Take me back to the ballgame
04/02/2003
Codding Home / Sports Channel / Bullz-Eye Home
A lot has changed since I last penned a column in late February: our country went to war, Eminem won an Oscar and I became a father.
I still, however, can't figure out which of these events is the scariest.
Fortunately, during a time when I'm overrun by a steady flow of war updates and the constant screams of a hungry newborn, baseball once again offers solace as the calendar inches toward the warmth of spring and the eventual onset of summer. And as I watched the Indians blow their season opener in the Baltimore snow, Corey Patterson perform his best Sammy Sosa impersonation and Greg Maddux get worked by the Vlad-less Expos, I began to wonder what the 2003 baseball season had in store.
A few minutes later, I discovered what my daughter's diaper had in store but, mercifully, I won't share the gruesome details.
I saw the Yankees once again buying the AL East crown, but then I saw Toronto catcher Ken Huckaby slam into Derek Jeter as he slid into third base, dislocating his shoulder. Still, Mike Mussina will rejoin the AL's elite with Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, "Hemmingway" Wells and Jeff Weaver rounding out an insanely deep rotation, and while they've got some injury issues to worry about, we all know that George Steinbrenner ain't afraid of no luxury tax -- if he needs to rent more high-priced talent before the deadline this year, he'll pop open that checkbook faster than Bud Selig can utter the words "competitive balance."
About the only teams that should have trouble playing in the AL Central this season are the Tigers, Royals and Indians, who could lose a combined 300 games in 2003. Looking for the worst team in baseball? You probably should start your search here. Looking for the best the AL has to offer? Sorry, guys, but it's not the Twins and it certainly won't be the Sox, who will slide in behind Minnesota in the Central race. Sure, I can see the Twinkies winning 90-95 games... which puts them right on pace to match last season's 94-67 mark but still leaves them behind the Yanks, A's and maybe even Boston.
Speaking of the A's, don't expect them to deal shortstop Miguel Tejada this season even though management already admitted they'll not be able to afford the reigning MVP once his contract expires after the 2003 season. With last year's Cy Young winner Barry Zito once again forming the toughest 1-2-3 rotation punch in all of baseball alongside Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder, the A's will top 100 wins for the third-straight year, but they'll need Miggie in the middle of the order to finally do significant damage in October. And watch out for newcomers Keith Foulke, who will challenge for the AL lead in saves with a tidy ERA and WHIP (for all you fantasy leaguers out there), and former Yankee Ted Lilly, who will win 15-plus while overmatching inferior fourth starters all year.
So with the Yankees, Twins and A's all repeating as division champs, who manages to slide into the playoffs with a Wild Card berth? Not the Angels -- I just don't see it. They made for a great story last year and the roster remains intact, but I'm still trying to figure out how they pulled it off. They'll be in the hunt, certainly, but I see some big holes in the rotation after Jarrod Washburn and Ramon Ortiz (Kevin Appier?) and I'll be surprised if both Tim Salmon and Darrin Erstad stay healthy again this year. This team was good enough to ambush the rest of baseball in 2002 but I don't think the Angels have enough talent to now defend their throne. The White Sox could tag along for much of the summer, but there's no way Bartolo Colon wins 20 again (check out those declining strikeout totals... ) and while Magglio Ordonez, Paul Konerko and a motivated Frank Thomas can all mash, the top of the Chicago order is weak and the defense is about as reliable as Michael Jackson in a street fight. The Rangers could break even on Buck Showater's determination alone, but with that rotation .500 represents a best-case scenario in Texas.
All of which leaves the Red Sox and Mariners to slug it out for that final playoff invite. I have serious doubts that Derek Lowe can do it again this season and no legitimate contender should be throwing Tim Wakefield onto the mound every fifth day, but Pedro, Manny, Nomar and Johnny Damon can't be overlooked. Unfortunately for Sox fans, this whole "closer by committee" experiment constructed by stats guru Bill James hasn't really panned out in the early going: Alan Embree and Chad Fox boast identical 27.00 ERAs after two games while Bobby Howry sits at 54.00. Impressive. As for Seattle, they play in a tougher division and they have their own questions on the mound -- ace Freddy Garcia looks lost right now, Jamie Moyer's pushing 50, Joel Pineiro and Gil Meche are untested, and closer Kaz Sasaki has a cranky elbow. But the Mariners have three Gold Glovers on the right side of the field (John Olerud, Bret Boone and Ichiro) and another Gold-Glove caliber fielder in center (Mike Cameron), so they will again challenge through September. Still, I've got to give the edge to Boston, especially if they break down and bring in a gritty ninth-inning guy (Armando Benitez?) to bolster the 'pen.
The National League isn't as easy to predict, though. The East is up for grabs, where the Braves will be tested by the renovated Phillies along with the Expos and Mets, who both have the talent to win 85-90 games. Atlanta replaced Tom Glavine, Kevin Millwood and Damian Moss with Russ Ortiz, Paul Byrd and Mike Hampton. Yikes. Even worse, Glavine's now sporting a Mets uni and Millwood's in Philly, which won't exactly make divisional play for Atlanta an easy task. Of course, having Jim Thome, Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell, Jimmy Rollins and David Bell backing up a staff of Millwood, Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla makes the Phillies an unappealing opponent for everybody else in baseball. The Mets should be better than last year's dreadful 75-86 record while the Expos, who snuck out 83 victories in 2002, will get a better performance from ace Javier Vazquez and improvement from young Tony Armas. But by the end of the season, it'll be the Braves and Phillies fighting for the division, with Larry Bowa's bunch eventually coming out on top.
The Central, meanwhile, belongs to the Cardinals. Or the Astros. Or maybe the Cubs. Or even... the Reds? Matt Morris and Woody Williams are both solid at the front of the St. Louis rotation, and Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen give the Cards gobs of pop, but it won't be easy to get by the Astros, who have two of the best young arms in the National League, Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller, supporting Jeff Bagwell, Lance Berkman and Jeff Kent. But could this actually be the year that the Cubs live up to expectations? With Kerry Wood and Mark Prior on the mound, they can pitch with anybody in baseball, but Sammy Sosa still doesn't have enough protection in a lineup that will miss the steady Fred McGriff. As for the Reds, they'll score some runs but that rotation is atrocious. So who's it going to be? I'll give the nod to Houston despite their mediocre defense, especially with Octavio Dotel and Billy Wagner anchoring the bullpen, with the Cards following closely behind... close enough, in fact, to nab the Wild Card and knock the Braves out of the playoffs.
And then, there's the West. The Diamondbacks, Giants and Dodgers won a combined 285 games last season but LA, despite its 92-70 record, failed to make the playoffs. Arizona will once again ride the aging arms of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, but will it be enough to outlast Barry and the Giants? One of these years, RJ, who turns 40 in September, will rejoin the mortal world... and I say it's this year. Now, I'm not suggesting he'll suddenly fall from 24-5 to 15-12, but I'll go out on a limb and predict that Johnson loses 10 games for the first time since 1998, a slight decline that'll leave the D-Backs behind San Fran in the standings. Of course, if we're talking about advancing age I guess I can't exclude Mr. Bonds from the discussion, who himself will be 39 in July. His dominance can't last forever either, but he's got more than enough left to lead the Giants on one more title push. The rotation is a little suspect and losing Kent will hurt the offense a bit from a sheer power standpoint, but look for newcomers Edgardo Alfonzo and Ray Durham to contribute plenty. Alfonzo in particular should deliver some big run-scoring stats while hitting behind Bonds, something to the tune of 20 homers and 110 RBI with a .300-plus average. They may not win 100, but the Giants will finish ahead of Arizona and LA, who will once again be looking for a way to replace Kevin Brown once he falls victim to another injury.
So I've got the Yankees, Twins, A's and Red Sox in the American League, and the Phillies, Astros, Giants and Cardinals in the NL. Oakland will meet the Yankees in the ALCS while the Giants and Astros square off in the NLCS. And for the second-straight year, it looks like we'll have a West Coast Series with a rematch of the 1989 clash between Oakland and San Fran for the title. Once again, Barry's bunch comes up short in six games thanks, in large part, to the A's stellar rotation and the Giants' average one.
What about the postseason awards, you ask?
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez, Tex
NL MVP: Albert Pujols, StL
AL Cy Young: Pedro Martinez, Bos
NL Cy Young: Roy Oswalt, Hou
AL Rookie of the Year: Travis Hafner, Cle
NL Rookie of the Year: Kurt Ainsworth, SF
Of course, you can find these kinds of predictions anywhere. How 'bout the stuff that everybody really cares about, like who hits the DL first: Ken Griffey Jr. or Juan Gonzalez? I say Juan Gone -- back problems are bad news, and I've always been a Griffey guy.
First manager fired? How much longer can Mike Hargrove have in Baltimore? Grover came to the O's in 2000, and in those three years he's gone 205-281, including a 4-32 finish last year. Pittsburgh skipper Lloyd McClendon's days are also numbered if the Pirates don't improve.
AL worst record? It'll be a battle between the Devil Rays and Tigers, but Lou Piniella should be able to squeeze 65 wins out of his young Tampa Bay team. And that'll be at least five more than the Tigers can manage.
NL worst record? It was the Brewers last year, and I don't see any reason for that to change in 2003, not even with the additions of superstars Royce Clayton and John Vander Wal... .
Combined wins for the Oakland trio of Zito, Hudson and Mulder? I'll say 62, with Zito and Hudson getting 20-plus each and Mulder 17-18.
Combined strikeouts for Schilling and Johnson? Last year they totaled 650 (316 for Schilling and 334 for Johnson), but in 2003 I say that total drops below 600 for the first time in two years.
Home runs for Bonds? An even 50 seems about right, with an average hovering around .345.
How about walks for Bonds? He trotted down to first 198 times last year and 177 in 2001, and I don't see him varying from those totals much. I'll take the middle ground and say 187.
Home runs for Yankees "rookie" Hideki Matsui? Ichiro-Mania has given birth to a whole new breed of hype whenever an international star migrates to a MLB roster, and this year it's Matsui who's standing in the spotlight. In the middle of that Yankee lineup, Hideo Nomo could hit 20 homers and drive in 80 runs so I'll be a little generous here and forecast a 30/95 season for "Godzilla."
And finally, for all you fellow Indians fans out there, I've got to give a prediction on the 2003 season for our rebuilding Tribe. As my AL ROY pick above indicates, I really like the Hafner kid and can't believe it took just Einar Diaz and Ryan Drese to get him (thanks John Hart). I'm also pumped to see guys like Brandon Phillips and Milton Bradley develop, and when was the last time the Indians had so many mouth-watering arms in the minors? Still, this is all in the early developmental stages, which makes it hard for me to be too optimistic about 2003. My father-in-law told me he expects .500 or better. I don't see it. The staff is crammed with potential and I think Baez is going to be a beast at the back end of the bullpen, but let's be realistic here. C.C. Sabathia should continue to develop but we're not talking about a 20-game winner here... not yet, anyway. I love what I've seen from Ricardo Rodriguez and Jason Davis, but the presence of Brian Anderson and Jason Bere should tell everybody that most of these young guys aren't yet ready for The Show. Offensively, they tore up spring competition... but so did the Royals. These young guys will play extremely well at times but they'll also make some rookie mistakes (we saw both ends of that spectrum in the Opening-Day loss to the Orioles). In the end, I see something along the lines of 70-75 wins, with that jump to .500 coming in 2004 and then another string of AL Central championships kicking off in 2005.
So there it is, my 2003 baseball preview, in a sense. Ya know, sometimes the coolest thing about being a sports writer is you've got irrefutable proof when your thoughts and predictions are dead on.
And sometimes, the worst thing about being a sports writer is you've got irrefutable proof when your thoughts and predictions are way off.
Either way, it should be another fantastic season, and when it's all wrapped up in October, I'll revisit this column to see how accurate my forecasts were.
Unless they're all inaccurate, in which case I'll bury this column and hope nobody remembers just how foolish I was.
Questions/comments? Send
all e-mails to jcodding@bullz-eye.com.