proves Thomas can still be highly productive when healthy, and he’ll be part of a solid lineup in Toronto. The question now is, will he be healthy enough to take advantage?
Nomar Garciaparra, Dodgers
.303, 20 HR, 93 RBI, 82 runs, 3 SB, 30 K, 42 BB, 469 AB
There are two things that make Nomar a less-than-ideal selection on draft day. The first, and most obvious, is his lengthy injury history. Like Frank Thomas, Garciaparra’s last healthy season came in 2003, when he logged 156 games for the Red Sox and subsequently hit .301 with 28 homers and 105 RBI. In ’04 and ’05 he played a combined 143 games and hit 18 total homers with an average right around .300, which speaks to the second reason Nomar’s not nearly the fantasy commodity he once was: his middling power doesn’t hold up well at first base. If you can get 120 games from him again, Garciaparra will deliver a solid line, but don’t expect any miracles.
Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
.279, 13 HR, 72 RBI, 100 runs, 5 SB, 120 K, 91 BB, 569 AB
No longer Boston’s leadoff hitter (that role now belongs to Julio Lugo), it looks like Youkilis will open the year hitting second. Last year’s second-half fade (.258-3-29) raises some flags but hitting in front of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez should give Youk plenty of chances to improve upon his 2006 numbers while scoring bunches of runs. Bonus: he’ll qualify at third and in the outfield in some leagues.
Mike Jacobs, Marlins
.262, 20 HR, 77 RBI, 54 runs, 3 SB, 105 K, 45 BB, 469 AB
Beware the platoon. The 26-year-old Jacobs hit just .182 against lefties during his rookie season, so there’s a very real chance he loses AB’s to a right-handed platoon mate this year. That said, Jacobs hit .281-18-66 against RHP so even if he sits more often in ’07, the average should be better and the power should still be there. Of course, if he improves enough to secure the full-time gig, Jacobs will out-produce his draft position.
Ryan Shealy, Royals
.280, 7 HR, 36 RBI, 29 runs, 1 SB, 50 K, 15 BB, 193 AB
Shealy hit .284-15-55 in 58 Triple-A games before getting shipped to KC last July, and in limited action for the Royals he showed he could be a serviceable everyday first baseman. Keep in mind that Shealy is 27, he strikes out too much and doesn’t walk enough, so his upside may not be as high as some would believe.
THE REST
Rich Aurilia, Giants
.300, 23 HR, 70 RBI, 61 runs, 3 SB, 51 K, 34 BB, 440 AB
Aurilia’s biggest asset will be his versatility, qualifying at first base (47 games in ‘06), third base (52), shortstop (26), and even second (10) in some leagues. Of course, expecting a repeat from the 35 year old would be a bit optimistic considering the last time he hit more than 15 homers and topped a .300 average was 2001. His new home ballpark won’t help matters either.
Dan Johnson, A’s
.234, 9 HR, 37 RBI, 30 runs, 0 SB, 45 K, 40 BB, 286 AB
Johnson started the season in a 1-for-37 hole and never really dug himself out, spending more than a month in the minors and failing to live up to some optimistic expectations. He delivered a .275-15-58 line in only 109 games two years ago, so the potential’s there. Problem is, the potential for him to lose playing time to Nick Swisher at first is also there. Johnson needs a good spring and a hot start to the season to lock down regular AB’s.
Ty Wigginton, Devil Rays
.275, 24 HR, 79 RBI, 55 runs, 4 SB, 97 K, 32 BB, 444 AB
You’ll get some pop from Wigginton (he went deep 17 times for the Mets and Pirates in 2004), and he qualifies at several different positions, so there’s some value here. Will he hit .275 again? Maybe, maybe not, but assuming he can get 450-plus AB’s, Wigginton’s versatility should make him a useful fantasy option.
Nick Johnson, Nationals
.290, 23 HR, 77 RBI, 100 runs, 10 SB, 99 K, 110 BB, 500 AB
You hear the name ‘Nick Johnson,’ you think two things: walks and injuries. Johnson finally put together the kind of season people had been expecting from the former Yankee farmhand, posting a .428 OBP and even swiping 10 bases, but a broken leg ended his season prematurely and now the talk is the 28-year-old Johnson could miss most or all of the first half of the season as his leg continues to heal. As such, he seems best suited as someone to snag off the waiver wire if and when he returns rather than someone to target on draft day.