Buckle up and enjoy the ride
08/15/2001
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All those baseball purists who claim the wild card has ruined their precious sport are clueless. As we approach late August, at least 14 teams are realistically sniffing an invitation to this fall's playoffs, while three or four more are one hot streak away from serious contention. That's 18 out of baseball's 30 teams still jockeying for postseason position and, even more important, 18 cities and their fans still dreaming of October baseball and victory parades. Take away the wild card and that number falls to 11 or 12. In another few weeks, at least two or three more teams would have tumbled out of the playoff picture.
But that's the exact reason the wild card was instituted in 1995 -- it gives teams like Oakland and San Francisco a second crack at a championship ring. Without it, Seattle's 17-game lead in the AL West would have buried the A's in June, and Boston may already have conceded the East crown to the Yankees. Instead, Oakland sits atop the AL wild card standings, two games ahead of the Red Sox and four ahead of the floundering Twins. The NL wild card race, meanwhile, is tighter than Louie Anderson's jeans after a long night at an all-you-can-eat sushi bar. Five teams are separated by a mere four games, with the Cubs leading the way and the Giants, Dodgers, Braves and Cardinals playing catch-up.
Of course, all of this means the final couple months of the season are going to be absolutely crazy, and I'd suggest paying close attention. In the American League, Oakland, Boston, New York, Cleveland, Minnesota and Seattle play each other 41 times between now and the end of the season, while in the National League Philadelphia, Atlanta, Houston, Chicago, St. Louis, Arizona, San Francisco and LA double that number, facing off a whopping 82 times before season's end. In other words, you've gotta fight your way in this year. And it'll be fun to watch.
Take a look at the American League East. Even after getting swept by Oakland, the Yankees currently sit four games ahead of Boston with a 70-49 record. But these two teams square off twice more this year, a three-game series in Boston from August 31 to September 2, then in New York for a four-game affair starting September 7. The Red Sox also have six games remaining with the Indians -- in Cleveland from August 28-30 and in Boston from September 4-6 -- four in Anaheim starting August 20, and then the final two games of their current three-game series versus Seattle. That's 18 of Boston's remaining 45 games against playoff-caliber teams, 10 of those on the road. As for the Yankees, Seattle comes to town for a three-game series beginning August 17, then they head to Anaheim from August 24-26 before facing the White Sox for six more games in mid-September.
The AL Central race may be just about finished. Fresh off an embarrassing four-game sweep at the hands of the Devil Rays, the Twins blew the first game of their current three-game series against division-leading Cleveland Tuesday night, and since the All Star break Minnesota has stumbled to a 9-23 record, going 3-2 against Oakland, 0-7 against Seattle and 1-3 against the Indians in that span. But as badly as they're playing now, the Twins could still sneak into the playoffs if their bats heat up. At only 2.5 games behind the Tribe in the Central standings, Minnesota still has five games to play at Jacobs Field and another three, from September 21-23, against the Indians at the Metrodome. And actually, the Twins' remaining schedule is pretty weak, with six games versus the Angels from September 31-August 2 and September 7-9, and then six more against the White Sox in mid- and late-September being their only tough match ups -- aside from those with the Tribe -- from here on out. Of course, the Devil Rays come to town on September 17 for a three-game swing, so that could spell trouble for Tom Kelly's squad.
As light as the Twins' schedule is, though, the Indians find themselves facing a pretty tough homestretch. After concluding the ongoing three-game series against Minnesota, the Angels come to town for the weekend of August 17. Then Charlie Manuel takes his team on a seven-game West Coast trip from August 20-26 for four games in Oakland and three in Seattle, before heading back to Cleveland to take on the Red Sox on August 28. Then it's off to Chicago for a four-gamer at Comiskey, three more games in Boston from September 4-6, and then another four games versus the Pale Hose in Cleveland starting September 7. That makes 27-straight games against potential playoff teams before the Indians get somewhat of a break in mid-September. Then, of course, there are those six remaining games against the Twins from September 21-23 and 28-30, giving the Tribe 33 games out of 44 against .500 or better teams. (Actually, the White Sox are 58-59... but that's close enough.)
The AL West is won. Period. With an 18-game lead over Oakland, Seattle will cruise into October with baseball's best record. But Oakland, with that slim lead in the wild card race, still has a rough road ahead, with three games at Comiskey from August 17-19, then back to Oakland for four against the Indians starting September 23. The schedule lightens up a bit after that, though, when the A's get to beat up on the Tigers, Orioles, Rays and Rangers for 18-straight games before heading over to Anaheim on September 13 for four games. Manager Art Howe would love to have a comfortable wild card lead by then, though, as Oakland wraps up the 2001 regular season with three games at home against the Mariners, three against the Angels and then another three against the Mariners in Seattle. With those 18 games against the AL's most pathetic teams, the scorching A's, who have won 14 of their last 17, just may have that wild card wrapped up by mid-September.
So who gets the chance to play spoiler in the American League? Well, the Devil Rays face New York, Boston, Minnesota and Oakland 24 more times this year (nine against the Yankees, six against the Red Sox, three in Minnesota and six against the A's) while the Orioles have 22 games versus New York (six), Boston (10) and Oakland (six), and Toronto faces off 16 times against the Yankees (six), Indians (six) and Twins (four). Then there's the Angels and White Sox, who find themselves five and nine games out of the wild card race, respectively -- Anaheim has 23 remaining games against the Yankees (three), Red Sox (four), Indians (three), Twins (six) and A's (seven), as does Chicago, with six against the Yanks, eight against the Tribe, six versus Minnesota and three against Oakland.
Personally, I see the playoff picture looking something like this come October:
East
While the return of Pedro Martinez gives the Red Sox an emotional boost, it just
isn't enough to catapult the Sox into first. The Yankees hold off Boston,
padding their lead during the weak tail-end of their schedule.
Central
Despite their tough schedule, the Indians bury the Twins thanks to those
late-September head-to-head games and Minnesota's anemic offense and imploding
bullpen. The White Sox, meanwhile, find a 7.5-game deficit is just too much to
overcome in August and September.
West
The Texas Rangers surge into first... . No, obviously the Mariners take the
crown, but with their own rather rocky schedule, Seattle won't quite match the
Yankees' record-114 regular season wins.
Wild Card
Pedro's return will make the wild card even tighter, but with the best 1-2-3
rotation punch in the American League (Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito),
Oakland pulls through by the slimmest of margins.
Next week, I'll take a closer look at the National League's divisional and wild card races. Stay tuned... .
In the Bullz-Eye
Dallas Cowboys QB Quincy Carter. With the surprising release of quarterback Tony Banks, it looks like the Cowboys are ready to hand the starting job over to Carter, the 6-2 rookie out of Georgia. The move shocked everyone in football, especially Banks, who had been promised the starting job when he signed with Dallas for well-below market value this offseason. Now, with Troy Aikman retired and Banks looking for work somewhere else (possibly Washington), it's "trial by fire" time for Carter and the 'Boys.