A winning combination
09/06/2001
Codding Home / Sports Channel / Bullz-Eye Home
You smell that? Sweat-soaked jerseys, mud-encrusted cleats, grass-stained knees. Pigskin. Blood. Testosterone. Cases of cheap beer and bags of barbequed chips on chilly Sunday afternoons. Take a deep breath, guys... .
It's football season.
No more pitching changes, hit-and-runs, and called third strikes. It's time for nickel coverages, first-and- 10s, and three step drops. Summer's gone, fall is here, and with the drop in temperature comes football, a man's game. A safety-blitz-halfback-sweep-button-hook-QB-keeper-stiff-arm-take-a-knee-unnecessary- roughness game, and we love it. We're talking five months of sanctioned ass-kicking on a 120-yard field.
Of course, I'm a Browns fan so we have four months of getting our asses kicked, but it's still football. Sort of, anyway.
It's time to celebrate, boys, because Sunday no longer represents your final 24 hours of freedom before another work week rolls around. Sunday is now football day. And if that special woman in your life really cares about you, it's your day.
With the season set to kick off this Sunday, most NFL teams think they've got a shot at postseason play. Sure, the chances of the Browns, Bengals, Cowboys and Bears -- among others -- making the playoffs this year are about as slim as Gilbert Brown's waistline, but everyone starts out undefeated, and anything can happen after that. Several teams are pinning their hopes on some fresh, new faces -- Michael Vick in Atlanta, LaDainian Tomlinson in San Diego, Michael Bennett in Minnesota, David Terrell in Chicago.
Jerry Jones in Dallas.
But what exactly is the key to winning in the NFL? A mobile quarterback who can pick up yards on the ground? A suffocating defense that can pressure the quarterback? A talented set of wide receivers who can stretch the field? A bruising running back who can go head-to-head with any middle linebacker? A pocket passer with a silky release and great field vision?
Last season, the Dolphins, Colts, Titans, Ravens, Raiders and Broncos climbed into the AFC playoffs, while in the NFC the Giants, Eagles, Vikings, Buccaneers, Rams and Saints received postseason invitations. And in the end the Ravens prevailed, beating Denver, Tennessee, Oakland and then the Giants to take home a Super Bowl victory. How did these teams succeed?
Of the 12 playoff participants, only four ranked lower than 10th in the NFL in both yards and points allowed per game: the Broncos (24th/23rd), Colts (21st/15th), Vikings (28th/24th) and Rams (23rd/31st). Of those four teams, only one, Minnesota, managed to sneak past their first playoff opponent; Denver lost 21-3 to Baltimore in the opening round, Indianapolis fell 23-17 to Miami and the Rams were shocked by the Saints 31-28. As for the Vikings, who got kicked around by the Giants in the NFC Championship game, they probably would rather have just lost their opening game against the Saints, saving themselves the embarrassment of a 41-0 loss to the G-Men.
Of course, everyone knows how categorically dominating the Ravens defense was last season, ranking second in the NFL in opponents' yards/game and first in points allowed. The Titans were just as impressive, though, ranking ahead of Baltimore in yards allowed and right behind the Ravens in points allowed. Meanwhile, the Dolphins (6th/3rd), Raiders (17th/9th), Saints (8th/10th), Giants (5th/5th), Eagles (10th/4th) and Buccaneers (9th/7th) also featured stingy defenses.
So does that mean a powerful defensive unit can lead you to victory? Not necessarily.
The Bills ranked third in the NFL last season in yards allowed, the Steelers ranked seventh in yards allowed and sixth in points allowed, the Redskins ranked fourth and seventh, respectively, and even the Lions ranked 14th and 11th. Yet these four teams combined for a very ordinary 34-30 record, and of course none of them qualified for the playoffs. What gives?
Let's take a look at offensive numbers. The Rams ranked first in the NFL in passing yards/game last season, followed by Indy in second and Denver in third. The Vikings were seventh, the Giants 13th, the Saints 14th, the Raiders 15th, Tennessee 16th, Philly 20th, Baltimore 22nd, Tampa Bay 26th and Miami 27th. See a trend? Again, the Rams, Colts and Broncos all lost in the first round of the playoffs last season and the Vikings didn't fare much better. Of course, the Titans and Bucs also lost in the first round, but Tennessee fell to the Ravens and Tampa... well, the Bucs pulled off their usual choke job.
Now I'm not going to sit here and say good passing teams have no chance of winning the Super Bowl, but as many of the NFL's elite proved last season, you don't have to be gunslingers to win in the 21st Century NFL. Conversely, six of the league's top-10 passing teams -- San Francisco, Kansas City, the Jets, Packers, Jags and Redskins -- failed to make the playoffs, and their combined 46-50 record was abysmal.
So if I've already proven that, A. you can't necessarily win on a strong defense alone, and B. a prolific passing game doesn't guarantee success either in the regular season or the postseason, then what's left?
Ah yes, the ground game.
Is there anything prettier in sports than watching a running back tip-toe through a crowded defensive line, make a linebacker look foolish with a spin-move and a quick stutter-step and finally plow over a tiny defensive back on his way to a 40-yard touchdown gallop?
Every playoff team from last year could efficiently run the ball. The Raiders led the league in rushing yards/game, Denver was third, Baltimore fifth, Minnesota sixth, the Titans seventh, New Orleans eighth, the Bucs ninth, Giants 11th, Miami 14th, Philly 15th, Indy 16th and the Rams 17th. Those numbers are even a bit misleading, though, as the Colts and Rams, the lowest-ranked teams in the group, have perhaps the NFL's most dangerous players in their respective backfields, Edgerrin James and Marshall Faulk.
Six of the NFL's top 10 running backs suited up for playoff teams last season, with Edge's 1,709 rushing yards leading the way. Minnesota's Robert Smith, who retired after the 2000 season, ranked second in the NFL with 1,521 yards, Tennessee's Eddie George was third with 1,509 yards, Denver's Mike Anderson was fourth with 1,500 yards, Baltimore's Jamal Lewis, out for this year with a torn ACL, was seventh with 1,364 and Faulk was eighth with 1,359. Of the remaining six playoff teams, only one did not have a 1,000-yard rusher last year -- the Eagles. Miami got a surprising 1,139 yards and 14 touchdowns from Lamar Smith, while the Raiders were paced by Tyrone Wheatley's 1,046 yards and nine touchdowns, the Giants by Tiki Barber's 1,006 yards (and Ron Dayne's 770), the Bucs by Warrick Dunn's 1,133 yards and eight touchdowns, and the Saints by Ricky Williams' 1,000 yards and eight scores.
In total, 23 running backs ran for at least 1,000 yards last season, and 11 of those helped lead their respective teams to the postseason. Obviously, having a 1,000-yard rusher didn't lock up a postseason appearance -- just like having a top quarterback or a premier defense didn't. But it certainly didn't hurt.
So what's the best formula for success in today's NFL? Let's break it down, team-by-team:
Miami: strong defense, weak passing game, strong running game
Indy: weak defense, strong passing game, strong running game
Tennessee: strong defense, weak passing game, strong running game
Baltimore: strong defense, weak passing game, strong running game
Oakland: good defense, good passing game, strong running game
Denver: weak defense, strong passing game, strong running game
New York: strong defense, good passing game, good running game
Philly: strong defense, good passing game, good running game
Minnesota: weak defense, strong passing game, strong running game
Tampa Bay: strong defense, weak passing game, strong running game
St. Louis: weak defense, strong passing game, strong running game
New Orleans: strong defense, good passing game, strong running game
Four teams -- the Colts, Broncos, Vikings and Rams -- played well in the regular season but failed to do much of anything come playoff time behind great offenses and poor defenses. On the other end of the spectrum, Tennessee and Baltimore used great defensive play and lethal running games to overshadow their mediocre quarterbacks while compiling the two best records in football -- 13-3 and 12-4. Miami, Oakland and the Giants used similar set-ups to claim their respective division crowns. Is it a coincidence that the Ravens beat the Giants in the Super Bowl and the Raiders in the AFC Championship game, Miami lost to Oakland in the second round and the Titans, who many insiders considered the most dangerous team in football last season, lost to Baltimore?
In total, all 12 of last year's playoff teams ranked in the top-17 in rushing yardage, and seven of those teams also fell somewhere in the top-10 in total defense, but only four of the top-10 teams in passing yards saw the postseason.
Obviously, if you've got an offense that can put up four or five touchdowns a game and a lock-down defense that yields only a handful of points every Sunday, you can play with anyone in football. But last year there weren't any teams with that kind of universal balance. Instead, the NFL's most successful teams were able to run the ball effectively while also playing exceptional defense. Passing, as the Ravens proved, was optional.
Will that combination win again in 2001-02? Who knows, but it's interesting to note that the Colts, Broncos and Rams upgraded their porous defensive units while Baltimore, Oakland, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay all made some significant offensive changes. Bad news could be on the horizon for last year's champs, though -- the Ravens added quarterback Elvis Grbac but lost Lewis because of a knee injury, and as they and several other teams demonstrated last season, to win in this league you'd better be able to run the ball. And with that in mind, I'd keep a close eye on three teams this year: the Titans (again), the Eagles, who will receive a shot in the arm with the return of running back Duce Staley, and the Rams, assuming those changes make a difference in Mike Martz's defense.
It should be another great season either way. Now, who needs a beer?
In the Bullz-Eye
Boston Red Sox general manager Dan Duquette. It's obvious this moron has lost the respect of his players, coaches and fans, and with another miserably disappointing season about to come to a gruesome conclusion in Beantown, Duquette's reputation and his job security could both be destroyed before the end of the month.