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World Cup Preview 2002:
What to watch for if you're a beginner
by: John Palazzo
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Having lived in Italy for three years, a place where the Pope lives but football is definitely the biggest religion, I started to naturally gravitate to the biggest church in Italy, San Siro Stadium in Milano. At the beginning I was a season-ticket holder for Inter Milan, looking for something to do on Sunday, but eventually the passion got into my soul and now I am a true football junkie.
Football fever started to burn even deeper when after three years in Italy, I moved to a small town in England and took up as a fan for a minor league team, Thame United FC. Watching minor league football allowed me, strangely enough, a new appreciation of how fantastic the big league players are. The precision and speed that the major European level players execute at is truly astounding. Once you can see that and grasp it, football starts to seep into your genes.
If you just examine the raw number of global fans who follow football, there is NO sporting event in the world of more importance than the World Cup. Imagine if all nations on earth played American football and did so at high skill levels. Can you visualize the intensity with which an American might follow a global tournament of American football? Well, 80% of the globe lives and dies for football and as such, the World Cup is second to none in passion and intensity. Just as much of the world watches the NFL Super Bowl, most American fans who don't normally enjoy football can still taste the electricity transmitted by a world cup game. Therefore, prepare to crack open a beer and taste the passion of the greatest sporting event on the planet.
If you are a novice fan, a quick starter course in football will add greatly to your enjoyment. If you focus on three basic aspects of the match you should be able to grasp a bit more quickly what is happening on the field of play.
Time of possession. The team that controls the ball most likely has a better formation and tactics in place.
Don't focus exclusively on the forwards. Forwards in football are like closers in baseball. The forward position is the most visible role in any game and you can't win without a good "closer," but the nuts and bolts of football are positioning the ball into the scoring area more times than your opponent (the more at-bats you take, the better your chances to hit a homer). Controlling the ball and moving it into the scoring area depend entirely on strong play in the midfield and on defense.
When I first moved to Italy, I used to put particular focus on watching Laurent Blanc, an Inter defender who led the French defense in the last World Cup. Blanc was an experienced but slow player who was a genius at reading opponent tactics and anticipating the required positioning of himself and his fellow defenders for the likely move of the opponent. It's no accident that France won the World Cup in 1998 and the Europe Cup in 2000. Without Blanc on the field in 2002, France will be hard pressed to keep winning.
Focusing on midfield and defense play will allow you to understand "why" a team is controlling the ball (or not controlling the ball).
The "closers." Study who the star forwards are and note their movements when the ball moves into the scoring area. With today's incredible talent levels and sophisticated defensive tactics, it takes a special player to be able to score with consistency.
Football is a team game of 11 players and the great beauty of football is that if you find a team of players willing to sacrifice their individual egos and execute the strategy of a well prepared coach, a lesser talented group can rise up to defeat a team of superstars. However, modern football history shows us those teams might be able to make a surprise rise into the final eight or four, although overwhelming talent is still king in terms of winning the World cup. Even so, every World Cup seems to produce a surprise team that manages to rise to the quarterfinals or semifinals, and there is always hope that one year the Cinderella team will take it all. I'll predict the most likely suspects for a Cinderella team in 2002 a little later.
Now let's go to a team-by-team World Cup preview, making special note of the superstar players that are likely to have a protagonist role in the World Cup.
Front runners:
Teams with a better than 50% chance to reach the semifinals.
Italy: The Italians have the deepest and most balanced team. Further, the Italians are famous for playing an aggressive, suffocating defense that is extremely difficult to penetrate. If you don't give up goals you cannot lose and hence the Italians find themselves a frequent visitor to the World Cup's final four. The difference between this year's Italian team and the last Italian World Cup side is that Italy now has three forwards playing at world-class levels. With Vieri and Del Piero leading the Italians out front and Montella on the bench to deliver a second half burst, the Italians are in my mind the odds-on-favorites to win the World Cup in 2002. Having forwards that deliver on a high percentage of their chances is a key for the Italians because their tactic is to suffocate opponents on defense, and as a result the Italians usually get fewer shots on goal than most leading teams.
Key player: The Italian forwards are marvelous but the key player for Italy is superstar midfielder
Franceso Totti, a midfielder/forward whose job it will be to penetrate with the ball into the scoring area and distribute so that Italy's star forwards have a chance to put the ball in the goal.
Match-up notes: The Italians look to have the easiest path to the semifinals with a probable second-round match with Poland and a quarterfinal match-up against either Germany or Ireland. None of these teams would appear to have the skills to knock the Italians out of the tournament.
France: France has the world's best football player, midfielder Zinedine Zidane. His precision and decision-making are simply astounding. I once followed Zidane an entire game when he played for Juventus in Italy, and I didn't count one bad pass in 90 minutes. Zidane will assure that his world-class attackers Thierry Henry and Trezeguet get many good opportunities. I list France as having only a slightly lower chance than Italy because of the retirement from international play of Laurent Blanc. Without Blanc, France will find themselves much more hard pressed to defend their goal and in the final four, surely one goal could make the difference.
Key player: Zidane.
Match-up notes: France should have an easy time finishing first in their group in round one; however, should they draw England in the second round they will have the fight of their lives on hand just to get to the quarterfinals.
England: The British have for years disappointed in the World Cup mostly because of the schizophrenic nature of their play. One day they would try to play Italian-style defensive football, and the next they would return to the aggressive flanking style that British football is famous for. Ironically now that Britain has dumped their British coach and replaced him with an experienced international, Swedish national Sven Goran Erickson, the Brits have absolutely found their groove. Many are discounting the Brits' chances because star player David Beckham is in doubt for the Cup due to a broken foot. The loss of Beckham is important in the sense that his presence alone opens up space in the scoring area for Britain's forwards due to his incredible range, power and precision from long distances. However, the depth of talent in Britain is second to none, and I am confident that if Beckham cannot play, Erickson will adapt the British strategy to the talents of those playing. I think this means that in 2002 Britain will have a great chance to advance to the final four.
Key player: Beckham is the key player for Britain but in his absence look for young forward
Michael Owen to assume a much stronger role. Owen's creativity in the scoring area is exactly the formula needed to put the ball in the net when defenses are denying space.
Match-up notes: England will have to fight for their lives from the get-go in this tournament as they are in the same round-one group as Argentina, and neither Sweden nor Nigeria are patsies. But adversity builds character and if the Brits win their group they would be well-positioned to go to the semifinals. If they finish second…France awaits.
Argentina: Everybody's favorite to win the World Cup is Argentina but I am going against conventional wisdom. On the strength of the Argentineans' profound depth of superstar talent I would say Argentina has a good chance to advance to the final four; however, that stated, Argentina has a serious hole in their defense on the right flank which is manned by Mauricio Pochettino, a mediocre defender at best. Also in front of Pochettino is Javier Zanetti who, like most Argentineans, is great moving forward but suffers lapses when moving toward his goal, so he won't likely give full support to Argentina's defensive right flank all game long. Look for the better teams to exploit the weakness of Argentina's right side, making them a prime candidate to suffer an upset defeat.
Key player: Noting that Argentina is an aggressive and attacking team with offense always first in mind, it should be mentioned that perhaps the world's best defender plays for the Argentine squad.
Walter Samuel will man the left side of the Argentine defense and probably suffocate any and every effort to penetrate his zone. However, one man does not a defense make.
Also of note: The superstar-laden Argentines have a half dozen other players who are amongst the world's most highly compensated club stars:
Batistuta, Crespo, Lopez, Veron, Simeone and
Zanetti.
Match-up notes: Argentina is in a very tough group for round one. If the Argentines spend a little too much time reading their press clippings, they could be a prime candidate for a shocking round one exit.
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