Fantasy Baseball Preview: Catchers
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Opinions vary greatly when it comes to draft strategy for catchers. Some owners prefer to snag one of the elite options early in hopes of gaining an edge over fellow owners who are left with the position's scraps. Other owners prefer the scraps because they don't have to pay a premium for someone like Minnesota's Joe Mauer or Atlanta's Brian McCann. The logic is sound from both sides, so it really comes down to personal preference, and we've always preferred to let others burn an early pick on the top catchers while we fill the position 10 or even 15 rounds later with a solid power option or a young kid with some upside.
If you'd rather grab a top guy early, you can't go wrong with Mauer or the Tribe's Victor Martinez, and while there's some uncertainty surrounding McCann following his breakout sophomore campaign, it's safe to rank him third at the position. All three guys should give you a .300 average with double-digit pop and solid run production, while Mauer will even steal the ocassional base. If you choose to wait, there are seven other reliable options, including the catcher-eligible Mike Piazza, who will spend 2007 DH'ing in Oakland. After that, the pickings are kind of slim so you probably want to get one of the guys in the top-10 or roll the dice on someone like Rockies rookie Chris Iannetta.
Whichever way you go, understand that who you have at catcher isn't going to make or break your season. It's one position, and since most catchers are lucky to get in 140 games a year, it's probably the least important position on your entire roster.
*NOTE: All analysis based on standard 5x5 roto leagues
THE STUDS
Joe Mauer, Twins
.347, 13 HR, 84 RBI, 86 runs, 8 SB, 54 K, 79 BB, 521 AB
Be careful here. Mauer’s great, and at only 23 you can expect the power to improve. But will he hit .347 again? Maybe, but we wouldn’t bet a third-round pick on it. If you have to have an elite catcher, you can’t go wrong with Mauer. Just make sure you look at what else is on the board before pulling the trigger.
Victor Martinez, Indians
.316, 16 HR, 93 RBI, 82 runs, 0 SB, 78 K, 71 BB, 572 AB
V-Mart’s homer totals have fallen each of the past two years – from a high of 23 in 2004 to just 16 last season – but during that span his average has steadily climbed from .283 to .316. Hitting in the middle of a stout Cleveland lineup, you can expect another excellent all-round season, though it may be wise to look for 15-20 homers as opposed to 20-25.
THE STARS
Brian McCann, Braves
.333, 24 HR, 93 RBI, 61 runs, 2 SB, 54 K, 41 BB, 442 AB
McCann gave his owners Jorge Posada’s power and (virtually) Joe Mauer’s average in his sophomore season, finishing third in the NL with that .333 clip while matching Posada and Victor Martinez with 93 RBI. As with Mauer, though, caution is recommended when considering the 23-year-old McCann on draft day. His minor-league track record suggests the power may be legit but the average may not.
Kenji Johjima, Mariners
.291, 18 HR, 76 RBI, 61 runs, 3 SB, 46 K, 20 BB, 506 AB
What’s not to like? In his first season stateside, Johjima delivered across the board and did so consistently, hitting .287 with 10 homers before the break and .295 with eight jacks after. It’d be nice to see more walks from the Seattle backstop in his second season, but Johjima is legit and, even better, he’ll likely cost you a lot less than the other quality catchers on this list.
Michael Barrett, Cubs
.307, 16 HR, 53 RBI, 54 runs, 0 SB, 41 K, 33 BB, 375 AB
Barrett’s another guy who should come at a discount compared to the other big names at the position. All the former Expo has done the past three seasons is average .289-16-60, numbers that look especially impressive when you consider Barrett only played in 107 games last year after suffering a rather gruesome injury in September (if you want the details, click here). He’s healthy and ready to toil in relative fantasy obscurity again this season. Now if only the Cubs would move him up in the order.
Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
.275, 23 HR, 91 RBI, 66 runs, 1 SB, 79 K, 43 BB, 501 AB
Don’t pay for Hernandez’s 23 home runs. Expecting a repeat performance from a guy whose homer totals have fluctuated from 15 to 7 to 21 to 18 to 12 to 23 the past six seasons would be foolish, especially when there are so many similar catchers available. The 30-year-old Hernandez should deliver a solid season in 2007, but look for .275-15-70 and be pleasantly surprised if he gives you more than that.
Mike Piazza, A’s
.283, 22 HR, 68 RBI, 39 runs, 0 SB, 66 K, 34 BB, 399 AB
We admit we’re rather high on Piazza, Oakland’s catcher-eligible DH, but that doesn’t mean we’re expecting him to replicate the numbers Frank Thomas put up last year for the A’s (39 HR, 114 RBI). That said, not many people expected Piazza to bounce back the way he did for the Pads last year, and as Oaktown’s full-time DH in ’07, a bump in production could very well be on its way, if for no other reason than he’ll likely play in more than 126 games now that he won’t be crouching behind the plate everyday. Piazza may not match Big Hurt’s production, but a .290-30-85 season isn’t out of the question.
Jorge Posada, Yankees
.277, 23 HR, 93 RBI, 65 runs, 3 SB, 97 K, 64 BB, 465 AB
After disappointing a bit to the tune of .262-19-71 in 2005, Posada rebounded nicely for the Yanks last season. In fact, the .277 average, 23 homers and 93 RBI marked his best year-end totals since 2003. Now 35 and entering his 13th season, a slight dip in production is a realistic expectation, but Posada should still offer enough power to be a solid option.
Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers
.300, 13 HR, 69 RBI, 74 runs, 8 SB, 86 K, 26 BB, 547 AB
If you want name recognition, Pudge is your man. The numbers are solid, but some schmuck is going to see “Ivan Rodriguez” on his draft board and think “elite catcher.” Pudge hasn’t been elite for a couple years now, and at 35 there’s no reason to expect the days of 20-plus homers and 85 RBI to return, especially not while he’s playing in cavernous Comerica Park. Big accordingly…or better yet, let someone else.
Russell Martin, Dodgers
.282, 10 HR, 65 RBI, 65 runs, 10 SB, 57 K, 45 BB, 415 AB
Now, if you’re looking for someone to take a chance on at catcher, the 24-year-old Martin is your man. His final numbers won’t knock you over the head, but the kid is just getting started and his minor league stats indicate the best may be yet to come. We’re not suggesting Martin will be the second coming of Mike Piazza (though Dodger fans would surely love that), but the rookie’s stats were all legit across the board, including the 10 steals. Buy.
THE FALLBACKS
Chris Iannetta, Rockies
.260, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 12 runs, 17 SB, 17 K, 13 BB, 77 AB
All signs point to Iannetta being the favorite over Javy Lopez for Colorado’s starting gig. The 23 year old has good on-base skills (.370 OBP) and mashed in the minors (.321-11-26 in Double-A, .351-3-22 in Triple-A), so if he wins the job, pounce. And really, he’s going up against Javy freaking Lopez, so we like his chances of entering the season as the starter.
A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
.295, 16 HR, 64 RBI, 65 runs, 1 SB, 72 K, 22 BB, 509 AB
Beware the career year. Sure, Pierzynski’s flashed some power before (18 homers in 2005) and he’s hit .300 a couple of times during his career, but until last year he’d never done both in the same season. Of course, that doesn’t mean he can’t do it again, just don’t pay a premium to find out, especially with Toby Hall expected to eat into Pierzynski’s playing time in ’07.
Bengie Molina, Giants
.284, 19 HR, 57 RBI, 44 runs, 1 SB, 47 K, 19 BB, 433 AB
Moving to Pac Bell certainly won’t help Molina’s power numbers, and considering last season’s 19 homers marked a career high for the former Angel, the 32-year-old Molina is a shaky bet on draft day. He’s always been good for a solid average and decent pop, but don’t expect a repeat in San Fran.
THE REST
Johnny Estrada, Brewers
.302, 11 HR, 71 RBI, 43 runs, 0 SB, 40 K, 13 BB, 414 AB
Estrada hit .314 with 76 RBI for the Braves in 2004, so his production in Arizona wasn’t a fluke. He should be able to hit .290 with 8-10 homers for the Brewers, but he’ll also lose PT to backup Damian Miller so be careful.
Josh Bard, Padres
.338, 9 HR, 40 RBI, 28 runs, 1 SB, 39 K, 27 BB, 231 AB
Who knows, maybe the 29-year-old Bard had it in him all this time. At this point in the draft, you won’t lose much if you roll the dice on San Diego’s new starter, just don’t be surprised if you’re cutting him a month or two later.
Jason Varitek, Red Sox
.238, 12 HR, 55 RBI, 46 runs, 1 SB, 87 K, 46 BB, 365 AB
Maybe we’re being too hard on Varitek, but the 34 year old has spent a lot of time behind the plate and his body seems to be wearing down because of it. A rebound isn’t out of the question, but don’t expect Varitek to be healthy all season.
Ronny Paulino, Pirates
.310, 6 HR, 55 RBI, 37 runs, 0 SB, 79 K, 34 BB, 442 AB
Paulino is another youngster who merits attention this spring. He hit .317 in Triple-A two years ago and never looked back after taking Ryan Doumit’s job last April. Paulino should start for the Bucs and could hit .300 with 10 homers.
Jason Kendall, A’s
.295, 1 HR, 50 RBI, 76 runs, 11 SB, 54 K, 53 BB, 552 AB
If you’re considering Kendall, we hope it’s because you’re in an AL-only league that requires two catchers. Or it’s 1998 again and nobody told us.
Miguel Olivo, Marlins
.263, 16 HR, 58 RBI, 52 runs, 2 SB, 103 K, 9 BB, 430 AB
Olivo’s 16 homers mean he belongs somewhere on our list. His career .240 average and previous career best of seven home runs mean you shouldn’t be looking for a repeat.