Watered-down pitching & watered-down records

Watered-down pitching & watered-down records

Codding Home / Sports Channel / Bullz-Eye Home

Editor's note: This column was originally printed on June 1, 2001; updated May 8, 2003.

What two names don't belong: Hank Aaron, Mickey Mantle, Babe Ruth, Fred McGriff, Mike Schmidt, Willie Mays, Ted Williams, Gary Sheffield, Jimmie Foxx, Ernie Banks.

... If you're still thinking about this brain buster, it's time to forget about sports altogether and maybe take up belly dancing or erotic acupuncture. Seriously.

For everyone else who guessed McGriff and Sheffield, congrats. You're the big winner, and as a reward, you get (trumpets and a drum roll please)... .

... the joy of reading the rest of this column! Woo-hoo! 

When the 2003 baseball season began, there were 17 members in the prestigious 500-Home Run Club. Since then, Sammy Sosa has received his laminated membership card, and Rafael Palmeiro and Fred McGriff have begun filling out their lengthy applications.

Of the club's 18 current members, two are still active (Bonds and Sosa), 15 are enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, and one more (Mark McGwire) will likely get the nod his first year of eligibility. Additionally, of those 15 Hall of Famers, all but two (Harmon Killebrew and Eddie Matthews) were voted in on their first ballots. Impressive, huh?

Yup, it's an exclusive organization indeed. In fact, the 3000-hit club (25) and the 300-win club (20) both boast longer membership lists than the group headed by Hank Aaron's 755 round-trippers. And because of that selectiveness, a player who swatted at least 500 dingers during his career had been considered a surefire Hall of Famer for decades.

But is that really the case anymore? I mean, Bonds is a first-ballot guy all the way, and certainly Sosa could get in on his first try, especially if he surpasses that 600-homer plateau that Bonds trumped last year. But is the next batch of hitters poised to join this long ball guild really Cooperstown material?

Palmeiro (498), McGriff (481), Griffey (469) and Juan Gonzalez (417) are the lone active Major Leaguers, aside from Bonds and Sosa of course, with 400 or more career jacks. Palmeiro's the only lock for 500 in this group, and with the way he's been swinging the bat (an average of nearly 44 homers per year since 1998) a run at 600 isn't completely out of the question. McGriff, on the other hand, will be 40 in October and while he's remained surprisingly productive the past few years, his early struggles this season with the Dodgers indicate that the Crime Dog may need a tow truck to reach the 500 level. And then there's Griffey and Gonzalez, two supremely gifted ballplayers who've recently spent more time on the DL than the batter's box. Junior's currently down with a separated shoulder but Gonzalez, after hitting just eight homers with 35 RBI in 70 games last season, currently shares the Major League lead with 12 round trippers...which suggests that a DL stint should be waiting just around the corner for Juan Gone.

So the question is, are these guys Hall of Famers? After all, of the 25 Hall-eligible players with at least 400 career long balls, only three -- Darrell Evans (414), Andre Dawson (438) and Dave Kingman (442) -- have not been enshrined. Griffey, with his 1997 MVP award, not to mention 10 Gold Gloves and a .296 career batting average, likely has established his Cooperstown career already, regardless of how many bombs he ends up with and in spite of his apparent physical breakdown. But now at 33, an assault on Aaron's career mark, a realistic possibility for Junior just two years ago, is now out of reach. Sosa, who will be 35 in November, could join Bonds in the 600 Club assuming he stays healthy and should also be inducted.

But what about Raffy, McGriff and Gonzalez? Of the three, Gonzalez is the biggest name but he's also got the most ground to cover on his way to 500. He'll be 34 in October and, while he's pounding the ball this season after delivering 35 homers for Cleveland two years ago, in 2000 and 2002 he managed a paltry 30 combined home runs for Detroit and Texas. He hasn't belted 40 homers since 1998, which was also the last year Gonzalez played in at least 150 games. But what he has in his favor right now is the DH. Palmeiro, on the other hand, could hit #500 by the end of this week but McGriff may have a hard time reaching that number by the end of this season -- there have already been several rumors of the Dodgers, trying to keep up with the Giants in the NL West, looking to replace McGriff's aging bat in the lineup.

For argument's sake, though, let's assume that Gonzalez, Palmeiro and McGriff all make it. When they finally take their analyst jobs with ESPN or Fox, let's say these three all have joined Reggie Jackson, Bonds, Frank Robinson and everyone else in the 500 Home Run Club. What's next?

Palmeiro, in my mind, has the best shot at Cooperstown. He's playing consistently better ball right now than the other two, meaning he should end up with more homers than McGriff and his Texas teammate. Plus he's a career .292 hitter, a three-time Gold Glove winner at first base and a four-time All Star. He's driven in 100 or more runs every year since 1995 (averaging 121 RBI per season in that timeframe), he's got better than 2,600 hits already, and he's struck out more than 100 times just once in his 18-year career. And while he's never led his league in homers, his name is constantly splashed throughout the leader board and he has topped the AL in doubles (49 in 1991), hits (191 in 1990) and runs (124 in 1993). 

McGriff, meanwhile, has a .286 lifetime average with 2,434 hits as of May 8. He's driven in 100 runs eight times over 17 years, but his career-best was only 107 in 1996 (Palmeiro's was 148 in 1999). McGriff has never been a flashy hitter -- his season highs of .318-37-107 don't exactly remind you of Lou Gehrig -- but from 1988-1994 he averaged nearly 35 homers and 95 RBI a year, and he's also led his league in homers twice, 1989 (36) and 1992 (35). He's never won a league MVP award, although he's finished in the top 10 in voting six times, and he's never won a Gold Glove either, but the Crime Dog is a five-time All Star and a World Series champ, winning it all with the Braves in 1995. Plus he's got a cool nickname.

And then there's Gonzalez, a two-time MVP and three-time All Star who owns a career .296 average. He's been a big-time run producer when healthy, driving in 100 runs eight times while surpassing the 130-mark in 1996, '97, '98 and 2000. He's led the AL in homers twice (43 in '92 and 46 in '93) and topped the league in RBI (157 in '98) and doubles (50, also in '98) once.

So after all those stats, who's Cooperstown material? Palmeiro's probably going to make it, though perhaps not in his first eligible year. A .290-plus hitter with 500 homers and a few Gold Gloves deserves it. This would be a no-brainer, though, if Raffy sticks around until the 2005 season, which should get him close to not only 600 homers but 3,000 hits as well, a mark of excellence only attained by Aaron and Mays. McGriff, meanwhile, won't be a first-ballot guy, and he may not make it at all, but his career was about as consistent as they come and if he somehow manages to reach the 500/2500 level, it may be hard to keep him out, especially with that World Series ring he's got. Still, if I had a vote I'd pass over McGriff's consistent yet unspectacular career regardless of his final home run tally.

And then there's Gonzalez, the real enigma in this comparison. He could blow by 500 next year if he avoids the disabled list, or he could struggle to reach even 475 if the injury bug bites him again. Those two MVP trophies look great as does his reputation as one of this generation's ultimate run producers. Oh, and he's hit better than .300 five times. There'd be a definite argument if that magical 500th homer ever leaves the ballpark, but right now Juan Gone's credentials just aren't impressive enough.

The sad truth about all of this, of course, is that in an era when 160-pound shortstops are hitting 30 homers a year, the prestige that went hand-in-hand with the 500 Home Run Club has been tarnished, which makes it easier for me to lobby against a guy like McGriff. Sosa, Alex Rodriguez, Griffey and even Palmeiro all have a decent shot at joining Bonds in the 600 Club before they retire. In the more than 100-year history of this great game, only three players had managed to top 600 before Bonds -- Aaron, Ruth and Mays. These guys are legendary. They're the guys you envision whenever you're sitting in the bleachers watching an afternoon game. When the Babe was hitting his 714 jacks, he was hitting more home runs than most of the other teams in baseball, let alone his peers. And then 40 years later Hammerin' Hank broke the unbreakable record, passing Babe with his 715th and never looking back. The fact that Mays even came within 55 of Ruth's record is amazing, too. But now you've probably got a half dozen guys who could eventually approach 600-plus. It's sad.

If you go back 10 years, maybe even just five or six, the 500 Home Run Club was majestic. The math boggled the mind: "If you hit 30 homers a year for 15 years, you'll still end up with only 450. That's 50 shy of immortality." That's what made Aaron and Ruth and Foxx and Banks so special. It was a magical number, a group that only the game's absolute best could ever hope to join. 

But now things have changed. Good players will soon join the party and great players will take the numbers to new heights. In 20 years, we could honestly see this list balloon from 18 to 30 or 40 players, or more. No joke. Think about it for a second: Troy Glaus, the slugging third baseman for the Angels, is only 26 and he's already got 153 homers -- 29 his rookie year, 40-plus in both 2000 and 2001, 30 last year and five this season. Let's say he ends the year with 40 round-trippers, giving him 188 at the age of 27 and leaving him just 312 short. He could realistically be 35 and have his 500 homers -- that's only 39 a year for the next 10 years. If he played until he was 40, Glaus would only need to hit an average of 24 a year. Five or 10 years ago, sure, that may have been a long shot. But today? With the watered-down pitching, expansion, Coors Field, the Detroit Tigers' staff? Hell, guys are hitting 45 homers in their late-30s -- check out Mr. Palmeiro and Bonds.

What about Manny Ramirez and his 314 career homers? He's only 30, and if you give him at least 30 more this year, that leaves him 156 short at the age of 31. That's no problem: 17 a year for nine more years? Or maybe 40 each season for only four more years. You don't think Manny Ramirez can do that? He's averaged just better than 40 every year since 1998, and that includes injury-shortened seasons in 2000 (38 in 118 games) and 2002 (33 in 120 games). Or how about Todd Helton? He plays in Colorado, for crying in thin air, and at 29 he's got 192, six of those coming this year. Give him another 30 this year at the very least and he's 278 shy of 500 by his 30th birthday. Come on, you can do the math: 28 a year for another 10 years and he's got it.

The sad truth is guys are swatting 45 homers and we don't even flinch. Alex Rodriguez -- who would have found his way into the Hall anyway, regardless of how many homers he finishes with -- has 309 at the age of 27. Carlos Delgado is 30 and he's got 274 career bombs. Houston's Jeff Bagwell will fly by 400 this season and at 34, he should get to 500 without breaking a sweat, as could Mike Piazza (34 years old, 350 homers), Gary Sheffield (34, 348), Jim Thome (32, 340), Jason Giambi (32, 234) and Andruw Jones (26, 194). I haven't even touched on young sluggers like Lance Berkman, Vlad Guerrero, Albert Pujols, Magglio Ordonez and Alfonso Soriano, who combined hit 192 homers last year at the ages of 27, 27, 23, 29 and 25, respectively. 

Sure, guys like A-Rod, Piazza and Manny would probably get to the Hall of Fame even without 500 homers on their résumés, but I just pinpointed 10 guys who could realistically join the 500 Club within the next 10 years along with Palmeiro, McGriff, Griffey and Gonzalez. That's a total of 14 within the next 10 years, nearly doubling the number of current members. To date, the highest number of players to hit their 500th homers within 10 years of one another was six: Aaron, Mays, Mantle, Williams, Banks and Matthews all accomplished the feat between 1960-1970. Could we really see as many as 14 do it before 2013, maybe more? What do you think?

And there's one more thing to consider. There are six players who all retired within 50 homers of the 500-mark -- Gehrig (493), Stan Musial (475), Stargell (475), Dave Winfield (465), Carl Yastrzemski (452) and, of course, Jose Canseco (462). You can't really expect that to happen in today's money-driven, numbers-oriented game. First, a player who finds himself so close to a milestone that would traditionally book his flight to Cooperstown will do everything in his power to hang on until he's blasted that last dinger. Call it the Rickey Henderson Agenda, if you'd like. And second, struggling teams in desperate need of both cash flow and publicity make it much easier for these players to land jobs in their career twilights...if they haven't been "blackballed," of course. "Come to the ballpark tonight for a chance to see Wade Boggs get his 3,000th hit... and while you're at it, try to stomach a Devil Rays game, too!" You can call that one the Tampa Bay Syndrome. Agents know all of that and love to use it as leverage when trying to get that final contract for their aging clients. What owner wouldn't want to have someone who's chasing history on his team, assuming he's still at least somewhat productive? Especially if he can just be thrown into the lineup everyday as the DH, keeping his sluggish legs and hands on the bench until it's time to bat again.

Unfortunately, it looks like the once-esteemed 500 Home Run Club has lost some of its mystique as simply good players like Fred McGriff join the game's genuine legends. And while it's true that we often don't fully appreciate greatness until well after it's slipped from the public eye, I don't think even 50 years from now I'd be able to support Canseco's Cooperstown arrival had he hung on for those final 38 dingers. A Hall of Fame career should be one that represents both superiority and consistency, and once upon a time those two qualities were also present in the 500 Home Run Club. But much like today's pitching, the quality of the players on that list will soon become diluted, and if we don't change our standards, the quality of the players we admire in the Hall of Fame will naturally deteriorate as well. Don't get me wrong, hitting all those home runs still is a magnificent accomplishment, but if dozens of players are doing it every 10 or 15 years, just how magical can it really be anymore?


Questions/comments? Send all e-mails to jcodding@bullz-eye.com.

 
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