Have the mighty fallen?

Have the mighty fallen?

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Since 1995, no American League team not residing in either New York or Cleveland has represented the Junior Circuit in the World Series. The Indians lost to the Atlanta Braves in the 1995 Series, the Yankees beat the Braves in 1996, the Tribe again lost in 1997, this time to the Florida Marlins, and the Yankees took out San Diego in 1998 and the Braves again in 1999.

As any diligent baseball fan should know, if the playoffs started today (the phrase every overachieving team loves to hear), the Indians and Yankees would both be left behind as the postseason party started. Now obviously, we haven't even hit the All-Star break yet (which, coincidentally, is the phrase every underachieving team loves to hear), but that's a pretty ominous sign for the two perennial powerhouses. Is this miraculous run over with?

As it currently stands, both Cleveland and New York are five games behind Oakland for the wildcard slot. Both are struggling to overcome injury problems and both are hearing league-wide whispers of their respective downfalls. Everyone in baseball knew John Hart and George Steinbrenner would not sit on their hands while their teams crumbled, but how many would have predicted a trade between the two franchises? On Thursday, after failing to land either Juan Gonzalez or Sammy Sosa, the Yankees turned to Cleveland's David Justice for the power bat they wanted. In return, the Indians got outfielder Ricky Ledee and two players to be named later.

The Yankees and the Indians agreeing to a trade? Hart and Steinbrenner? Hart's worst nightmare probably is Manny Ramirez leaving via free agency and signing with the Bronx Bombers next year, while Steinbrenner entered the Randy Johnson sweepstakes in 1998 only to raise the ante because he was afraid the Indians were about to trade for the lefty.

But the deal makes sense for both teams. Hart has been itching to lose Justice's hefty contract for years and the Yankees were finally able to snag the bat they needed. And with Ledee, the Indians have one of the bargaining chips the Yankees have been dangling in front of teams for a month, which could mean a short stop at Jacob's Field for the young outfielder. Now maybe Hart uses Ledee to entice the Rangers to let John Wetteland go, or to snag Andy Ashby from Philadelphia. And he's even got an extra $6.5 million in his pocket now, money he will try to use to keep Ramirez in Cleveland. The Indians and Yankees are scrambling. Roger Clemens is banged up, Chuck Knoblauch has been taking target practice at fans sitting along the first base line, and the Indians are relying on pitchers named Kane Davis and Paul Rigdon to keep them in a pennant race. With the Blue Jays and White Sox playing nearly flawless baseball all season, the end may be near for the two rivals.

But since 1995, only one team in the AL or NL has given up more runs than they've scored in a season and still made the playoffs: the San Francisco Giants. In 1997, the Giants scored 784 runs while allowing 790 and were 90-72, finishing two games ahead of the Dodgers. As of Thursday, the Blue Jays had given up 450 runs and scored 442. Aside from David Wells and an occasional flash from Frank Castillo, the Jays' starting pitching is horrendous. Castillo, Kelvim Escobar, Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay have a combined record of 20 wins and 24 losses while giving up 213 earned runs in just over 330 innings. That's an ERA of almost 5.80. Sure, the team is knocking the holy hell out of the ball, but simple mathematics, and a general understanding of the game, will tell you that if you're scoring fewer runs than the opposition, you're losing. If Toronto's pitchers don't step it up soon, history doesn't give them much of a shot at postseason glory. And the Yankees still are well within striking distance if Toronto falters.

The Indians meanwhile are looking at an 8.5 game deficit. With injuries to Ramirez, Charles Nagy and Jaret Wright, the team hasn't been healthy all season and the White Sox have taken advantage, winning seven of 10 from Cleveland. Riding the arms of James Baldwin and Cal Eldred has paid off for the Sox so far, but how long can their success last? In Baldwin's 121 career starts before this season, he's gone 48-41 with an ERA above 5.00. He pitched a total of three complete games and zero shutouts. This season he's 10-3 in 15 starts with a 3.88 ERA. He's tossed two complete games, one of which was a shutout. But he's given up 17 homeruns in just under 100 innings, which translates into roughly 40 for a full season! Eldred hasn't been fully healthy since 1997 and hasn't won more than 15 games since 1993. This year he's 10-2 with a 3.91 ERA. Keith Foulke, the Sox closer who seemed unhittable a month ago, has given up15 of his 18 earned runs in his last 11.1 innings on the mound. Chicago has played well so far, but how will the youngsters like Paul Konerko and Carlos Lee react to a pennant race in a couple of months?

So while it may seem like the AL is moving toward a younger and more exciting champ this season, there's still a lot of baseball to be played. The Justice/Ledee trade shows the Indians and Yankees are coming to grips with their weaknesses and aren't backing down just yet. Championship teams definitely can be beat, but they never simply roll over.

 
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