It's do or die already?
09/18/2002
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Whodathunkit?
Here we are, about to turn the page to week three of the NFL schedule, and already we're hearing those two little words that haunt struggling teams with postseason aspirations:
"Must" and "win."
Some people say it's way too early to start labeling games as "must-wins" for certain teams, but tell that to, among others, Mike Martz and Bill Cowher. Picked by some to meet in this season's Super Bowl, the Rams and Steelers are now faced with identical 0-2 records, a pitiful start that very few teams are able to overcome.
Are they done? Hardly. Let's not forget that there are still 14 games to go and both teams, with fewer mistakes and a little luck, are capable of reeling off a string of victories that'll have fans everywhere suddenly forgetting about those winless starts.
But it won't be easy.
The Rams, who started the 2001 season 6-0 after kicking off the 2000 campaign with a 5-0 record, dropped their first game this year in Denver 23-16. Quarterback Kurt Warner was solid but unspectacular in that debut, throwing for 315 yards while completing 32 of his 41 pass attempts, but he failed to record a touchdown while uncorking his first interception of the young season. Reigning MVP Marshall Faulk, meanwhile, just couldn't get the St. Louis ground game rolling, rushing for 19 yards on 10 carries, numbers that made his career-high 14 receptions a little less impressive.
Then the New York Giants, coming off their own week-one defeat at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers, did the unthinkable: They sent the Rams staggering to an 0-2 start with their 26-21 win in St. Louis. Favored by nearly two touchdowns, St. Louis again couldn't get much going offensively against a Giants team that had limited the 'Niners to just 16 points in their opening loss. Warner was ineffective once more, throwing two costly interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown by Jason Sehorn, and the usually reliable Faulk lost a key fumble on a fourth-and-one run with just over three minutes to go in the game.
There were two constants in both games for the former champs, the first being the rather mediocre performances by their All-Pro tandem of Warner and Faulk. Regarded by many as the best quarterback in football, Warner has thrown just one touchdown this season versus three interceptions, and his 81.3 QB rating is pathetic when compared to his career mark of 101.8. As for Faulk, his numbers look great on the surface: 24 rushes, 106 yards, 21 receptions, 127 yards, three touchdowns. But why hasn't Martz used the guy more often in the running game? It's obvious that Warner is struggling right now, but you've got the best running back on the planet in your backfield. Problem solved, right?
So what's with those 24 carries? That's just 12 attempts per game -- I don't get it. The guy's sporting a healthy 4.4 yards/carry average and you're not giving him the ball more often?
I'm thoroughly confused.
Arizona's Thomas Jones has 41 attempts in two games. Buffalo's Travis Henry has 43. William Green, Cleveland's unimpressive rookie, has 25 attempts, as does Tampa's Michael Pittman. Hell, even Michael Vick's run the ball 19 times in two games. So why only 24 carries for Faulk? I mean, I know you've got a great quarterback behind center and you want him chucking the ball downfield, but judging by Warner's numbers and that winless record, something's just not working. Why hasn't Mike Martz figured it out yet?
Of course, Lovie Smith's defense hasn't really cooperated either, surrendering an average of 342.5 yards per game, a total that places the Rams in the middle of the pack. And how about the 478 passing yards the St. Louis secondary has allowed? That's the 10th-highest total in football, far behind last year's 10th-best defense against the pass, a unit that allowed just 192.9 passing yards/game.
Yes, it's early, but if you're a Rams fan you have to be worried about what you've seen in these two opening losses.
Even more ominous, though, is this Monday's trip to Tampa Bay. St. Louis is 0-2 the past two seasons against the Bucs, a number this Rams team is all too familiar with right now.
As treacherous as the early going has been for Warner and Faulk, though, it's nothing compared to what Kordell Stewart and the Steelers have put Pittsburgh fans through the past two weeks. An opening loss to the Patriots on Monday Night Football, 30-14, was followed up by another rotten performance against the Raiders at Heinz Field, 30-17. With this week's bye, at least Bill Cowher knows he won't have to assess the damage from yet another loss on Monday morning.
Last season the Steelers advanced to the AFC Championship Game behind a tight defense and a version of Kordell Stewart that made fewer mistakes than in past years. Sure, he also didn't make very many big plays for his team but, with the defensive unit Cowher put on the field every week he knew he would be successful with a conservative Kordell handing the ball off to Jerome Bettis 25 times every Sunday.
The formula worked -- Stewart only threw 14 touchdowns but in 16 starts he also gave up just 11 interceptions, an acceptable ratio for a guy who, in 1998 and 1999 combined, totaled 17 touchdowns versus 28 picks. Pittsburgh finished the year at 13-3, tops in the AFC, thanks to a defense that surrendered the fewest yards in the NFL and the third-lowest point total at 212.
In their two losses this year, though, that winning formula has changed. Dramatically.
Kordell's sporting a QB rating of 68.0, completing just 59% of his passes with three touchdowns and four interceptions, including three in that MNF loss to the Pats. He's making terrible decisions again, throwing the ball into double coverage on a seemingly regular basis. And to make matters worse, Cowher can't get Bettis rolling because every time he looks at the scoreboard his team's in a hole.
Believe me, as a Browns fan I'm really not complaining about all this, just making observations.
Then there's the defense. Sixty points combined in these two early losses... . Last year opposing teams never scored more than 24 points against the AFC Central champs and the most points the Steelers gave up over a two-game span was 40. Running backs couldn't find any room against their stingy front seven and opposing quarterbacks didn't have it much easier.
Against New England and Oakland, though, the rush defense has been mediocre while the pass defense has been horrendous. Super Bowl MVP Tom Brady completed 29 of his 43 attempts for 294 yards and three touchdowns (no interceptions) in week one, a performance that apparently caught the attention of Raiders head coach Bill Callahan because, last Sunday night Oakland's 36-year-old quarterback, Rich Gannon, attempted a whopping passes, completing 43 for 403 yards and a touchdown. Even worse for the Steelers, though, was that Gannon threw two costly interceptions deep into Pittsburgh territory, making the final, ugly score even a little misleading.
Last year's top-rated defense got its sorry ass kicked in two consecutive weeks, and now that other teams know just how vulnerable Cowher's secondary is, they can expect even more aerial assaults. "Until we show we can stop it, teams are going to keep doing it," the bearded head coach said after Gannon's big game. "We've got to get it fixed or it's going to be a long season."
If Kordell Stewart doesn't figure it out real soon, it may be an excruciatingly long 2002 season in Pittsburgh regardless of how the defense plays from here on out.
But the Rams and Steelers aren't the only two hopeful contenders who find themselves in potentially dangerous waters heading into week three. The New York Jets are 1-1 following a thorough beating at the hands of Brady and the Patriots last weekend, 44-7, and now they're traveling to Miami this Sunday in what could easily be a trip that'll end with the Jets trying to figure out how to recover from a 1-2 start. The Titans, trying to rebound from an abysmal 2001 season, pulled off an encouraging come-from- behind victory over the Eagles in week one only to drop a gimme to the Cowboys last Sunday before hosting a solid Cleveland team this weekend.
In the NFC, Steve Spurrier's Redskins looked pathetic on Monday night against a suffocating Eagles defense, losing 37-7. Unfortunately for the 'Skins, there's no relief in sight:
September 22: at San Francisco
September 29: bye
October 6: at Tennessee
October 13: vs. New Orleans
October 20: at Green Bay
October 27: vs. Indianapolis
Yikes. And let's not forget that December 15th game at Philadelphia... .
Much like the Titans, the Minnesota Vikings are trying to put an ugly 2001 season behind them this year, but despite being outscored by just 10 points in their first two games, Mike Tice and the Vikes find themselves 0-2 heading into a game with the 2-0 Panthers. Meanwhile, as you already know, the Buccaneers, at 1-1, host the Rams this Sunday and the 1-1 49ers welcome Washington. Hell, even the Falcons, at 0-2, deserve a better fate after losing to the Packers by three in overtime and then, last week, dropping a heartbreaker to the Bears, 14-13.
Yeah, maybe it's a little early to start talking about must-wins and pivotal match-ups, but on the field you can bet there are plenty of players and coaches who are already feeling the pressure. Drop to 0-3 and you may never recover, but move to 1-2 on the season and suddenly you're just one win away from .500 and a clean slate. The difference on paper isn't much but don't underestimate the importance of one key win in the locker room.
As for the Rams and Steelers, I don't think I'm ready to dismiss them -- there's simply too much football left to be played. And while the St. Louis offense appears to be out of synch and I'm certainly no Kordell Stewart believer, I wouldn't doubt that Mike Martz and Bill Cowher can figure this thing out before the season slips through their fingers.
Sure, 0-2 may look dismal now, but let's not forget that Bill Belichick's bunch lost their first two games last year to Cincinnati and the Jets, and I'm pretty sure they recovered.
In the Bullz-Eye
The Nebraska Cornhuskers. After losing to Penn State 40-7 last Saturday, the Huskers fell from #7 in the rankings all the way down to #19. It was a lame performance for Frank Solich's team: 476 total yards allowed, 76 yards passing, three interceptions, no takeaways and just one sack. With #24 Iowa State on the schedule this weekend, the Huskers suddenly find themselves in their own tough spot.
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