Too good to be true? Nah
05/27/2003
Codding Home / Sports Channel / Bullz-Eye Home
I knew it was going to happen. I knew it.
The Cleveland Cavaliers land the right to select LeBron James in the NBA Draft Lottery last Thursday and what happens?
Besides that all-night bash in the Gund Arena offices... .
You damn conspiracy theorists start running your damn disbelieving mouths again.
I knew it.
For years, you've been saying that the Lottery is rigged. How else could the struggling Knicks get Georgetown star Patrick Ewing in 1985? How else could the Orlando Magic first get a hulking center from LSU in 1992, Shaquille O'Neal, and then Fab-Fiver Chris Webber (later dealt to Golden State for Penny Hardaway -- ouch) in 1993? How else could the Wizards get the first overall selection in 2001, which coincidentally was also the year of Michael Jordan's glorious return to the hardwood in Washington?
It's obvious, right? The Lottery is fixed.
It has to be fixed, you say. Last Thursday marked the first time since 1990 that the team with the worst record -- and therefore the best chance of winning the Lottery -- actually got the first pick. That's it. Just twice in the past 14 years have the odds worked in favor of the league's worst team.
Smells kinda suspicious to me.
But now that the Cavaliers, who shared the NBA's poorest record at 17-65, hit the jackpot, there again are rumblings that something funny was going down in Secaucus, New Jersey last week, that NBA Puppetmaster David Stern pulled his strings once more, only this time he actually lent a hand to his most pitiful product.
It's just too convenient, you argue. Rumors had the Cavs possibly bailing on Cleveland within the next few years thanks to the league's worst home attendance (11,497 last year) and an overall apathetic relationship with their dwindling fan base. Having LeBron lace up for the Gund (suddenly) faithful, though, would ensure that the Cavaliers wouldn't follow the Grizzlies and Hornets down that dreaded relocation road while simultaneously giving the team a financial boost that would make Viagra proud. Ticket sales would explode, #23 jerseys would be even hotter than the retro variety, Cleveland-area stores would sell out of 'Bron's new kicks before they even hit the shelves. And because of the superstar status he already enjoys in northeast Ohio, LeBron's impact would be much more lucrative in Cleveland than in any other NBA market.
Much more lucrative for not only C-town, you declare, but Mr. Stern as well.
So let me see if I've got this right:
You claim that the Lottery is rigged when teams with the lowest chances of landing the top spot do just that.
And now, you claim it's rigged when the team with the best chance of landing the top spot does just that.
What gives? What would make you guys happy? For once, the odds actually pan out, everything falls in favor of the league's sorriest franchise...and still your unsatisfied?
Damned if you do and damned if you don't, I guess.
Look, do I absolutely believe in the integrity of the Lottery? Of course not -- you'd be a fool to simply accept the process without at least asking some logical questions. But for years you've all been griping about how the percentages haven't worked in favor of the league's lamest teams. This year, though, you're all griping about how the percentages did work in favor of the league's lamest team.
Damn, now my head hurts.
Seriously, what do you want? If the Grizzlies had gotten the top spot, the only selection they would've been allowed to keep under the terms of a past trade with the Pistons, you would've cried about how Stern slipped an ace under the table to NBA legend Jerry West. Had the Raptors come out on top, you would've cried about how Stern was trying to pump some air back into Vince Carter's deflating rep. If the Heat received the first pick, you would've cried about how Stern wanted to show some love to another league icon, Pat Riley. If it were the Clippers or Bulls, you would've cried about how Stern was trying to boost the appeal of two struggling large-market teams.
I don't even want to think about what would've happened had the Knicks wound up at #1... .
It's enough to make me wonder if the common fan really knows what the term "percentage" means. It's a word that refers to probabilities, not absolutes. Each year, there are teams that have higher percentages of winning the Draft Lottery and, subsequently, teams that have lower percentages of winning the Draft Lottery. That does not, however, mean that because Team A's probability of landing the first pick is greater than Team B's, Team B mathematically cannot come out on top. And vice-versa.
Does that make sense?
And yet, whenever Team B beat out Team A in the past, you all called Stern a cheat and a crook.
This year, the odds said that the Cavs and Nuggets had the best chances of winning the LeBron Sweepstakes and, wouldn't you know it, the ping-pong balls actually bounced along those percentages.
And now you're all calling Stern a cheat and a crook again.
Even worse, people in Cleveland, both from the general public and the media, have generated much of the conspiracy talk. All year we kept saying the league wouldn't let us have the hometown kid; now that we've got him, we're saying the league made it happen. Perhaps as Cleveland fans, we're simply not used to winning anything, much less the rights to a teenaged superstar like LeBron James with the potential to save a pathetic franchise. Are we that jaded, that pessimistic? Is it really impossible for us to believe that Lady Luck, that snotty bitch who's dumped drinks on our heads and slapped us in the face for decades, finally agreed to go home with us on the night of Thursday, May 22, 2003?
Guess what -- the odds said that we, along with the Nuggets, had a better shot than anybody of leaving the party with Lady Luck on our arm, and yet we still think Stern slipped something in her drink.
Do I believe in miracles? Sometimes. But I certainly believe in percentages and mathematical probability. Saying that the NBA fixed the Lottery this year is too easy. Believing that the city of Cleveland finally caught a break? Now that's a challenge.
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